Moonhowl

Well, your chances of snow in Durham are about the same as Florida. The good news it is an easy drive to Roxboro

Sugar Mtn was looking kind of pathetic yesterday afternoon on the webcams and had one slope open. Back open to the top now; I'll be hitting (hopefully not too literally) the slopes later this week for the second time this season.

They were shutting gates on the Parkway around Asheville this afternoon. Almost ran straight into one on my bicycle.

Have a dusting of snow here in town; minor coating on the deck but roads appear fine.

Update; Sugar Mountain is open today; wax'm up

IIRC, fall color in 1993 was outstanding; that has been a few minutes. I have not seen one as good since.

Was on the Parkway up to Mt. Mitchell yesterday; there was some splashes of color here and there; colors seemed to suggest that it will not be a brown out this year, we will see...

Nothing like kicking off the fall and winter thread with a heatwave but yes, thinking about snow is a pleasant diversion from the heat. Hoping for our third consecutive year with a December snow storm and enough cold air this winter for the ski resorts to stay in business.

Can't believe KAVL hit 91 F on 9-9-19. IIRC Jason Boyer said that beat the maximum high temp for the months of June and August this summer.

Well, pressure at Frying Pan right now is 839 mb. Frying Pan Knob that is.

NHC discussion of the intensity: Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone.

Good luck, sending big miss vibes your way. At least we can be confident it isn't going to be hanging around very long.

No doubt it is stressing me out; I have family in Wilmington, NC and Raleigh, NC although not as worried about Raleigh.

Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side...

Well, to keep it real, the last place in the world to come for an objective view of the true probability of landfall is a weather message board; I suppose it serves the purpose of compiling in one place all the worst case scenarios which certainly aren't beyond the realm of possibility.