dj3

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About dj3

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    Oakmont, PA

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  1. The 12z GFS has a perfect miller A track around day 9-10 and we still manage to rain. I was reading a thread psuhoffman started in the mid atlantic forum discussing past borderline events and it was pretty depressing. I'm not sure if it is just a recent run of bad luck or if there is a longer term trend related to a changing climate but it frustrating seeing the lack of cold air ruin these tracks that should work out in the heart of winter.
  2. The whole evolution looks too much like a late blooming miller B to me. The primary even though weak just sorta meanders in Indiana before transferring too far north. Pretty crazy the cutoff to our east, I wonder if it actually plays out like shown.
  3. The above map is pretty hilarious. Could not draw it up worse.
  4. It really is too bad we don't have a better airmass leading into this weekend's system as we would probably looking at prolonged light to moderate event. Models seem to be picking up on another southern stream event for next weekend, although cold rain as depicted on 12z Gfs. It would be frustrating for 2 close misses like that with late January temps but it is what it is I guess.
  5. That would make sense since the airport is only a few miles away, although I didn't realize there was that much elevation west of the city. The river definitely seems to impact accumulations. Last year there were a couple of times when driving a mile or two up the hill into Plum/Penn Hills you could tell a difference in the amount of snow on the ground.
  6. Anyone live in the area near Robinson? There must be some decent elevation out this way. I started working here a few years ago and I can't get over the difference in snow here compared to home (Oakmont).
  7. It’s the Saturday storm bombing out near cape cod that is making Sunday flatter on the 0z models. Pretty discouraging trends so far but I guess one of the risks with a fast flow and too many shortwaves
  8. Pretty intense squall in Robinson in the last 15 minutes. Probably a quick inch or close to it in that time. This has be hungry for a big storm
  9. I agree, on a large scale it’s incredible how well this was modeled really from 7-10 days out. Focusing on our small region it’s incredible how a subtle shift completely changed our outcome.
  10. The euro may be king for other locations but it absolutely sh*t the bed for us on this one. The gfs gets a bad wrap but didn’t flinch. Another thing I find curious is why Mets care about being reactionary. On Twitter they are getting blasted from basically everyone. Even their own semi-colleagues like hosts on the fan are just killing them. What is the big deal about changing your forecast. Why do you have to put out a consistent forecast that doesn’t change. The atmosphere isn’t static so why would a forecast have to be. One thing that definitely frustrates me as this will be referenced the next time we are in the crosshairs for a storm. Sorry for the rant, move to banter if need be.
  11. This was an especially tough one for me after how much time we spent in good snows on the models. I remember last Friday was the first hint at a huge storm and we were on the northern edge with a foot plus on the euro. I think more than anything this makes me appreciate how rare feb 2010 was. Literally it seems like the only time we can get crushed is if it is modeled well south and we get a slow shift north. I’m still hopeful for the rest of the winter so I won’t let this spoil our next threat. Part of the fun for me is watching the models give us snow. I know a lot of our posters are frustrated but our next big one will eventually happen.
  12. It was actually a lot better at 0z that gave me some hope. But yes let’s hope it’s over done