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etudiant

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  1. NYC Central Park was around 1.5", with graupel all afternoon. Overall, a winter event of little note, but driving was really nasty.
  2. Snow in Central Park seems to have ended at 10.45 am, with accumulation of less than an inch.
  3. etudiant

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    This is a 'learning winter', where we all learn humility. Fact is no model set has performed either consistently or reliably this winter, at least for the NYC area. Given that there is plenty of computer power available to throw at these problems, it suggests that there are real shortcomings in the models the forecasts are based on. Hope that the folks at NOAA and elsewhere recognize this and try to rework these fundamentals, because until that happens, things will not improve.
  4. There should be a discount factor for longer term forecasts. So if gfs FV3 projects 4"/hr for 5 days out, discount by a factor of 5. That suggests modest snow at 0.8"/hr. Precedent would probably be supportive of that.
  5. Not at all, rather Gravity Wave is blessed with a full consignment of Celtic genes.
  6. Think it is really wonderful to see how much more variable our weather can be even over the near term, well beyond our current forecasting skills. It sure teaches us humility. That said, what can be learned from this? Are there any elements that we can look at to recognize that the modeling should be skeptically received? Donsutherland1 has pointed to the absent Pacific blocking for one, what are the others?
  7. Sadly that has not translated to any significant snowfall for us NYC residents. Should we expect the balance of winter to be any different?
  8. Funny, I read them as well grounded evaluations of the current situation. Particularly appreciated is that these are much more sober than those provided by some of the more opinionated/enthusiastic forecasters.
  9. Here in Manhattan Central Park, a brief but intense event, with perhaps 0.75 inches of snow deposited in a half hour. Winds probably around 30 mph at peak. Think it was called very accurately by the various observers here.
  10. etudiant

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    For New Yorkers, coming off several years of good snows, a slow winter such as what we appear to be having would be more normal than another above average precipitation season. Only if it stays slow for the next five years would I'd start to be concerned.
  11. etudiant

    Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

    Can't blame the model, it just does what it is told. This should however serve as a cautionary example, to keep people from getting too enamored with some specific model run. Imho, longer range forecasting is still embryonic at best. The skill levels must be embarrassing, but that is ok, we start from a low base. The main concern is that there does not seem to be a clear strategy for improvement other than to get more computer power to allow tighter model grids. Given the erratic performance of the tight grid IBM model, (Deep Thunder, I believe it is called) perhaps that is too optimistic a view. Possibly the models will need to have still better integrated physics, not a quick fix at all.
  12. Thank you for putting this right. The older Pivotal Weather modeling only showed large negative numbers for the anomalies, so if the newer model verifies, we are looking at 40*F negative anomalies in late January. Impressive!
  13. It shows much warmer for 12Z on Jan 28th on Pivotal Weather here: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019011312&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Is this a model difference issue or am I missing something important?
  14. Believe this show temperatures anomalies rather than temperatures. Still seriously chilly though.
  15. The improvements remain modest, at least if the precipitation estimates over the 10 day horizon are the criterion. The stability of the forecast falls very rapidly after day three.
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