SnowGoose69

I’m breaking my neck using the site I have but it doesn’t look much different than the 12Z run

Someone in the MA forum swears the ICON is decent post 120 and then sucks inside of that

The pattern argued for this to be fairly squashed and flat as I had posted two days ago when I said the NAM track looked best. Just about everything has trended that way. It’s so weak now though that even southern areas probably won’t see much

The NAM has been respectable the last two years since the upgrade at 66-84. It’s still not great but it’s way better than it used to be at that range when it was always overamped on any major system

The NAM no longer has the amped issue at 72-84 the last two years. Some sort of upgrade occurred so it tends now to be near the globals in major storms at that range more than it used to. NAM even flatter with the Friday event now too. That has become weaker and weaker for the last 36 hours. I expected the more south track to verify but I wasn’t exactly anticipating how much guidance is beginning to wash it out

Was that not written this afternoon? That would be the 8-4pm shift. Mostly everyone rotates through everything at the NWS. Seniority doesn’t help much outside of taking vacation

I thought that was bizarre for them to make that declaration so early with how horrendous the medium range modeling has been the last few winters

Thursday is gonna be flat. Pretty much everything is headed that way. It’s increasingly likely everyone but south shore of LI will see snow

When you look at the GFS at 18Z and the Euro as the system is tracking across the Oh valley you can sense it is about to try to undercut and slide under the high. I kept thinking here it goes here it goes here it goes it’s going to try and redevelop the center further south but it doesn’t. This can still end up much better here. Long way to go

This weekends system won’t likely warm us for a long duration. The next one if it goes into the Lakes could be a 2-3 day deal for sure.

In other news the system after looks increasing likely to be a cutter. I’m not sold anymore the month averages below normal if we torch for a day this weekend and again mid week next week for 1-2 days. The weeklies continue to verify well dating back to late December. They didn’t really turn things 100% great til 1/25 or later and that’s probably where we will be at

Central Park should end the snowless streak Friday. Most guidance today was continuing to be flat giving a better chance the boundary layer doesn’t torch too quickly. Barring bad measuring tactics I would be surprised if it doesn’t get broken

The Euro is likely going to end up being too far north. I don’t necessarily think the UKMET is right either but the models aren’t seeing any impacts of CAD yet or the earlier start of the precipitation. You’ll start seeing as we get inside 96 that precipitation is moving in earlier and the CAD is stronger

It was clear in Op run as well as I slowly scrolled through frame by frame as it came out I initially thought the system was going to be 150 miles south of the 00Z run based on how things look at 84-9 0

The Euro and UKMET have rarely agreed this season on significant systems beyond Day 3 for whatever reason.