dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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One of the bigger issues with Nicole is many eastern beaches took a beating from Ian.
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Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public.
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2022 Atlantic hurricane season whining/banter
dan11295 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Obviously some of this "I" curse stuff is merely the result of the vagaries in timing of giving names. Hermine was literally named 6 hours earlier lol. But regardless of that fact, its a bit crazy that 3 of the last 6 "I" storms have made U.S. landfall at Cat 4 strength (Irma, Ida, Ian) Ironically also exists due to an "I" storm (Ike). -
From what I understand official numbers are not updated until next of kin are notified. So it probably will still go up some more, but not at much as the Lee County Sheriff was suggesting the morning after the storm.
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North Point, FL Some drone video of an area not focused on much due to the much worse surge damage in places like Ft. Myers Beach. A couple of videos I have seen out of this area again show that well built homes under current FL building codes did VERY well, and this area I believe was in the NW eye wall for a significant period of time. Some manufactured homes they showed later in the video did not fare as well, but I don't know when they were built. A lot of freshwater flooding here as well.
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Fort Myers Beach Aerial Footage Not a whole lot to say. Any buildings still standing close to the coast are likely built recently to current code both against wind and surge. The hotels probably fairly well although there are a few (like the one at the 8:30 mark) with major roof damage.
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They heaviest rainband is basically pivoting right over the city of Charleston. A bit unlucky for them there.
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Stories like this are while I am hopeful the death toll won't be too high, many of the people the Lee County Sheriff was thinking about found some way to safety.
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Also landfall looks to be closer to low tide which will mitigate surge some (which is the primary concern for the SE coast with this).
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5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 Location: 29.3°N 79.9°W Moving: NNE at 10 mph Min pressure: 986 mb Max sustained: 75 mph
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From the aerials I have seen of Fort Myers and Port Charlotte at least, roofs of well built homes are almost all intact. even the manufactured homes in Port Charlotte fared much better than in Charley (though there was some obviously structural damage to some). From a wind damage point of view so far, the more stringent building codes so far seem do be doing their job. Of course wind-based codes don't help too much when faced with storm surge.
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This thread is really getting derailed into banter/politics...
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Cape Coral is one area I haven't seen any post storm pics. Sanibel also, but that's been cut off so only going to get aerials of there for now.
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Per NHC Ian is more of a hybrid storm now, that combined with core gone will limit re-intensification. That said, there are going to be coastal flood issues with the large wind field and persistent fetch.
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I wonder how the communities closer to the coast that got the NW eye wall fared with the winds (e.g. Boca Grande to Englewood). Obviously a lot of focus on the storm surge, but I know a lot of that construction is newer so maybe it held up fairly well. I know newer construction did better in Michael, which was a bit stronger.
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They are getting hammered with rain as well. Daytona Beach is under a Flash Flood Emergency
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkMiG8BIeso Any pics/video links? I saw this drone video of Port Charlotte, there certainly is some wind damage, especially to mobile homes, but none completely destroyed. Well built homes held up well it looks. Lots of standing water. I am pretty sure they had worse winds in Charley. I am also sure there of some areas with worse wind damage than this.
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The good news is the sheriff is already walking back that statement. Sounds like he just made a (rather irresponsible and probably overestimate) guess. The original tweet thread referenced the "hundreds of body bags" comments after Charley which turned out to be a far from the actual number.
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Hopefully that is hyperbole. I know people have overestimated those types of numbers in the past. Although I would assume the Sheriff would have better decent first hand knowledge of that kind of info.
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Thats a pretty high gust for an official station.
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From Englewood-Fort Port-Port Charlotte have been getting hammered with the intense N eyewall for a while now.
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kind of a pick your poison, a bit better for Charlotte Harbor, but worse for Fort Myers.
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Current storm motion is really bad for Fort Myers, puts them in the SE eye wall, plus all the surge.
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Looks like its coming is a bit south of forecast. Fort Myers is looks like its going to get some of the eye wall.
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True the portion of the eyewall on shore is the "weaker" side
