Moonhowl

IIRC, fall color in 1993 was outstanding; that has been a few minutes. I have not seen one as good since.

Was on the Parkway up to Mt. Mitchell yesterday; there was some splashes of color here and there; colors seemed to suggest that it will not be a brown out this year, we will see...

Nothing like kicking off the fall and winter thread with a heatwave but yes, thinking about snow is a pleasant diversion from the heat. Hoping for our third consecutive year with a December snow storm and enough cold air this winter for the ski resorts to stay in business.

Can't believe KAVL hit 91 F on 9-9-19. IIRC Jason Boyer said that beat the maximum high temp for the months of June and August this summer.

Well, pressure at Frying Pan right now is 839 mb. Frying Pan Knob that is.

NHC discussion of the intensity: Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone.

Good luck, sending big miss vibes your way. At least we can be confident it isn't going to be hanging around very long.

No doubt it is stressing me out; I have family in Wilmington, NC and Raleigh, NC although not as worried about Raleigh.

Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side...

Well, to keep it real, the last place in the world to come for an objective view of the true probability of landfall is a weather message board; I suppose it serves the purpose of compiling in one place all the worst case scenarios which certainly aren't beyond the realm of possibility.

From the 5 PM NHC discussion: The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time.

Wow, grim to say the least; hopefully, this means eyewall replacement very soon.

It would be nice if it stayed to the right side of the cone and that re-curve showing up on the GFS sends it back out to sea before landfall; as you said what an enormous difference +- 75 miles could make...

Looking forward to the weather than next few days, sunshine with a hint of fall. The radar this morning has the NWFS look at the TN border counties

So much for breaking up the silence, the only thing I project is more activity when snow is showing up on the short range models. Until then, enjoy the rest of the Summer, Fall...maybe anther late Fall snow this year, we will see.