dan11295
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Everything posted by dan11295
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Fort Myers Beach Aerial Footage Not a whole lot to say. Any buildings still standing close to the coast are likely built recently to current code both against wind and surge. The hotels probably fairly well although there are a few (like the one at the 8:30 mark) with major roof damage.
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They heaviest rainband is basically pivoting right over the city of Charleston. A bit unlucky for them there.
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Stories like this are while I am hopeful the death toll won't be too high, many of the people the Lee County Sheriff was thinking about found some way to safety.
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Also landfall looks to be closer to low tide which will mitigate surge some (which is the primary concern for the SE coast with this).
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5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 Location: 29.3°N 79.9°W Moving: NNE at 10 mph Min pressure: 986 mb Max sustained: 75 mph
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From the aerials I have seen of Fort Myers and Port Charlotte at least, roofs of well built homes are almost all intact. even the manufactured homes in Port Charlotte fared much better than in Charley (though there was some obviously structural damage to some). From a wind damage point of view so far, the more stringent building codes so far seem do be doing their job. Of course wind-based codes don't help too much when faced with storm surge.
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This thread is really getting derailed into banter/politics...
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Cape Coral is one area I haven't seen any post storm pics. Sanibel also, but that's been cut off so only going to get aerials of there for now.
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Per NHC Ian is more of a hybrid storm now, that combined with core gone will limit re-intensification. That said, there are going to be coastal flood issues with the large wind field and persistent fetch.
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I wonder how the communities closer to the coast that got the NW eye wall fared with the winds (e.g. Boca Grande to Englewood). Obviously a lot of focus on the storm surge, but I know a lot of that construction is newer so maybe it held up fairly well. I know newer construction did better in Michael, which was a bit stronger.
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They are getting hammered with rain as well. Daytona Beach is under a Flash Flood Emergency
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkMiG8BIeso Any pics/video links? I saw this drone video of Port Charlotte, there certainly is some wind damage, especially to mobile homes, but none completely destroyed. Well built homes held up well it looks. Lots of standing water. I am pretty sure they had worse winds in Charley. I am also sure there of some areas with worse wind damage than this.
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The good news is the sheriff is already walking back that statement. Sounds like he just made a (rather irresponsible and probably overestimate) guess. The original tweet thread referenced the "hundreds of body bags" comments after Charley which turned out to be a far from the actual number.
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Hopefully that is hyperbole. I know people have overestimated those types of numbers in the past. Although I would assume the Sheriff would have better decent first hand knowledge of that kind of info.
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Thats a pretty high gust for an official station.
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From Englewood-Fort Port-Port Charlotte have been getting hammered with the intense N eyewall for a while now.
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kind of a pick your poison, a bit better for Charlotte Harbor, but worse for Fort Myers.
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Current storm motion is really bad for Fort Myers, puts them in the SE eye wall, plus all the surge.
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Looks like its coming is a bit south of forecast. Fort Myers is looks like its going to get some of the eye wall.
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True the portion of the eyewall on shore is the "weaker" side
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With the angle of attack and large eye, a large area is going to be hammered with that eyewall. Only moving 10 mph as well.
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Colder cloud tops trying to wrap around the eye again. Certainly not weakening at all. based on IR presentation
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Eastern "weaker" eyewall is almost to Sanibel Island. Have to watch for friction dragging the core closer to shore.
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We starting to get close to the time where minor jogs will depend who gets the SE eyewall. Looking at Sanibel and Cape Coral in particular. Regardless though, Ian has a large core and it going to effect a large area of populated real estate.
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18Z UKMET finally came north a bit and is now close to 18Z GFS with a landfall near Rontonda. Fort Myers/Charlotte Harbor look like they could be among the worst spots for surge. People have to realize the track may looks a bit like Charley, but Ian is a much bigger surge threat with the larger circulation.
