dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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This looks like a hurricane on radar now.
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From the 8 PM NHC position graphic you can clearly see its east of forecast position. Have to see the impacts that has down the line. May imply Debby gets further out into the Atlantic than currently forecast. Gets far enough over the water might lesson the flooding threat a tad for coastal SC, but more potential to restrengthen. Would also have a bit less time to strength before the initial landfall.
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No question the potential for excessive rainfall over coastal GA/SC in particular is a major concern. Still not entirely clear Debby gets back over the Atlantic, which could impact level of flooding threat.
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6Z GFS still with the crazy loop back into GA.
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Nah, still has a while to go to get organized and intensify, even though its been looking good on satellite. Recon is still 1004-1005 mb. Centers are not completely aligned yet it appears.
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The good news is models often overdo stalling of TC's.
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wondering what are the chances this never gets into the Atlantic at all and stays inland GA/SC.
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LLC still hasn't formed it, not quite sold on it forming that far south.
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Wasn't terribly impressed here either. Couple flashes and a bang. Winds meh.
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Meanwhile high of 119 today in Las Vegas. Crazy they broke their previous all time record twice now in 3 days.
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Was that cell even warned?
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From power outage map you can see counties north of Houston fairly far inland with 50-75% outages.
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Another 84 mph gust Hobby, 79 MPH IAH, 8-9" rain has falling now in metro Houston. Once the core passes them looks like they should start to dry out though.
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Interesting that Harris County wasn't included in the inland Hurricane Warning. The gusts being reported now in the Houston metro would have warranted it in hindsight.
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KHOU 081313Z 14038G73KT 1SM -RA BR SCT015 OVC020 26/25 A2930 RMK AO2 PK WND 14073/1308 LTG DSNT SE PRESFR P0006 T02610256 $ 84 mph gust at Houston Hobby in last 20 minutes.
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This was a legit hurricane at landfall no question. multiple ASOS reported 80-85 mph gusts within the last hour.
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System is just too broad to ramp up quickly in the last 12 hours before landfall IMHO. High end Cat 1 is probably the ceiling at this point.
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Beryl is clearly getting her act together now on sat/radar. Thankfully for Texas there is probably only about 14-16 hours left over water for Beryl to intensify. Although this will keep wind impacts in check, keep in by Beryl will almost certainly be intensifying upon landfall, compared to when it was weakening at Mexico landfall.
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Based on radar motion barring a sudden W-SW jog southern Jamaica coast is going get into the N eyewall and be in for a rough time.
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looks like the N eyewall may clip the southern coast of the island? will be a close call.
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With the size of that eye after the ERC there were unfortunately be a direct strike on at least a couple of the islands. The biggest question is can Beryl gain enough latitude to avoid Grenada getting part of the eyewall.
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This cirrus moving through might limit max temps here in C/E Mass?
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The Congrats Dendrite Deck Destroyer 3/23-3/25 obs discussion
dan11295 replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
I think I am selling the 6" in Boston though -
Looks like a solid advisory level event for SE sections
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Not ready to bite on seeing warning snows here north of the pike yet. Along the pike seems very possible esp with the late bump back north.
