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tdp146

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About tdp146

  • Birthday 11/05/1984

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFRG
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Seaford, NY

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  1. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    So what is it about fog in particular that eats snow so fast?
  2. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Wow. I am actually shocked cruise lines don’t have meteorologists. I’ve been on the breakaway before and actually saw it come up the Hudson Friday afternoon from my office. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-passengers-recall-trip-atlantic-ocean-winter-storm-2018/ the explanation of ‘stronger than expected’ weather conditions is either a lie or negligence. This was extremely well forecasted as far as explosive development over the ocean. We aren’t talking about a 50 mile wobble east or west here that would have made for smooth sailing.
  3. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    What mountain? That’s like -60 windchill. I’ve done -40s before. You practically need a spacesuit on to not get frostbite.
  4. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Mike Trout aka weatherfeen ??
  5. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Oh that is awesome. Bookmarked. Thanks
  6. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Anyone have a good satellite view? looking for that new hi res GOES.
  7. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    WOW
  8. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    I won't post the whole thing, but Upton's AFD is a classic read top to bottom. They are reporting thundersnow at the office, 950mb low through the benchmark, eye-like feature showing up on radar and then frigid cold to follow. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
  9. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    12z surface analysis was 960mb off Virginia. Wow.
  10. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    ...or is it King Tropic Thunder?
  11. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    18z surface analysis from WPC. Comparing it to other model positions at 18Z, looks like they have the Low on the western side of guidance.
  12. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Pretty nice summary from Upton of where things currently stand this morning. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ** Accumulating snow expected Wed Night into Thursday ** ** Potentially dangerous cold for Friday into Saturday ** Models continue in good agreement with the polar jet digging down into the SE US Wednesday, following a strong shortwave/jet streak diving south from the Canadian Plains this morning, and interacting with a separate vigorous PAC shortwave diving through the southern plains today. Although there is good agreement in the mass fields, subtle differences in the timing/location of phasing of the above shortwave energies as they round the base of the digging trough, as well as the interaction of the polar trough with the second shortwave (determining trough tilt), will be key in track/timing of an explosively developing northward moving southern low on Thursday. Consensus operational/ensemble track takes a 970-975 mb low, located about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras Thursday morning, down to a 955-960 mb low about 100 miles se of the 40/70 benchmark by Thursday afternoon, and then about 150 mile e/ne of Cape Cod by Thu evening as a 950-955 mb low. Very impressive deepening! But looking at GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members there is about a 100 miles radius of track/timing differences, predicated on the subtle mid-level differences mentioned earlier. So although there is high confidence in the explosive strengthening of the low, there is still quite a bit of wiggle room with how close/far from the coast that the low tracks. Trend over the last 24 hours has been slightly closer to the coast. Taking into account the above uncertainty and an operational and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble consensus, the probability for at least a light accumulating snowfall event for the area is high for Wed Night into Thu Night. Have increased pops to categorical for east of the Hudson River and likely to the west, based on GEFS/ECWMF ensembles probs for 1/10th inch QPF over the region late Wed Night into early Thu Night. Potential for 6 inches of snow has trended higher over the last 24 hrs for LI/SE CT as well, looking at the 24 hr prob of 1/2 inch qpf. For E LI/SE CT, 00z ECMWF ensembles indicating 40-50 % chance, while 00Z GEFS 20-30 percent over eastern LI. Meanwhile, the SREF is very aggressive with QPF, averaging anywhere from 50 to 80 prob of over 1/2 inch qpf. Of note, the 06z NAM has shifted close to the 40/70 benchmark with 3/4 to 1 1/4 inches qpf for much of the region, which is within the spread seen with the SREF/ECMWF ensembles. Meanhwile the 06z GFS is at the low end if not lower than all the 06z ensemble members. So at this point, a good compromise for likely qpf is staying close to the ECMWF ensemble mean (reflected well in WPC qpf), which is in between the wetter and typically over-dispersed SREF and the drier and typically under-dispersed GEFS. This results in 1/4 to 1/2 inch qpf across LI/SE CT, 1/10th to 1/4 inch across NYC/NJ metro and SW CT, and up to 1/10th to the NW. Based on blend of snow ratio algorithms and WPC, this points towards a likelihood of 4 to 6 inch snowfall for E LI/SE CT, 2 to 4 inches westward to the Hudson River, and less than 2 inches to the NW. This is a fluid situation though based on model spread, with potential for these numbers to go down, but it seems moreso upwards based on model trends and mode of SREF/GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members compared to operational runs. This potential is reflected in latest WFO/WPC snow probs, with low-moderate prob of greater than 6 inches of snow across E LI/SE CT, and a 1 in 10 chance of seeing more than 10-12 inches of snow across the entire area. The other potential hazard with this storm will be strong winds, with a blend between GFS/NAM profiles pointing to potential for 30 to 40 mph winds along the coast Thu aft/eve. There is potential for 45-50 mph gusts for eastern coastal areas, if closer NAM track and stronger NAM wind field verifies. This would also lead to blowing and drifting snow and reduced vsby issues. Finally, after the storm, the hazard once again becomes the arctic cold. In fact, this could be the coldest air thus far, with signal for 850 temps of -25 to -30c into the region for Friday into the weekend. This would likely have temps struggling to get out of the single digits to lower teens Fri/Sat, with widespread wind chills of -10 to -20 degrees early Fri morning, and potentially dangerously cold wind chills of -15 to -25 degrees Sat morning. Of note, 40-50 mph NW gusts are possible on Friday as well.
  13. December 30th 2017 Clipper

    It comes and goes. Back to pixie dust now.
  14. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    For part of the afternoon rates became so light that we were actually losing snow since it was above freezing. Like you said, the ratios got better later at night and there was a clear difference in the consistency. I could see the difference in the layers when I was cleaning my car off. It was almost like it was two different snow events.
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