Moonhowl

Well looking at the long term forecast ; seems as though the next ice age (or return of the current one) may be put off to 25,000 to 50,000 years due to earth being in an extended period of lower eccentricity orbit which occurs every 400,000 years. However, in about 10,000 years the northern hemisphere winter will occur when the earth is most distant from the sun combined with a lower obliquity period for the earth's rotational axis; so we got that going for us. Lookout for big time snow in the Greenville-Spartanburg area.

Just out in the yard picking up storm debris; feels frigg'n great out there. I had forgotten how invigorating fall weather can feel; about time!

A little off topic and I know the number should be three; but that post got the Gilligan's Island theme song going in my head.

If I understood the discussion correctly; GSP wanted to put out high wind warnings but apparently were not allowed to because of the tropical headline. So they used the tropical storm warning as a surrogate for the high wind warning.

Strongest gust of the day just rolled through; estimating 45 to 50 mph.

Winds have picked in KAVL since the rain has effectively stopped.

Rain pretty much over here; wind gusts seem to be getting stronger IMBY; guessing between 30 and 40 mph.

Some additional interesting discussion on the winds from GSP: Of specific concern is the HRRR, while perhaps overdone, which gives upwards of 50kt gusts spreading across the Piedmont from the western Upstate this morning toward the I-77 corridor early this afternoon. Messaging this is difficult because TS probs from NHC actually *decreased* with the 11p advisory, but they take into account really only the immediate sustained wind radii associated with the wind ball itself and not necessarily any extratropical elements *OR* the gusts. Additionally, the gradient winds over the mountains (Balsams, Blacks, and points north - not Smokies) will be just as strong as winds in the Piedmont, with possibly higher gusts from that LLJ. With this, without having a better option (we are prevented from issuing a Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning if there are Tropical headlines in effect), have opted to expand the TR.W across a good chunk of the area. We know this is a very short-fused lead time and is likely confusing and maybe not even the best option, but given the saturated soils and potential impacts (there will certainly be trees down), feel this is the prudent action.

This is from the GSP forecast discussion this morning: KAVL is already gusting to 30kt, earlier than anticipated (which would have impacts up the French Broad and into the Upstate with the gap winds). Unfortunately, the HRRR may be onto something, and will watch closely through the morning and update winds as necessary.

Yes, a little to surprised to wake up and see the storm this far west; going to be a bad day on the escarpment.

Could get interesting in downtown Raleigh on Thursday with the buildings catching wind and funneling it down to street level. Could blow over some of the scooter people.

I recall those pressure gradient winds being significant with Hurricane Floyd; it closed down the Mtn State Fair for a day due to tents blowing down; a totally clear day too.

Unbelievable that the escarpment is looking to get flooded again; IIRC a little over a week ago the last flooding occurred. I guess the only bright spot is fall sets in after this which should bring some welcome NW winds and allow the escarpment to finally start drying out but between now and then...

Opal made for a long night in Asheville. I have family in Raleigh so hoping it doesn't get too bad there but hate to see what it is going to do to the Panhandle.

Between 0.5 and 1" IMBY; dead calm at the moment, thankfully. Would like to keep power and the trees upright.