dizzy9479

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after consultation with the meteorological service of that country. The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast. With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly uncertain, more than usual I would say. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. 2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Avila

At 5 PM they slowed it down to 5 mph

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches). The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location. Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 200 mph - Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas. and will continue for several hours. SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Blake/Zelinsky/Avila

000 WTNT65 KNHC 310027 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 830 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DORIAN STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 km/h). This increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at 1100 pm EDT (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 830 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 71.0W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

Any sleet at least in Turnersville, or all rain? All rain here in Williamstown

Looking at COD radar, it looks like the rain line is encroaching upon Wilmington and the PA/MD line -- a little worried about that.

Flipped to moderate snow here in Williamstown, NJ -- Central Gloucester County. 34.9 F, no sticking yet

Yes, I believe that is correct. It is counted as snow 1:1, but melted equivalent is 3:1 (roughly speaking, of course).

central Gloucester county -- right under the oranges and reds -- about 4 inches here. Started accumulating around 12 PM or so here after lots of rain this morning.

Williamstown, NJ in Central Gloucester County, NJ -- just flipping back to snow! Still warm (36), but good news!

Got a nice thump here in central Gloucester County -- about 2 inches in 2 hours; now back to sheets of rain.

Not surprised at all, but light rain here in central Gloucester County, NJ

Williamstown, NJ - everything not treated is completely a sheet of ice. ZR and 31.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html

Up to 5.8 now: ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 09 SEP 2017 Time : 191500 UTC Lat : 23:11:09 N Lon : 80:16:16 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 5.9 5.9