etudiant

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  1. Thank you for your well informed and always temperate contributions.

    Experts such as you make this site. I'm not in the same league, but very much appreciate your inputs.

  2. Just wish there was a little more humility all around. With a reliable instrument record dating back two centuries at most, we have no real experience in the inherent variability of the environment. It would help if there were longer term records of first frosts and such, but afaik, nobody thought that was important until recently. Hence we get excited whenever our short experience base gets exceeded. Great for papers, not necessarily so for actual understanding. icne
  3. Texas decided to stay off the federal infrastructure, so there is no meaningful power transfer possible between Texas and the rest of the USA. Someone would need to pay for the needed gigawatt power links from the rest of the country, if that was indeed available. That said, I think it disgustingly irresponsible to sell power without some minimal reliability standard. In Texas, that apparently was the norm.
  4. The Texas outages were largely the result of there being no legal disincentive for providing unreliable power, just so long as it was cheaper. So no one winterized their turbines, feed water pumps or gas extraction stations, not cost effective. Result was gas powered capacity shut down for lack of gas, nuclear plant offline because the feed water pump sensors froze, coal plants shut because the coal was frozen in and wind turbines dead because they were frozen. Bad regulations caused this debacle, not 'green energy'.
  5. TWC is an IBM company and IBM was loudly advertising their powerful AI based forecasting prowess. So this forecast is perhaps a reality check, there is still lots of room for improvement in this space.
  6. A bold assertion indeed. Not a projection that I can put much stock in. Given how erratic this winter has been, we'll probably wind up with a blizzard in May.
  7. The updated NSIDC trend lines support your supposition. Also the Arctic is considerably warmer than usual this year.. https://cryospherecomputing.tk/
  8. The data on that link also stop at Feb 19th and the scan map shows that one sector was unscanned, which was the cause of the sudden downturn. Maybe a data processing issue with the satellite or the ground station?
  9. No expert, but the data at : https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRT2.html show some sort of glitch since Feb 19th. Is there a better source? Separately, I do agree that the recent ice trends have been suggestive of an early peak, but we do need a better confirm.
  10. Thank you for this helpful link. I'm obviously a dinosaur, but I thought it a mistake to ditch the old style weather maps with the fronts indicated. I don't find the maps with colored blobs of hi and lo pressure as informative.
  11. Is it just me, seeing leak paths all over the place here? Guess I was too long at the fair in suburbia...
  12. Agree entirely, but this is just stupid, not politics. A f***g nuclear plant going off stream because the cooling water pumps were frozen??? Just brain dead greed imho.
  13. Sadly it is only after such catastrophes that we learn to set serious standards. Shipping is safer because of the Titanic, buildings are safer because of the Triangle Shirt Waist fire, Texas had lots of warning that cold spells could be a problem, but no one hit the mule over the head with a 2x4 to help it see reason. Imho this is just another lesson that will soon be forgotten.
  14. Afaik, the grid managers are prioritizing locations with hospitals and similar sensitive facilities, at the expense of residential and industrial sectors. Not sure how easily that is actually implemented though...