SnowGoose69

The GFS pattern really looks 1980s like with the cold shots that keep ejecting south out of eastern Canada

We are pretty much due for a winter where everyone forecasts wall to wall torch and it ends up like 93-94. I don’t see much reason to assume that happens this year but it’s going to be hard to duplicate last winter. This is sort of the opposite of going cold and snowy in 94-95 or 01-02 after the preceding winters sort of had a ton of things break in a favorable way. It’ll be hard to get the ratter this winter we had last year again

If I remember right in December 88 the positive NAO killed us. There was probably 3-4 decent storms that came out of the Gulf but weren’t able to make the turn up the coast

Way stronger. Its up there with 98-99/10-11/88-89

I think it was a non factor. In 01-02 the MJO was a big factor being mostly 3-4-5 all winter.

I think that 2011 mostly got sunk by the AK vortex and then January into February got sunk by an SSW which forced what would have been a west or central based -NAO into an uber east based NAO that actually made the pattern even more hostile

The funny thing is thats the exact sort of pattern where somehow Richmond or Atlanta or Nashville will find a snow event but anything major won't happen in the NE. It sort of is 01-02/11-12ish, its not classic Nina SER at all, its just weak to moderate AK vortex, east has a trof at times (hard to tell with the smoothing) but no cold air source at all.

Its sort of a 01-02/11-12 hybrid pattern. Its not necessarily December 2015 or February 2018 with a roided SER. Its just a constant weak to moderate AK vortex and although the east is trofy at times there is no decent source of cold air.

Has anyone looked at 85-86 as a possible analog? The La Niña was much weaker but the QBO looks similar, November was very mild and there was an active Atlantic tropical period that month as well like this year

It was a semi neutral after a La Niña though. Historically those have been terrible and we had a couple of more after that too including 11-12

And NYC will probably get more snow than they got last winter anyway. It’s almost impossible to get that little snow again. By accident we will probably find a 6 inch event somewhere

February 89 and December 89 both exhibited a bit of what we saw in 17-18. Sometimes you get a decent pattern with cold air during La Ninas but they are too progressive so you end up with MA and SE snowstorms but the Northeast misses out. Most always assume La Ninas are bad for places like DC/RDU/CLT but reality is if you get the right pattern for a few weeks those areas can cash in well whereas a similar setup in a neutral or ENSO might have sent the impacting system to their north.

Chances are the pattern is going to flip for 4-5 weeks sooner or later. I can't see see us having wall to wall warm from 11/1-3/15...the reality is nobody wants to see a flip before early to mid December since its hard to get snow before then anyway

The 20Z HRRR got that 02-03Z MOB forecast very close. Had 90kts at 925mb with 76kts mixing to the surface

There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped. 1993 was one I know of. I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.