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dan11295

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Everything posted by dan11295

  1. So last 6 days at KBOS 98 95 97 98 98 98+ pretty impressive
  2. FYI the 8.62" they have had so far today would rank as the #5 Wettest JULY on record.
  3. the Logan number looks pretty good. seeing 15-16" reports in SE Mass. The airport is almost in the heaviest banding right now.
  4. 100k outages in MA now. A lot in southern in southern Bristol-PYM counties.
  5. 28k out now in PYM County and Cape Cod. Given that we havent gotten to peak winds yet will def have issues in those areas for sure.
  6. Winds have really picked up here in the past hour. Fair amount of blowing/drifting even with only a couple inches. Difficult to measure as others are said.
  7. power outages starting to creep up 7k now. Going to be an issue in areas with wetter snow as mentioned before.
  8. 1.2" here at 7 am. Echos here were really light until the past hour.
  9. Getting into some decent rates here as that NW RI band works northeastward. Probably only couple inches on the ground here (will measure shortly).
  10. Looked at last hourly obs SE MA/cape/RI winds are 30-35 sustained with 45 mph gusts already. Snow just isn't heavy enough for blizz criteria yet. Nice looking band from ILM-Hopkinton MA. Near coastal areas Scituate-Pembroke area look to be getting some decent snows with that fetch. Potential jack area which has model support.
  11. IMHO I am surprised BOX upped the amounts with the models all starting to agree on the dual low setup which could threw a wrench in this a bit, especially in NW zones (SE MA still looks good for a pounding). I fully expect the Euro to come down a notch as well.
  12. 12z NAM is not a trend you want to see if you want a high end event. Still a big storm, but lowers the ceiling. This is why the NWS didn't go too high with the numbers this morning.
  13. BOX forecast is discounting the NAM for now btw given that its so slow and west. "Explosive cyclogenesis occurs off the Mid Atlc coast tonight, with an impressive ~40 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, yielding a bomb cyclone of around a 965 mb low over the eastern MA waters Sat evening! 00z guidance trended west and is in somewhat better agreement than previous runs, however differences still exist. The 00z NAM (especially the 12km NAM) the deepest, slowest and farthest west solution of the 00z guidance. Therefore followed a non NAM model blend solution for this portion of the forecast."
  14. Current BOX snowfall forecast looks like a 10:1 of the 6z GFS. Certainly on the conservative size and we know the GFS has been trash with this storm so far. From the past i know BOX really does not like to forecast numbers >24" prior to start of storm start and certainly not 24 hours out.
  15. GFS coming west is a very good sign. Still have to work at timing of capture and hopefully EURO EPS members resolve the divergence shortly.
  16. The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,
  17. The dual lows plus EPS members are telling me to keep expectations in a little bit of check. Still minor timing issues which could have sig impacts to realized amounts.
  18. People gotta stop smoking the Kuchie. Those type of ratios aren't usually seen outside of deform bands. Plus winds near the coast especially will knock down ratios. The most important thing, models like GFS notwithstanding (which is trending W) in the upper levels are trending in the right direction. This was evident earlier when the actual upper air observations were showing generally more favorable setup then some of the models.
  19. Appears the dual lows may actually be a thing. RGEM/NAM/ICON all show it now. Will have to see how that impacts storm evolution going forward.
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