etudiant

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  1. Thank you, that is a real contribution to keeping the record straight.
  2. Forecast is for heavy rain Dec 14th, so if your contractor works Saturdays, you should be able to find your leak. That said, my limited experience with leaks is that the water usually drips down some distance away from the actual leak, so look around for all potential culprits. I found very high grade clear silicon caulk a very effective help, sealing generously between the chimney and the flashing, especially where the flashing abutted the chimney. The contractor had wanted to take down the bedroom ceiling, as that was where the leak was showing, so I was forced to try to find a less disruptive solution. Fortunately the roof had a flat section that allowed access to the chimney, as it would have been much more involved had ladders and scaffolds been required..
  3. It would be good to have the NYC annual snow fall totals for the 1600s and 1700s, as that covers the 'Little Ice Age' interval. My guess is that snow totals were above the recent 50" averages, but surely there is some historical record somewhere.
  4. Fission works and there are lots of ideas for improving the reactors. Afaik, fission produces about 20% of US electric power. Fusion would be great, but we still don't know how to make it work, except as a bomb. Wind and solar and hydro combined are about half the nuclear contribution in the US. There is little scope to add more hydro, wind and solar have not swept the market because of intermittent pauses in supply, which will need a massive grid rework to adjust for. If we are indeed facing an existential crisis because of climate change, it seems prudent to use a solution we know will work, even if it is less than ideal.
  5. Interesting insight into the power of ideology. People unwilling to accept the 'wrong' solution, even if the alternative is a climate disaster. I think I'm beginning to see why the Greeks saw politics as the very highest art, it is so damn difficult to get people to pull together.
  6. Climate change is real to any unbiased observer. The record temperatures in the Arctic should be adequate evidence. What is murky to me is the disregard of the nuclear option in the AGW debate. The stuff works, is greenhouse gas free and is reliable enough for 24/7 power. The French went 80% nuclear for their grid in a decade under DeGaulle, so a nation scale rollout is quite possible. Safety is much better than hydro, even factoring in Chernobyl and Fukushima, while radiation damage much less than from coal. Wind power has serious ecological issues, efficient killer of raptors and bats, but is also an environmental sewer, as the rare earths needed to build the generators are very messy to extract, with the process leaving vast swaths of ground perpetually contaminated. So what am I missing?
  7. Although the map is not clear, the NOHRSC estimate is at least a factor of 10 too high. Central Park had barely enough snow to coat the grass, the 0.2" number given initially looked spot on to me. It is not confidence inspiring when 'final revisions' are obviously wrong.
  8. Has anyone had any experience with the new IBM GRAF weather tracking/forecasting system? It seems to be inaccessible to ordinary mortals, but does it even perform at competitive levels with the Euro or the GFS?
  9. Manhattan UES did not see much, a few desultory flakes disappearing on the wet ground. No slush at all.
  10. Lot of moving parts to this. Difficult to be confident here in a snow forecast three days out. Fortunately I don't have to drive anywhere Wednesday morning, so can consider the outcome with equanimity.
  11. Seems to be mostly a raw weather event here in Manhattan, thirties, windy and raining. No substantial snow thus far.
  12. Very nice paper, thank you for posting this. I'm intrigued that the warm pool has been tracked since the start of the 1900s, a more than doubled warm area is massive and deserves to be highlighted more.
  13. Saw that phenomenon in progress this morning in NYC Central Park , where there are lots of Ginkos. In still air, their leaves were just showering down, so by the afternoon, the trees were almost bare, with the leaves carpeting the ground right under the trees. It was very pretty in the afternoon sun, the green and gold leaves encircling the tree trunks.
  14. quiet bar playing Xmas music= bad credit risk
  15. I can see the appeal, but can't see how that type of place could earn enough to stay in business.