dan11295

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  1. Just a reminder that most states are reporting on data gathered yesterday (Memorial Day). I would imagine some states will have some big number dumps tomorrow due to the 3 day weekend. Overall numbers ARE still on the decline though.
  2. Hospital numbers in GA are still going down as of now though, but obviously each state is different.
  3. Numbers are really low today, I know they have been dropping, but I suspect Memorial Day is a factor.
  4. Seems like next 2-3 weeks are going to tell us a lot about how things pan out during the summer. Between many states starting to reopen and some people who have had enough of being isolated, person to person contact is going to start to increase. I am still hopeful that a lot of this contact will be outdoors and brief, and enough people are cautious enough to not impact the transmission rate in a meaningful way. Keeping the current trend gets us to <200 deaths/day by August
  5. Question becomes how many people can you get in an outdoor area before it becomes and issue with increased transmission risk. Obviously packing people where you are breathing in someone's face is bad, even with a mask. if everyone is 4-6 feet apart on average how likely will transmission occur? Brief contact outside with someone masked just breathing outdoors is probably not that much of a problem. Prolonged contact, especially with talking (more particles are released) I imagine can still be an issue.
  6. This is likely a function of the fast the virus spreads faster in densely populated urban areas, which tend to vote Democratic in the U.S. Also the heavily Democratic northeast corridor was exposed to the virus much earlier than the deep south or Midwest. Even now 20% of the reported deaths in the US are from NYC alone, despite only having 2.6% of the U.S. population.
  7. For the record, there were 53,300 deaths in NYS (State including the City) during that time period, not 20,000. That graph is 100% false. By the way, numbers being reported are going to be depressed until Tuesday due to Memorial Day weekend. May take until Wednesday to clear the backlog.
  8. That picture implies only ~4,500 additional deaths in New York State during that eight week time period, I am sorry but CDC mortality data in no way supports that picture. There were ~6,500 additional deaths in NYC Alone for the week of 4/11/20. My guess is the data references was the preliminary CDC data that was still incomplete for the time period in question. There were actually 6800 deaths in NYC alone officially due to heart disease alone during the time period (and this graph is supposed to be the entire state). I am hoping you simply posted this without actually looking at actual numbers to verify it first (which is easy to do by the way).
  9. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6/data Note there is significant time lag in this data, up to 4+ weeks, depending on the state. There are significant spikes in Heart Disease deaths in places in NY, NYC, NJ in particular and lesser extent in places like IL, MI and PA. As a comparison there is no detectable increase in numbers in places like TX, CA, WA or FL. I know there some arguments that excess stress/putting off medical care is causing some of the excess deaths. While on a whole these things CAN be a factor in mortality, can that realistically cause 60% increase in heart disease mortality and 200% increase in alzheimer's mortality in NJ?
  10. As has been said many times, look at hospital data, that is not affecting by availability of testing, criteria for test reporting and is not subject to time lags. I also agree that protecting the care facilities will significantly reduce deaths, I suspect that is why deaths rates have been dropping more rapidly here in Mass last week.
  11. Per capita, they are still doing alright. They are helped by lower population density at least. Numbers in places like MS and IA have been rising however and are worse than Washington state now (which had early cases but shut down early).
  12. To this point, these is nothing in the preliminary CDC data suggesting any unusual amount of under counting in Florida, will need a few weeks for more complete data though.
  13. NYC has to be a bit more careful with their population density.Even If 25-30% have antibodies at this point that is not enough if everyone has to start crowding subway cars.
  14. Looking at some EU numbers, Spain, France, Italy and Germany have been looking much better (the spike in the Spain numbers yesterday were uncounted deaths from Catalonia). Need to watch their re-opening closely. Iran did have a second wave of cases when they loosened things (Ignore the fatality curve, it is fairly obvious it is bogus).
  15. probably due to increased stress and tension as the length of the shutdown has gotten longer.