dan11295

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  1. I agree that schools, especially at the primary and secondary level have not been major sources of spread. IIRC France kept the schools open back last November and cases still fell. Given the the impacts to child development especially at the younger age groups, plus the parenting hassles, I agree that they should be in person if at all possible.
  2. It is pretty clear at this point they are not going to attempt pullback of their opening. They are basically going to rely on the combination of increased vaccine uptake plus spring weather as their mitigation. Crossing fingers that this peaks soon there.
  3. Almost half of those cases are from one state (Maharastra, where Mumbai is, w/110M pop. which spiked first) but now numbers are spiking all over the country. Many other countries are seeing major spikes as well. Not sure what the primary driver is for it (variants/less mitigation/seasonality, etc.).
  4. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3867475/ It is important to remember pandemics often differ from each other in duration, severity and most effected populations. The 1890 pandemic (generally assumed to be influenza but coronavirus OC43 has recently been suggested as a cause) occurred in waves over 3 separate years.
  5. Am curious what the cases numbers for those age groups are vs the fall. i.e. Is it just simply because of a higher number of raw cases in that age group, or are a higher percentage of those age-specific cases actually in the hospital?
  6. Was looking at OH Valley metrics outside of Michigan. IL, IN, OH, PA all are up 20-30% in hospitalizations in last 2-3 weeks to go along with increases in cases and positivity. Similar to here in MA. hopefully no other states start spiking more significantly like Michigan has.
  7. Regarding the lack of flu cases in many countries (including countries with very few Covid cases like Australia), it is probably due to a combination of things. These include distancing/public health measures, relative lack of international travel, and potentially the fact that often only one type of respiratory virus might be dominant in the population at a time. (i.e. seasonal flu is generally dominated by one strain, and trying to predict this is important for flu vaccinate effectiveness). It will be interesting to see what happens with influenza once Covid becomes endemic. Why we have flu seasons is still not entirely understood. But might be due to a combination of biological, climatic and behavior factors. Pandemic Covid has behaved differently than flu, see the southern U.S. summer surge last year.
  8. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-variants-of-the-novel-coronavirus-in-canada-1.5296141 There seems to be a higher percentage of P1 variant cases in BC than in the other provinces. Canada also has a higher percentage of P1 relative to B.1.1.7 compared to the US. Still haven't seen any hard data that the P1 variant is actually causing higher hospitalization rates relative to number of cases, just anecdotal reports.
  9. CDC Vaccination numbers for Michigan for those 16+: 16.4% are 2-weeks after 2nd dose, 22.9% are 2-weeks after 1st dose.
  10. I don't know if there is an official declaration. If the general sense, I would imagine this would be when most areas can return to life with minimal restrictions and without ongoing significant amounts of excess mortality. The pandemic is certainly not yet over, cases and deaths overall have risen worldwide in the past 2-3 weeks (Brazil is responsible for a lot of that, but numbers are up in other places too)
  11. I am sure a major part of the drop in average age of hospitalized patients is a significant portion of the older demographic is now vaccinated. That stat isn't indicative of anything other than that unless a higher % of cases in that age range are being admitted. I have yet to read anything specific to that effect in regards to Michigan
  12. Have been reading discussion re: ability to further mutate. Clearly there is some preferential selection for the existing spike mutations, as they have evolved independents of each other. But there is likely a limit as to how much it can mutate without the virus weakening itself.
  13. You are never going to get down to 0 cases and deaths, unrealistic when the virus will almost certainly become endemic, even with vaccines as they do not block all infections (and some will decline to take the vaccine). Ultimately the goal is to get the mortality/health/health care system impacts down to an acceptable seasonal level, similar to influenza. I would think that happens by June-July at the latest.
  14. As mentioned in the tweet above, MI is seeing the biggest spike. PA & NJ also really up. NY has been consistently high. Starting to see IL, MD and MA (where I am) make a move upward as well. Right now the 21-day time lagged CFR in Michigan is ~1.5%. Not far below where it was in December ~1.65% I am hoping this number starts dropping with the latest surge there. Regarding the breakthrough infections. They are going to happen, we know the vaccine isn't 100% effective. The #1 reason to vaccinate is to reduce risk to hospitalization/death to a low enough level so its not a cause of significant excess mortality. The vaccines are VERY good at that even against variants so far.
  15. Most of the damage shown was to larger, seemingly well constructed homes. When you consider that fact it looks like solid EF3.