SnowGoose69

TWC has beem laying low the last few years but finally a moment today out of the blue. Maria Larosa just up and left with no warning. She never really said why outside of strongly hinting it was to spend time with kids but I found it odd when she said they were 13, 11, and 8. That seems to be awful late in their lives to make that move, anyone I know who has done that it’s uusally much earlier on. Hopefully it’s all good and they’re not starting to clean house again.

If I remember right the stratosphere was an absolute ice box in October and November which likely led to the NAO problems that winter. It was also insanely dry considering it was an El Niño and it continued straight through the next summer. October 94 - September 95 has to be one of the driest 12 month stretches for most of the northeast in the last 50 years

Maybe TWC needs to start sending these folks home that the worst is over? Alex Wilson looks exhausted. She had obvious bags under her eyes. Probably didn’t get any sleep at all last night

Damn. MYR might be getting hit hard. NWS forecast this afternoon has gusts to 83kts

As it moves further inland you also have more deciduous trees or evergreens than at the coast where there are lots of palms. Those will easily go down with 60-70mph winds and saturated ground. A cat 1 in NC does alot more damage in NC than it does in Florida because mostly palms there

NKT and NCA gusting to 76 and 75kts now. Surprised that ILM hasn’t had stronger gusts to this point

95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far

That flag at frying pan is almost destroyed now

KNKT peak wind of 63kts last hour

KNJM looks like first ASOS to break

Even if the winds don’t catch up you still would prefer to not have a hurricane in an increasing phase as it makes landfall because it’s been shown there is a greater tendency for winds to effectively mix down in those cases. We’ve seen weakening 125mph storms produce surprisingly minimal wind damage at landfall while a strengthening 95mph system produces gusts of 110-120mph

If the HWRF is right it’s best chance may be noon-midnight tomorrow. It correctly predicted today’s weakening somewhat

I still am somewhat concerned it could ramp back up. It’s intact enough that if that shear relaxing and dry air abates it could probably get back to a high end 3

I would be shocked if it weakened that much but it could very well be 80-85 mph

That was a generous 115mph. You could argue with what they found it’s 95-100 right now