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  1. etudiant

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Think this data represents the mass balance for the single year only, so we may have an increment to the total ice mass, rather than a wash. The total Greenland ice cap is estimated at about 2.8 million cubic kilometers, or 2.8 million billion tons of ice, so adding or subtracting a few hundred billion tons does not change the overall picture.
  2. etudiant

    Global warming spike

    Hi StormchaserChuck!, You post these pictures of 500mB anomalies as if they were self explanatory. They are not, at least to ordinary mortals such as myself, so I have no way of judging whether they are meaningful or just pretty pictures. Please help make your message more comprehensible.
  3. etudiant


    I take it you are a strong advocate of nuclear power also, so the challenge of getting peoples attention is compounded.
  4. etudiant

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    It would have been more productive if this kind of more nuanced appraisal had been articulated, rather than the 'doom is at hand' catastrophic AGW stories that have dominated the discussion. As is, climate scientists are consequently somewhat in the position of the boy who cried wolf, their alarm falls on deaf ears among the general public. I
  5. etudiant

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Seems that this is a new thought ' the climate system has a instantaneous state change resulting in multi-meter decadal sea level rise.' There is some evidence in the ice cores that swings can be very abrupt, but afaik, nothing like that is indicated by any of the climate models. So this is postulating a massive model failure, which may well be the case. The counter argument is of course that the current warming has been a cyclical event, somewhat as in the 1920s and that cooling is likely to continue into the 2030s.
  6. etudiant

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2018 OBS Thread

    They have a generator?
  7. etudiant

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2018 OBS Thread

    Betting the grid will hold up? At 111*F, things will get pretty tight imho.
  8. etudiant

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Thanks, I see where you are coming from, the northern oceans are warmer than in 2012 and the pattern of heat anomalies over Russia is similar. Against that, the Greenland to Alaska side of the Arctic is below normal, rather than above. That suggests the direction of the flows will matter. Is there an expectation that the flow direction will be Russia to Canada? I do remember seeing masses of driftwood deposited on the northern shores of Iceland, which the guide told us had come across the Arctic from Russia, so that may be the rule.
  9. etudiant

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The heat is not yet showing up, at least in the DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute) Arctic temperature tracking: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php So where is it? Separately, with all this accumulated oceanic heat, can we forecast a new low for September Arctic ice? What if anything could gum up the process? It is important to couple the measurements to real forecasts, else the utility of the measurements becomes arguable.
  10. etudiant

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Afaik, the Arctic melt is largely driven from below, by warmer ocean water. It would be very useful to have some actual water temperature data characterizing the various currents that impact the Arctic Ocean. Obviously the data is really hard to get, but surely someone has worked this problem.
  11. etudiant

    UV Increasing?

    Ground level UV measurements are not glamorous, plus they vary from place to place. I've not seen data from any of the obvious sites such as Mauna Kea in Hawaii, but that would be a place to start looking. There are plenty of satellite based UV irradiation records however, so one can easily see that the incident flux varies quite a bit over the years.
  12. etudiant


    Your concern is clear, but the evidence for it is less so. We do have some records from the end of the Roman Climate Optimum, things turned colder and wetter in Europe quite abruptly and with no ambiguity. So the situation today is not comparable. Unfortunately, we do not have good records from the time the Medieval Warm Spell began, so we don't know how quickly that warming came about. It could be a useful guide for evaluating current evolution of the climate. What is clear is that climate can change on a dime, so short an interval that it may be below the resolution of the ice cores. That should provide evidence for some sober reflection on part of our leaders.
  13. Just left Central Park at 4.15PM, snow depth 5-6", very wet snow, there had been a period of snizzle ending at 4PM which helped pack things down. Snow is still falling steadily here in Manhattan, so double digits are reasonably likely if this continues through the night as forecast by WU.
  14. etudiant

    long term 5 yrs+

    Was there not a serious snowfall in 1888 in Boston?
  15. etudiant

    Strongest March RNA on record

    Please post a tutorial elucidating what is being monitored, what is RMA, how this is a 'new maximum' and what 'verified'. It would open the door to a dialog which is thus far not happening.