SnowGoose69

Nice fight right now near jones beach with the sea breeze. In last few minutes we had wind go 180 for a few minutes then back to 310 now back to 230-250 or so

That cell headed towards JFK may have hail with it

The average of the ENSO prediction models in May still says weak El Niño but there’s a bunch of long range gurus saying based on the sub surface setup and other things that they think it’s going to end up being near neutral or weak Niña

Probably a better chance of some severe in the metro today. Probably will see more heating and breaks in the clouds. Also forward motion of the storms is likely to be faster across PA and NJ giving them less time to weaken

The El Niño is really starting to crap out (if it really was a real El Niño anyway) which would possibly mean the summer will be milder than initially anticipated. Much like the weather in mid to late November usually means nothing as far as the winter. The same rule usually applies to the summer and May. Many of the heat records being broken in the southeast a few days ago were from May 1996. That didn’t translate too well into the summer

The NAM definitely had yesterday’s push correctly modeled about 24-36 hours out but it seemed the consensus from the NWS offices was to go more towards the GFS/Euro which held the boundary further north. Usually we don’t see back door fronts stall over Connecticut. The tendency is they either stall in central NJ or way up in RI/MA. If the models want to show something in between you usually should side on one of those other two scenarios as it’s common those will be what happens

Sitting in Vincent’s in Westbury LI just has a massive strike and clap of thunder

The overcast deck is really thin right now across ENJ into WRN LI. I wouldn’t be surprised if it totally broke in the next 1-2 hours

Boundary looks like it’s trying to move back NE in the last half hour. I don’t think it really gets far though

It doesn’t seem to be verifying too well in NW PA. The NAM is clearly too slow in NW PA. The RGEM may be as well. I think the HRDPS might be closest as of 17Z

It tends to be good with timing but otherwise beyond hour 6-8 it’s hard to trust. Yesterday morning it was gung ho on the 22-00Z period til it began catching on around 16-17Z that 00-03 would likely be the main time. I’m not too enthralled today north of TTN. Despite those reflectivities looking good on the HRRR/NAM/RGEM I think this may end up being very MCS like. Entirely elevated with maybe a SVR TSTM warning or two occasionally. It may also end up being much slower moving and progressing, maybe not arriving til 23-00 and lasting til 03-04. The 3KM NAM seed yo try and hint at that that though it didn’t really take the idea and run with it totally. Normally storms that approach from more of NW or N direction here hold together better because the sea breeze impacts them later vs when they have to cross the entire length of NJ but today the air will be stable even in N NJ and SE NY

I love the cell with a hook in the middle of the ocean east of Atlantic City

Would be surprised if the cell on I40 in Oklahoma isn’t tornadic soon

That lone cell in western OK may do something real soon

That said I believe the majority of tornadoes under 1/8th mile wide are EF1 or less and rarely will you see a wedge be an EF0 or EF1 but it does happen sometimes