SnowGoose69

More models nailed it than we realized. It was just hard to believe this time of year with ESE flow in the mid levels and the surface supposedly going east as well that we’d see anything at best better than a ton of sleet. I wasn’t so much surprised by the fact the surface winds stayed NE as the last 5 years or so we’ve seen highs seemingly able to anchor better CAD into the metro than we ever did before but how the mid levels didn’t get overwhelmed I’ll never know. The lesson might be that SE flow in the mid levels doesn’t get underdone by models as severely as SW flow does. Most showed a near isothermal layer or -1 and I thought that would verify +1-2. Another interesting factor yesterday was how most stations went 080-090 as the snow moved in and then went right back to 030-050 soon after. That almost seemed to be some sort of frontogenetical inflow into the leading edge of the snow

Unlikely given most of the factors in the long range and the enso right now

It seems slightly low given the .79 liquid. Newark has .88 liquid we have to see what their snow total is

The wind directions this morning gave it away to me but I still didn’t think it would hold on this long I felt maybe JFK to rain at 22Z and LGA by 00

.64 liquid

Late last winter I thought they stopped taking that 4pm measurement if I remember correctly

.64 now in New York City. This should be the 2nd largest daily November snow. They might need to measure before the standard 7pm time though because any sleet and rain will compact it

This is certainly the worst positive bust since probably 12/5/03. There’s been some forecast moderate storms that ended up very big but it’s been awhile since something expected to be next to nothing ended up this bad. I think it’s a bigger bust than 2/2008

Newark now at 6 inches.

Wow. Central Park .25 liquid last hour

4pm snow measurements were funky. LGA reported 1.2 on .19 and JFK 3.2 on 2.5. Central Park didn’t report

Climate report at 445 will likely tell us. They’ve had .21 liquid so I would guess close to 2 inches although been more since top of the hour

Funny how JFK is warmer than LGA. That 070 wind is mild this time of year

It usually begins to slow down as it gets north of TTN

And here comes the CT river valley dry punch. Snow shield starting to slow as it approaches the metro but continues advancing over WRN NJ. It happens every time