dan11295

I think I am selling the 6" in Boston though

Looks like a solid advisory level event for SE sections

Not ready to bite on seeing warning snows here north of the pike yet. Along the pike seems very possible esp with the late bump back north.

Crazy how far off that is from NAM/GFS with 24 hours until start time

Yea you def think that corridor does better than what the clown maps show.

Time to see what the 12z Goofus does. I am guessing it stays pretty far south like 6z

Not sure how you end up with <4" along the Pike with that setup

You just don't want any more southern shifts if you are in the ORH-BOS corridor. Trends needs to stop at 12z otherwise you risk being north of the cutoff.

Portland was at 13.08' as of 10:48. High tide at noon. 1/10 peak was 13.84'. All the erosion that has previously occurred is really going to worsen the situation.

Just measured 3" of paste here at 5 am

I am selling 12"+ here tbh. Am worried even here ratios will be cut down tonight. Would really need the CCB to get going in time and everything not to be too far north to make that a reality in metrowest Boston.

Have to be very vary of poor ratios, etc. on the thump esp in ESNE.

From the MEMA outage map the south shore in particular has taken a bit of a beating. Cluster of 10+ towns all 50%+ out. 285k outages now. Not a bust.

260k outages in MA

what are the winds like in line in RI?

Not in U.S., general lack or info and other new big stories are dominating the news cycle.

Has to be some of the worst high rise damage I have seen from a tropical cyclone

Looking at area weather stations, at least 10 are reporting 5-6"+ in Brooklyn now.

Yea this is really more of a NYC metro event. 4-5" in part of Brookyln so far per radar and multiple personal weather stations.

Medicanes have always been in this strange spot when it comes whether or not to recognize them as "tropical cyclones"/how to classify them and who should be responsible to monitoring etc. This is due to a few reasons. 1. Temperatures in the Mediterranean have historically been too cold (i.e. <28C) to allow typical warm core TC development. Some times these storms have formed well outside of the typical June-November window for Northern Hemisphere TC development. These two factors are certainly a historical reason that haven't been classified and tracked as such. Although with better analysis tools its clear many of these storms are warm core cyclones. Daniel would have certainly been named if it had occurred in the Atlantic. 2. These storms have generally been weak, really never turn into warm core hurricanes (probably due to SST limitations). With a couple exceptions have not caused notable damage or loss of life. 3 They are very infrequent. As far as who would be responsible for tracking, the NHC doesn't make sense, as they will never effect US landmasses in any way. A European body makes much better sense.

Tbh we really don't need this. Rain from a tropical system would cause major problems right now. never mind the wind.

Ah ok, yea i know they had some downpours there already. So everything was already very saturated.

Does look like the BOX radar estimates at running a bit high. highest rain gauges in the Leominster area i see that look to be accurate are in the 7-7.5" range.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 722 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LEOMINSTER... The National Weather Service in Norton has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northeastern Worcester County in central Massachusetts... * Until 1030 PM EDT. * At 722 PM EDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain in Leominster, roadways being washed out and flood waters entering homes and business. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Leominster. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management reported. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Leominster, Fitchburg, Lunenburg, Lancaster, Sterling, Westminster, Shirley and Princeton.