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About SnowGoose69

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    New York, NY
  1. It’s possible there is an initial shot 2/2-2/5 then it moderates again before cooling back off around the 10th-12th. The GEFS has sort of shown a rebound after the initial cool down and the MJO not yet being into phase 8 until around 2-10 may support that idea. It’s somewhat tough to trust the GEFS as they’ve had a tendency this winter to try and dump those trofs too far west
  2. I thought I would point out that NYC has yet to have a snow to rain event this winter. Every measurable snow event has been all snow or rain to snow as is the case with the most recent 0.4 event. I think that shows us how fairly inactive or weak the storm track has been overall.
  3. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    I actually don’t recall much Virga. I do know the DC Metro had tons of it though, maybe several hours worth and there was a video awhile back out there of one of the TV Mets continually stating the snow was going to reach the ground anytime now
  4. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    February 89 was the worst luck ever. I think there was also a SSW that month as well. It was a combination of suppression and I believe another period where the trof was centered too far west in the plains
  5. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    Bastardi opening fire right now on Twitter over the sites still being down.
  6. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    A -NAO, at least a central or west based one of decent magnitude in a strongly -EPO pattern is really not possible. DT had a great video back in 14-15 explaining why that is and showed the comparisons to 93-94
  7. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    The Op Euro has tended to be pretty cutter happy in the Day 7-10 range the last 5-7 years since the initial upgrade whenever we are in a pattern where cutters can happen. I’m guessing the whole Day 10 system and setup is probably too amped. Probably too far out too for the EPS to be much help this winter the way things are going
  8. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    LOL. Why are all the MOS sites down this morning but they weren’t Saturday and Sunday when the government was already shutdown? Seems like someone at NOAA decided to make more noise to prove a point
  9. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    As you get past the 20th of the proceeding month it can become somewhat useful. It’s been getting colder and colder for February. I wouldn't ever use it before the 20th of the incoming month
  10. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    The CFS is slowly losing the SER next month too. This again could result in support in suppression I think if the PV drops further south. The GFS and CFS have really wanted that SER in the longer range whenever the -EPO has built in but it’s generally never verified
  11. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    That sort of led to less cold though. The difference in how deep that cold press was before the final cutting system has dramatically reduced the last 2 model cycles and they’ve weakened the system
  12. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    It’s pretty rare for La Niña Marchs’ to be cold and snowy. It did happen in 2001 (although down your way I’m not sure it did) and a few other cases but most cases where La Niña March featured cold and snowy it was usually in transition to an El Niño. Many transitions from La Niña to El Niño have featured huge March or April snows such as 82 and 97
  13. January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

    The GFS and CFS have wanted that SE ridge there in the longer ranger every time the EPO has gone negative but it just hasn’t panned out. If it doesn’t again I think we again run some risk of cold and dry although climo argues somewhat against that as you approach March
  14. Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

    The AMO really isn’t yet into the cold phase. I’m not sure what the cause is. It’s maybe more connected to cold waters near Greenland and Iceland as a result of the melting ice
  15. It doesn’t look like it would reach 8 til the 6th-8th of the month. I don’t see it getting out of the cold phases at that point before the month is over