SnowGoose69

Considering how small the Euro incrementally moves though its changes with the surface low from 54-66 were significant. I think in the end it'll bust pretty badly relative to what it was showing last night or yesterday which was more or less a total whiff

When the NAM consistently shows the same idea beyond 48 it has a tendency to be onto something. I usually discount the NAM when it makes wild run to run shifts but since the 18Z run yesterday it has not wavered a whole lot.

Still a fairly sloppy setup, even on models which do show something. There may be a shadow zone somewhat as the bulk of the snow depicted by most guidance outside of ERN areas is not even from the coastal. Sometimes as you get closer that screw zone becomes more evident and bigger on models. If anyone in the metro pulls 2 or more inches from this one its a big W though

The ICON may have ticked ever so slightly NW or organized and the RGEM as well but they werent extremely notable moves

Even the ICON is more logical than the GFS

Ensembles have consistently been too strong with SE ridging past D10 the last few weeks...there has been a tendency to try to show a shutout pattern beyond D10 but when we get closer in we more end up in a poor pattern vs a total shutout pattern

We are basically in the stretch of another 1971-1975 or 1949-1956 the last few years...in general you are better off being out west. I think once we can get the AMO to flip negative we might be better off...not sure the Pac state is changing anytime soon...even El Nino winters right now might act La Nina like

Some years they have remarkable accuracy at 3-6 weeks...others they'll just keep trying to revert to the seasonal climo or expected ENSO pattern and be wrong

It does seem that operational runs really struggle when there is a -NAO though in that D5-10 range. Not that you can really trust Op runs that far out but they will tend to cut systems often and be too warm alot of the time at that range while the GEFS are showing a NAO OF -2

It was a classic East based start. We also likely got aided somewhat by the blocking from the prior winter as well as the lag in the STJ. Often winters with consistent blocking or -NAO you’ll see the ensuing November and December the next year also have blocking, even if the indices for that winter don’t necessarily favor a -NAO on paper. Nov/Dec 96 and 2010 are good examples. The STJ lag has shown up before too after stronger El Niños to start the next winter. Even 93-94 some say the multi year nino from 90-93 may be why we were active that winter on a lag

I think there is some degree of downslope but it’s not unusual to see them or Nashville be colder than us. Even in the 85 outbreak they got to like -9 or something insane in Atlanta while NYC was only -2

it seems hard to use any solid rules anymore. In the 80s and before the tendency was as you mention. The 90s into the 2000s it was more torchy in December with cold Januarys then torch Februarys. Recent La Niñas have tended more to resemble the 80s and before pattern of cold early then warm

It seems to me the ensembles have continually tried showing a torch beyond day 11-12 and constantly been having to correct cooler or to a less hostile pattern the last 2 weeks than they keep showing beyond that range

The EPS actually beat the GFS for the current period we are in and headed into...the GFS 12 or so days ago was trying to flip the pattern more to a classic Nina and failed.

Just a slight difference D14-16 on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS looks more like the GEFS though with a western trof