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dan11295

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  1. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    From the images you can see a few things 1. Residential damage looks a bit worse as you head east from Panama City toward Callaway, as you see more houses there with complete loss of roof/major structural failure. though its hard to make a final judgement without knowing construction quality or if small scale dynamics with the wind were at play at specific locations. 2. Commercial/industrial infrastructure just got shredded. Look at Bus-98 from PC to Parker. You can tell just from the aerial that a high percentage of those buildings are total losses.
  2. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    From looking at aerials/pictures from Panama City and towns just to the east plus tweets from experienced chasers like Josh, looks like there was a lot of structural damage to commercial/industrial buildings from Panama City east to Springfield/Callaway/Parker. Residential buildings seemed to vary based on quality of construction/strength of winds at given location etc.
  3. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Actually more people without power right now in North Carolina than in Florida. Lot of 50-60 mph gusts combing with saturated soils taking trees down.
  4. dan11295

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    Couple other things into play here. One is there is little historical precedent for a storm that close to that strong landfalling in that general area, plus the general history for northern gulf storms to weaken before landfall. I don't think even 2 days ago anyone seriously thought Michael was going to make landfall while instensifying at that strength. I mean only 2 landfalling storms in the US with lower pressure were Labor day and Camille and ony 3 with stronger winds were Labor day, Camille and Andrew.
  5. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 825 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /725 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ ...NEW ALL-TIME LOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORD SET AT PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TODAY... PANAMA CITY FLORIDA (PAM) OBSERVATION SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FELL TO 922.4 MB AT 120 PM EDT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 979.1 MB DURING HURRICANE KATE ON NOVEMBER 21 1985. That's a record I hope never gets broken. Haven't heard about the towns E/SE of Panama City, including Calloway, Parker, Springfield. Given what we has seen from the limited pictures in Panama City, I imagine these areas also have extensive wind damage.
  6. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Wonder how high the winds were in Panama City. They were in the typically weaker northern/western eyewall, however there was constant strong convection in that quad during landfall, and they were in the eyewall for a good 90+ minutes.
  7. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Pretty clear already that even though Panama City avoid the RFQ, There is still significant structural damage there. They were in the rather vigorous NW eyewall for over an hour.
  8. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As some others have been saying, given the decent movement speed of Michael combined with the fact it was strengthening upon landfall and how well he is holding together, there is going to be significant wind damage inland.
  9. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    TS wind gusts are now on shore in Apalachicola. Conditions are going to start going downhill rapidly. Radar presentation is very good, no "half a hurricane" look that you often see with N Gulf storms.
  10. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Eye now coming into short range radar range. Good spiral banding into the eyewall (though weak on SW side). The IR presentation combined with radar and recon still imply an intensifying storm. IIRC this is the time when other northern Gulf Storms (i.e. Ivan, Dennis, Opal) were weakening. Probably have 8-9 hours until landfall? RE: latest recon, guess the HWRF wasn't out to lunch with those <940 pressures after all.
  11. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    937.8 extrap 130 kt FL 108 kt surface in SE quad last pass.
  12. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    NHC went with 140 mph 943 mb at 5 am. Amazed Michael is this strong even with the not being able to keep a closed SW eyewall (which you can see on radar). Strong convection continues to fire in the east eyewall and IR presentation continues to look good.
  13. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Most intensity guidance has landfall as a cat 3 now, although some should 5-10 kt of weakening prior to landfall, which wouldn't surprise me given climatology/cooler shelf waters/more flow off of land prior to landfall.
  14. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    -75C cloud tops have now wrapped all the way around the eye. Eye is now centered under the deepest convection too.
  15. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Recon supports 90 kt/105 mph at 11 am. Seems like some dry air is still getting into the system on IR. Steady strengthening still occurring atm though, which is what the NHC has forecasted.
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