etudiant

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  1. Is there a drought issue, given a warmer than usual climate with a sub par snowpack?
  2. That is a too steep paywall for me, to buy the book. However, if the solar minimum has the effects he claims, there should have been massive quakes in the US during the 1600s. Yet afaik, the biggest earthquake in at least the eastern US was the New Madrid quake in 1811. The big Alaska quakes did not pay much attention to his chronology either. There is a slightly more plausible theory involving the barycenter of mass of the solar system, which shifts around the body of the sun with the orbits of the planets. For earthquakes, I'd trust gravity more than temperature, but both still seem deeply implausible to me.
  3. Thank you, Isotherm, for bringing us all back to the facts! This is the kind of reality check that is often missing in these discussions.
  4. If a solar minimum can impact the earth enough to boost the earthquake and volcanic activity, we have a lot to learn. Put me down as deeply skeptical of any such connection.
  5. Thank you for finding these. Very helpful. Off now to my reading cave...
  6. Presume this is the IBM sponsored weather service. I'll certainly give it a try, there is surely a need for a detailed short term weather service.
  7. Thank you for these. Sadly while the psu paper is fully available and suggests a wide set of proxies were used to derive temperatures to drive the models, it then references Materials and Methods, for this aspect. That part however is not linked. The Nature paper is only an abstract, the actual paper is paywalled. Do you have any more useful references, please.
  8. Thanks for the response, but unfortunately the links in the message are not accessible.
  9. Not a stance that I agree with. Pension money is inherently long term oriented, they are seriously interested in this issue. I think that a frank discussion in front of a bunch of no BS money managers would be enlightening and I'm sorry the field was left to the skeptics.
  10. The reliability of both these charts is iffy imho. The CO2 data is presumably from the ice cores, which have limited time resolution, as they rely on trapped gases in snow that consolidates only gradually. That smoothes the data a lot. The temperature data is much more questionable. We have more or less global records for a bit over a century and we know that translating these into a single global temperature is a already a difficult exercise, given the individual records range from -50*C to +50*C at various points. For the prior centuries, we only have proxies, which rarely are purely temperature dependent. That makes anecdotal evidence valuable, so Norsemen raising livestock in Greenland or Roman growing wine in Britain suggest a rather warmer climate than this chart shows
  11. Very interesting insight, will need to get better informed about major volcanic activity pre 1600. I'm somewhat puzzled by the claim that the Earth orbital configuration at the time resulted in low summer insolation across the NH. Afaik, the earth's orbital configuration has not changed much in the past 500 years, as the precession cycle is about 26,000 years.
  12. The key article, by Wu et al, is paywalled, but the abstract indicates TSI based on the satellite record since 1978 and before then on a consensus series of sunspot numbers. The modeling may be valid, but as there is no actual data for what happens during a prolonged sunspot minimum, I'm not comfortable using extrapolations from the normal cycle lows. Clearly something changed during the grand minima and it seems optimistic to assert that TSI was largely unaffected. Separately, the volcanic impact on the LIA remains uncertain. My impression is there were no huge eruptions in the 1600s or the early 1700s, so the LIA cold is hard to blame on volcanoes.
  13. Have to wonder about that, it appears to use sunspots as a measure of total solar irradiance. Possibly that is only true within the range that we have experience with. We don't really know the sun that well, we can't even forecast the next cycle of sunspots, so I'm not confident that we can extrapolate TSI back to conditions of the solar minimum with any confidence.
  14. Honestly, at well over 10,000 feet, it does get colder, even in Hawaii. It does switch to extensive fog during the summer.
  15. These forecasts don't have a strong record, as we still don't really have a good model of the sunspot origin. So the possibility of a surprise remains very real. That said, we are beginning to see intermittent cycle 25 sunspots, so the new cycle is right on schedule by all appearances. That may be an indication that no sudden slump is in the cards.