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About dan11295

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    Maynard, MA

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  1. dan11295

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Couple thing to remember, one is that thankfully there is much less population once you get west of OKC, certainly compared to say Alabama. Of course if only takes one storm in a bad spot to make for a very bad day. Second, As I mentioned in the other thead, very important for people to not seek shelter in a low lying area with the high flood risk. There were 13 flooding deaths in OKC metro during the El Reno event.
  2. dan11295

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Important to emphasize not sheltering in flood prone locations like drainage ditches. This was a problem in OKC metro during the El Reno event in particular, IIRC. EDIT: Just looked up the NWS OUN page on that event. There were 13 flooding fatalites (12 in OKC) during that event.
  3. That cell means business, couplet really strengthened last frame as it moved on land.
  4. Guess everyone is hung over from the Sox win. Tor warning on the Cape and no posts in over 20 minutes..lol.
  5. Still reporting, pressure dropped 1.3 mb in 10 minutes to 966 mb. Wind still NE
  6. Without Guam radar, hard to tell how much of the eyewall Saipan is likely to get, Looks like Tinian is likely to have the eye go party over it.
  7. Wonder much longer Saipan will continue to report obs. They are now Sustained NE 67 G 85 mph with pressure 978 mb
  8. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    From the images you can see a few things 1. Residential damage looks a bit worse as you head east from Panama City toward Callaway, as you see more houses there with complete loss of roof/major structural failure. though its hard to make a final judgement without knowing construction quality or if small scale dynamics with the wind were at play at specific locations. 2. Commercial/industrial infrastructure just got shredded. Look at Bus-98 from PC to Parker. You can tell just from the aerial that a high percentage of those buildings are total losses.
  9. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    From looking at aerials/pictures from Panama City and towns just to the east plus tweets from experienced chasers like Josh, looks like there was a lot of structural damage to commercial/industrial buildings from Panama City east to Springfield/Callaway/Parker. Residential buildings seemed to vary based on quality of construction/strength of winds at given location etc.
  10. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Actually more people without power right now in North Carolina than in Florida. Lot of 50-60 mph gusts combing with saturated soils taking trees down.
  11. dan11295

    Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

    Couple other things into play here. One is there is little historical precedent for a storm that close to that strong landfalling in that general area, plus the general history for northern gulf storms to weaken before landfall. I don't think even 2 days ago anyone seriously thought Michael was going to make landfall while instensifying at that strength. I mean only 2 landfalling storms in the US with lower pressure were Labor day and Camille and ony 3 with stronger winds were Labor day, Camille and Andrew.
  12. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 825 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 /725 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ ...NEW ALL-TIME LOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORD SET AT PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TODAY... PANAMA CITY FLORIDA (PAM) OBSERVATION SEA LEVEL PRESSURE FELL TO 922.4 MB AT 120 PM EDT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 979.1 MB DURING HURRICANE KATE ON NOVEMBER 21 1985. That's a record I hope never gets broken. Haven't heard about the towns E/SE of Panama City, including Calloway, Parker, Springfield. Given what we has seen from the limited pictures in Panama City, I imagine these areas also have extensive wind damage.
  13. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Wonder how high the winds were in Panama City. They were in the typically weaker northern/western eyewall, however there was constant strong convection in that quad during landfall, and they were in the eyewall for a good 90+ minutes.
  14. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Pretty clear already that even though Panama City avoid the RFQ, There is still significant structural damage there. They were in the rather vigorous NW eyewall for over an hour.
  15. dan11295

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As some others have been saying, given the decent movement speed of Michael combined with the fact it was strengthening upon landfall and how well he is holding together, there is going to be significant wind damage inland.