dan11295

Seeing hurricane force gusts in mainland Nova Scotia now in Tracadie (just west of Cape Breton Island).

Latest recon pass was 929.8 extrap so pressure probably bottomed out a couple of hours ago.

926.5 mb Extrap. 1.5 mb lower than last pass. Previous VDM was 932 mb so probably ~930 mb now.

I don't disagree, of course they usually don't have a 932 mb pressure when going post-tropical either. Pressure wise this has to be one of the strongest storms ever recorded in this vicinity.

I don't think I have ever head of a storm declared post tropical with cat 3 winds.

With the dropping pressure, Assuming the center goes over land (0Z output on tropical tidbits have corrected west some) in NS Fiona will quite possibly set the record for lowest pressure recorded in Canada. I believe someone mentioned was 940 mb from a winter storm.

Hmm the 18Z track guidance on tropical tidbits is now east of NS? That would be a notable short term bust. As mentioned before Fiona has been east of Guidance for a while now.

There is really a fairly narrow area as far as location goes that would result in in a Major at US Landfall. Too far east there isn't enough time over the Caribbean water, longer time to cross Cuba, and limited time in the Florida Straits. Too far west into the central Gulf and dry air probably does a number on it.

Fiona's easterly component of motion is expected to stop in the next 2-3 hours per 12Z GFS as the phasing with the trough starts to pull it north.

12Z GFS almost gets Fiona to 60W around 21Z then takes a hard N-NNW hook

NHC track bumped a bit east. Slightly better for Places like Cape Breton Island as it keeps the strongest winds on E semicircle offshore, but Fiona is so large it might not matter too much in the overall scheme of things.

GFS and EURO both intensify the low as it turns north this evening and approaches the coast. Obviously there is some skepticism due to how low of a pressure they are showing. 6z GFS has 929 mb just before landfall.

Fairly expansive wind field already, Bermuda seeing 80-90 mph gusts past couple of hours

TS Newton is in the EPAC.

Back 15-20 years ago, Canada never issued Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings, just general rain/wind warnings. I assume because most storms affecting Canada were either close to or already post-tropical at the time of impact. After Hurricane Juan in 2003 (which was clearly tropical at landfall) they starting issuing Hurricane/TS warnings. When the NHC overhauled their warning system for transitioning systems in the U.S. following the Sandy debacle, Canada has starting following the NHC lead to also issue warnings for similar transitioning systems.

Obviously Fiona will not be purely tropical at this point is technically forecast to be post-tropical at landfall NHC. Regardless, this storm is going to have a very large wind field at landfall.

You mean Hermine? I assume the Central Atlantic fish storm gets named first as its already a TD

Sell the verbatim pressure, for sure. Regardless of that fact, models are showing a large, powerful storm undergoing ET transition as it approaches.

Latest track takes Fiona to Cape Breton Island as a 100 mph Cat 2. Have there been any other Cat 2 landfalls in Canada other than Juan in 2003?

Been looking that at model runs and they have been trending gradually to the left with Fiona. Better for Bermuda, But increases impacts to Canada,

Latest track is better for Bermuda, Atlantic Canada certainly has to watch this though. Potential for significant impacts to Newfoundland and even eastern Nova Scotia

Fiona being in a very good upper air environment has certainly helped in maintaining intensity. Also I think the core stayed just far enough away from the higher mountains in the central portion of Hispaniola

Looking at the NWS Data & Hazards Viewer. 6 Collection stations have 2-day totals of 20"+. Three are over 24". Heavy rains are continuing in these areas as well.

Biggest concern after Fiona re-emerges is going to be Bermuda (core still looks to stay east of the Turks & Caicos). Fortunately, Bermuda has strong building codes, but if they get the eastern eye wall of a strong Cat 3 there will still be significant damage. Btw, they have never been hit directly by a Cat 4 and due to heat content limitations it would probably take close to a perfect atmospheric setup for that to happen.