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About bobbutts

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    Morale on this base is shot to hell. Just look out there.
  • Birthday 04/20/1867

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    Bow NH

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  1. Am I crazy or is this much more common than adjusting eastward? Seems like almost every storm has a predicted turn to the north that gets postponed many times.
  2. If you're going to harass a chaser it should probably be Jeff Piotrowski. (edit: please move to banter thread, didn't mean to have it here)
  3. Inner structure looks pretty disorganized on satellite for a 130mph 954mb. Is the eye so small that it's difficult to see at that resolution or something else?
  4. I can see how people find it upsetting that we're essentially rooting for the strongest possible storm to make landfall in the most heavily populated area. That debate would do better in it's own thread or FAQ or whatever so we don't have to repeat it every time, it never really changes, we've seen all the arguments already.
  5. Yeah. Of course, just looking at some of the damage and debris fields on some of slabs and structures, I'd say Laura's eastern eyewall was pushing more than 5-10 ft. The force alone to take out those residences not on stilts looks like significant surge in the 10-15+ ft variety. Of course it could have been higher. Me thinks we were quite premature on our insignificant surge discussion earlier. Yeah, the various small houses and RV's in the swamp on the helicopter videos are evidence of powerful surge for sure and I don't think those were even from the likely worst hit areas? The only comment I made regarding surge was that Lake Charles seems to have avoided the surge event. I learned my lesson on that by making really dumb posts during Katrina.
  6. No wonder we haven't heard anything out of the communities east of Cameron. 82 is still submerged. Based on State of Louisiana—Highlighting Low-Lying Areas Derived from USGS Digital Elevation Data (PDF) That entire area is 0-5 feet asl. Any flooding is going to be a big problem there.
  7. Friend of FB asked a question and I don't know the answer. Anyone have a meteorological explanation? Or is it just coincidence?
  8. "145 Downtown.." "Stop calling me." Cannot believe he didn't use Do not disturb mode or just turn the damn thing off.
  9. Some folks are really wedded to their SEASON CANCELLED takes from three days ago I think he decided that he wanted to film there but decided it was unsafe so he switched to another SUV and went to a safer place. I really don't know for sure though, I didn't hear him say what he was doing or why.
  10. In terms of surge it's a fair comparison at least if we're talking about Lake Charles. The surge event didn't materialize. Based on the live streams I watched last night I expect the wind damage to be similar or maybe worse than Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. The numbers for Laura may not be as high, but the eyewall was there for a much longer time and there was a period of less sustained winds and big gusts which seemed to cause much damage. Going through the eye of Charley the eyewall featured extremely strong winds on both sides, but it was over very quickly.
  11. Woke up thinking.. "140-145 DOWNTOWN" I think Jeff Piotrowski said it 100 times before melting down over phone calls and not putting it on DND for some reason. Glad Reed Timmer provided a better look and without commentary once he ditched the vehicle on his stream.
  12. Lack of sensor coverage and damage to sensors or other equipment needed to take the measurement during strong winds would contribute to that.
  13. Using only category of storm to determine surge magnitude is of very limited usefulness. I made the mistake of thinking Katrina would not be so bad because it was only a 3 at landfall. Your example of Sandy is another one. My fear of great surge during Charley was another. There are just so many other more important factors than maximum wind speed.