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About dj3

  • Birthday 03/28/1988

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    Oakmont, PA

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  1. I was pleasantly surprised how well we maintained snow pack during the days leading up to Monday night. Overcast and cold temps makes a difference for sure. I'll still enjoy lighter events if we get them in March but if we're not tracking a big storm I wouldn't be upset about a quicker flip to spring.
  2. Pretty disappointing end to an awesome period of tracking over the last month or so. I was thinking we had a chance at something big coming out of a long -AO, -NAO pattern but didn't catch the breaks this time.
  3. I would love to see something similar to 2010 again since I was too young to really remember much about Mar 1993 and Jan 1994. Obviously I love snow and enjoy the little/moderate events as well but the true big ones are what make the hobby so fun.
  4. I'm with you on this. Going back to the end of last week this was modeled as a big QPF producer that some models had cutting west of us into Ohio. The overrunning from before the main coastal low actually gets going has consistently been modeled south of us and once the coastal does get going it looks like a weak piece of junk to me lol. The previous storm kept cutting more and more west with each run and this one has been going continuously weaker and south with each run.
  5. I recall state college NWS doing that back in the early 2000s. There were several storms that had "significant accumulations possible" listed for a particular day/night in their point and click forecasts. Funnily enough I can't recall if PIT had that as well because I usually followed state college more for their detailed forecast discussions.
  6. I'm surprised the NWS is bullish on this one. It looks like a relatively weak low and it doesn't really strengthen much as it turns up the coast despite taking a pretty good track for us.
  7. LOL unfortunately that appears to be on the table. Looking at most of the model total snow maps there is a theme 1 with max running to our west (from today's storm) and another running south east of us from Thursday's storm. I would bet against a complete whiff on Thursday but we probably won't have much clarity until today's storm is out of the way.
  8. Thursday into Friday looks ALOT better on the GFS. Almost more of a miller A look.
  9. JWilson had a good post from yesterday several pages back showing the trend on the GFS to weaken confluence up north and pump the SE ridge. The -NAO forecast from last week (top image) basically evaporated if you look at the image from this morning. I don't think we have seen really much of the north shifts that we are used to on the models this year up until this event. Probably a testament to how strong the blocking has been for much of the winter. Even with this storm it isn't our classic WTOD fail scenario where the mid atlantic has a cad wedge and snowing while we get slop. Anyway, as I type this it is pouring snow outside and I will gladly take any snow that comes our way . Frustrating that we had the rug pulled out from under us so close in, but at least we still have another chance to track on Thursday.
  10. 18z euro looked more north with 2-4 inches across Allegheny county.
  11. Looks like the mix line stays south of pa border on that run
  12. It’s about to hit it us with the second wave also. This could be a run to save LOL. ETA: probably still going to be messy on the second one but trending in the right direction
  13. 0z gfs run is probably the peak for mon/Tuesday. Overrunning and a perfectly squeezed primary into a coastal transfer.
  14. Seasonal trend has been to de-amplify things so I think we are in a pretty good spot for Mon-Tues for mainly snow. Even the late week storm next week I would think we are still in the game, although high pressure looks like its departing so maybe more cutter risk with that one. Moisture doesn't look to be a problem for the next 10 days at least.