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etudiant

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  1. etudiant

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    I suspect we all underestimate the potential for reform. If people want change, they will get it. With effectively unlimited power from nuclear, even extreme efforts such as carbon capture are feasible. What is required is a broad recognition that there really is a problem. That has not been achieved, imho partly because the early AGW researchers desperately oversold the immediacy of their findings. The subsequent pause after 1998 put them into the 'boy who cried wolf' category and that has impeded any further consensus action. Sadly I believe it will now take a climate catastrophe to spur any concerted action. A collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet might force a recognition of the problem, but failing that, business as usual remains the most likely outcome. The best hope for progress is from the renewable energy sector. If it can continue to deliver increasingly economical power, we might buy some additional decades to find a solution to the problem.
  2. etudiant

    Nature: Dramatic sea-ice melt caps tough Arctic summer

    That leaves it up to nature to balance the equation, which she is quite capable of doing, but I doubt we would like the process. It seems a counsel of despair, that we cannot manage ourselves, which also is quite wrong by the evidence of collapsing birth rates in Asia, Europe and the Americas. Only Africa still has rapid population growth, but that will adjust as the continent becomes more urbanized and civilized.
  3. etudiant

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    The discussion was about the difficulty of mobilizing the public to tackle climate change as an imminent danger. I was simply pointing out that the actions by the most powerful leaders in the debate undermine the narrative for the broader public.
  4. etudiant

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    An other problem imho is the dissonance between the rhetoric and the actions of the leading AGW politicians. The public sees that both Al Gore as well as Barack Obama bought large oceanfront estates shortly after leaving office. Presumably these well informed individuals would not buy such homes if they anticipated losing them shortly to rising seas. John Q Public takes comfort from this evidence that there is no imminent danger.
  5. etudiant

    September 2019 General Discussion

    Always thought that this is a wild card that does not get enough attention. A premature frost would have massive global consequences, because the US corn crop is a third of the world total.
  6. etudiant

    Nature: Dramatic sea-ice melt caps tough Arctic summer

    I don't think action is easily compelled, even less so when there is little leadership and few clear examples of the way forward. Germany is a case in point, vocally green and yet more dependent on coal and energy imports than before. If Japan could be mobilized, that would be a persuasive step, but there is no sign of such. Meanwhile, the evidence of a real ecosystems breakdown is all around us, evidenced by the recent report on declining bird numbers (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-science-birds-idUSKBN1W42NA) That is a disaster arising from habitat destruction, bad land use and indiscriminate use of pesticides, all problems that can be fixed, at a price. Who pays the price is the sticking point, even though long term we all share the hurt that is being inflicted.
  7. etudiant

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    Don't think this is a helpful cartoon. It is deeply anti scientific, an appeal to mass authority. In response to a book 'A hundred authors against relativity'. Einstein said: 'Why 100? If I were wrong, one would have been enough.' Einstein said 'Why 100? If I were wrong, one would have been enough.'
  8. etudiant

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Is there enough warm water there to allow Dorian another increase?
  9. etudiant

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    Not a regular here, but this really needs organization to provide help. I'm thinking of 10,000 or so households that have lost everything and that are remote from any helping entity. Is there a shuttle ferry or something similar (airport was under water afaik) to deliver basic supplies? All we can do here is to send money, but who is a trustworthy recipient? Do any of the regulars here know?
  10. etudiant

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Thank you, that makes sense. Very helpful.
  11. etudiant

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Can a hurricane fall apart just like that, even if over fairly warm water?
  12. etudiant

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Have to say that there was no such shift or wobble in the eye evident during the passage in the excellent satellite imagery offered by the College of DuPage here: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-15-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I believe it may be an artifact of this particular display, rather than a real phenomenon.
  13. etudiant

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Any further reports from Abaco? The storm is beginning to exit the island.
  14. etudiant

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Not sure what to make of this, but friends in Jacksonville Fl, whose condo is near the beach, have been told to evacuate.
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