SnowGoose69

Cold Novembers are more a classic mod-strong Nino head fake tendency before things usually begin to torch December onward. Ninas as you found are usually all over the place. I thnik some of the stronger La Ninas have shown tendencies for cold Octobers in the East.

Evidently the SST anomalies off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are the warmest above normal as of this point in the season since October 2000.

The longer this insane mild pattern continues the more likely some kind of very cold November and December emerges. We saw this occur a few times in La Niña years in the last 30 years with very mild September through early November periods and they flipped and went really cold early in winter. 1989 and 1995 are the most notable. I don't think 89 was necessarily that much above normal but there repeated mild periods in fall including just before the thanksgiving snow

Yeah this is what I tend to see more of too. People immediately went nuts claiming no storm ever intensified like Harvey did but where were these people the last 11 years of virtually no NATL activity or when Opal underwent RI.

No. The wind field on this is too small and there is no strong high to the north this time. The center would need to go almost directly over them. I wouldn't expect much at all other than a bunch of rain

Darwin effect should be in full bloom for this one where you are. Probably won't see much of any major tree or power outage issues at all unless this is worse than Irma since all the weaklings got taken out already

The volcanic eruption would more likely cause the +AO in the 18-19 winter, not this year. There is usually a lag of 6-12 months at the very least or so at least until the impacts leading to the arctic cooling cause the AO to soar. Pinatubo impacted the AO more so in the 92-93 winter it seemed as would be expected. The current SST configuration works if the water east of Greenland by Iceland stays warmer

Gloria was still likely stronger than people think though. The insane 125-130 mph forecast they had out was wrong but I still think it was probably 95-105 when it hit. Those winds were purely east of the center and east of it by 20-30 miles since Islip gusted to only 85. BDR gusted to 97. I was in Rocky Point at the time and easily thought we had winds over 100

Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point. It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area. I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst

Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong. Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out. I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now

I think they just don't see the value in it. Much like the 25000ft sensors for the ASOS never really came to pass. They didn't see any reason since these are mostly for aviation purposes and you won't have any operation in these conditions ever

I assume many of them go out due to power but I see many cases where the rest of it keeps working the entire event but the anemometer fails

92mph just broke the ASOS. They should use better equipment on these

15-20 mph if it completes or nears completion. The eye having become bigger today probsbly prevents a 30 mph plus drop from occurring.

I could see it clipping the northeast corner if it were to wobble NNW a bit longer which it seems to be doing now. But it's probably going to resume more WNW motion at some point tonight