SnowGoose69

At this rate the NAM will be around for 5 more years at least

I have heard it both ways. There has been arguments excessive storms re-curving in the Atlantic can lead to mild and cold winters via heat transfer. I'm not sure there is any significant connection either way.

It just seems to me it would have to gain a decent amount of latitude the next 48 hours to have any shot at finding that weakness

They should just name it for media purposes. It’s way easier for some of these rip and readers on air to say Jerry for the next two weeks than Imelda.

The next long track one out in the Atlantic/Caribbean likely will be. That system in all likelihood will have 4 possible endings. Hispaniola, Florida, some other state in the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan. As of now I see no chance that likely eventual system gets anywhere east of Florida.

Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola

The ridging is strong on some of the ensembles it highly possibly that the Gulf could be more at risk than the east coast. It’s gonna be mighty tough if many of these ensembles are right to get anything to track north of Hispaniola or PR

Yeah I’ve seen that writeup too. I’ve always said that 3/2/09 on a small scale was what was supposed to happen on 2/24/89 that didn’t. The two setups had big similarities at 500. They almost were as close to being identical type setups as February 83 and December 09 were. The NWS was also very slow to react too. The models (including the NGM) sort of started backing off the event for NYC and PHL as early as 12Z on the 23rd but it was a gradual back off to an extent. I think by 10pm on 2/23 when the 00Z runs came out most mets knew the forecast was in big trouble but they were reluctant to totally take things down. February 89 scarred many meteorologists to the extent I know of quite a few still working who aren’t exactly people with great memories but they recall well what happened with that event. I almost think I’ve come across more meteorologists who remember busting 89 than March 2001. I know someone posted here or another forum in recent years that a forecaster in the NYC or PHL office who worked the days leading up to the 89 storm was never the same after and was somewhat shy to take media calls afterwards and uneasy about dealing with winter storms.

Even the Euro I believe had some sort of hard north turn after 06Z tonight

I’m not too worried just yet. If it’s not turning by noon or early afternoon tomorrow though then it’s likely this at least gets within 30 miles of the coast of Florida

Yeah that’s correct. Tropicals don’t operate the same as say a regular mid lat cyclone that would pump a ridge ahead of its track the stronger it is

I think it briefly went due west but then resumed the 260 motion again soon after

I went back and looked at the 12Z GFS forecast positions at 06Z and 12Z. Neither one has much of any shot at this point to not be too far north. In order to reach the forecast position at 12Z tomorrow from today’s 12Z GFS it would have to move something like 320 degrees from where it is now

This will be the greatest coup by a model since the CRAS 2010 snowpocalypse if the UKMET nails this

I think it’s going to end up getting 30-40 miles from the coast. So probably a good 50% closer than most of the models currently have