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dan11295

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Everything posted by dan11295

  1. dan11295
    really flipping here now, nothing sticking yet.
  2. dan11295
    trying to mix here if its starting to flip in Acton should do here shortly.
  3. dan11295
    Still rain here in Maynard which is north of you, maybe due to precip rates?
  4. dan11295
    up to 42k out in MA up from 17k when I woke at 5 am.
  5. dan11295
    17k out currently statewide per MEMA all in western MA right now. I am guessing those numbers start jumping in N ORH county soon.
  6. dan11295
    Just woke up briefly for a model peek. Crazy we had to wait until after the event had already started to get some model consensus. I probably sucker hole some here though, too far SE/too low elevation for first part and too far W for meat of CCB later.
  7. dan11295
    I am assuming temps will stop falling shortly due to marine air pushing in.
  8. dan11295
    What model are they riding for that map? the RAP? Doesnt look like 12Z GFS or Euro for NW Boston burbs at all.
  9. dan11295
    Getting into Nowcast time. Whats with the rain in SE Mass Btw? Neither 12Z NAM or GFS had any precip there now. Did any model have that?
  10. dan11295
    My big concern now is all the best dynamics will be pushing off the coast to the east really cutting down on snow totals even where it does snow if the trends continue. the 12Z euro maybe well send the primary into Nova Scotia xD
  11. dan11295
    Was looking back to last couple of GFS/EURO runs all of them were not consolidating the lows and swinging the primary out to the east. That said the 6Z Euro was a pretty big jump in this time frame. That isn't too far from just rain to mostly dryslot here. IMHO the ship has sailed as far having one strong low close to the Cape.
  12. dan11295
    Seems like most models like around 12" for imby, probably lose 0.5-075" of initial QPF to rain. Obviously my area (128-495 NW Boston) is very sensitive to temps, flip time and dynamics.
  13. dan11295
    I am starting to buy into the Elongated initial low into CT now. The question is how much does it torch the 925 layer in places like EMA and how much QPF is wasted as rain. As mentioned above, E-W elongation torches my area much less than the SE-NW one. also have to see how much of best dynamics get shunted off to the east.
  14. dan11295
    That 6Z GFS evolution is really weird kind of like like 6z NAM with some additional dumbbell low action east of BOS as a bonus. No strong consolidated low from the south to near Cape Cod like 0Z EURO/UK/Canadian. Tossing verbatim. Probably still having trouble with stream interaction.
  15. dan11295
    current BOX watch is given the uncertainty for anyone S/E of ORH. Also start time is later for eastern sections in any case. I am not terribly confident yet in >6" here.
  16. dan11295
    UK and EURO seem rather similar. Both have dumbbell lows both have similar snowfall distribution over New England. Ofc not sure how much to read into that with everything bouncing around run to run.
  17. dan11295
    At this point i wouldn't expect big snows if you are SE of ORH-LWM. Between the marginal airmass and so many models bringing it over the Cape.
  18. dan11295
    Trend of later capture on 12z runs is clear, obviously we don't want this to get too far SE though.
  19. dan11295
    Toss the dual low idea unless there is other support for it.
  20. dan11295
    Freddy is still there lol. It was classified on February 4
  21. dan11295
    Very likely if there had been more actual "snow days" to this point they wouldn't have been so trigger happy with closing today.
  22. dan11295
    BUF is on the road, but it would have been impossible for them to play at home anyways
  23. dan11295
    Maine really took it on the chin with the power outages. 260k out of 850k no power.
  24. dan11295
    Sign the Fropa will underperform here with the winds?
  25. dan11295
    Looking at the nationwide power outage map about 1 million customers out from Texas on east. The frigid Temps make some of those outages pretty brutal, especially in mid TN-OH Valley.
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