SnowGoose69

Yeah with a La Nina. It won't be as bad as this winter but I don't feel next winter is gonna be any sort of 95-95 or 02-03

Funny thing is if you look at the anomalies in Dec 2010 the Pac and Atlantic were not that different from Dec 2012 but the blocking in 2010 was more west based which likely made the difference

Wasn't Dec 2012 the December where the AO was raging negative but somehow the pattern sucked?

The main difference is the 870-950 layer. It’s ever so slightly colder in those areas than ATL is. If precip rates are heavy though I wouldn’t be surprised if ATL itself saw an hour or so of moderate snow

That event never had a chance with that energy crashing into the Pac NW. It could have been an MA event but that’s about it

It seems the last 1-2 years that when the Euro has an extremely weak MJO and the GFS wants to go insane the Euro is right....on the other end when both agree on a decent amplitude wave the GFS tends to be more correct while the Euro kills it too fast.

We are likely screwed next winter too with models showing a nasty La Niña. Perhaps though stronger Pac La Niña forcing might make things better than last winter and this in an odd sort of way

The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough. My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens

The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything.

Anything which has impacted our region has come NW. I definitely would agree some systems that ultimately were nothing or slid well OTS didn’t follow this trend but everything that dropped QPF between DCA-BOS has pretty much come NW late

You can just about guarantee every storm of this type will shift NW from day 4-5. it’s just a question how much

This shouldn’t really surprise anyone. Everything has had massive NW or N shifts all winter. The storm last weekend shifted 250 miles in the last 72 hours

I thought for sure the Euro was going to be a hit when I saw it through the first 48-60

If you have a western ridge and eastern trof positioned correctly you don’t really need the NAO to be negative.

They’ve done so many darn updates it’s hard to track. The January 2013 or 2014 update (I blocked the storm out of my mind) was right before the massive NYC bust and the model really struggled after that. Subsequent smaller upgrades have improved it and the upgrade in April 2019 appeared to solve that mid range overamp bias however the last 4 weeks that bias has returned again. In October thru December I thought for a time the upgraded improved it