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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. I think the 51 at Central Park might survive. Pretty good gap in the rain coming and this time of year it doesn’t take much even with a north to northeast CAA setup to get 3-4-5 degrees if you see the ceilings come up to 2-3,000 feet mid afternoon
  2. It feels as if the weather has sucked the last few days of May now for most of the last 6-7 years
  3. The all time record low maxes should get smashed easily tomorrow at EWR LGA and JFK of 60 58 and 57. I'm not so sure about the 51 in NYC. I think tomorrow has to be watched for a sneaky period where ceilings could rise to 2000-3000ft between rain and we might warm up more than expected.
  4. Yeah I’m fairly confident at this stage that the 12Z Euro is close to the eventual evolution though I don’t buy the come back or secondary feature late Saturday. The pattern screams suppressed and done to me after the first wave. Some models also show the funky occlusion type feature like the GFS but again doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.
  5. A fairly strong shift today in all the 12Z models to keep the rain south 5/28-/5/30...probably too early yet to spike the football but the pattern did scream suppression to a degree there.
  6. The good news is it can't get much worse so at 7 days out you're in a good place if you want it to change.
  7. Tomorrow looks very April 2017ish for the Atlanta metro...not sure it will be tornadic but could be several rounds of severe storms all day
  8. There was a real nasty hail event in May or June of 94 in Rego Park/Forest Hills where they got about 2-3 minutes of 1.75-2.00 inch hail. It cracked the windows in 2 places on my dad's car...he was driving about 25-30 at the time which probably did not help
  9. This is about the only way that WRN LI can get hit effectively from TSTMs this early in the season by a cold front, have them approach from the SW cutting across NJ out to Sandy Hook where they limit exposure time to the sea breeze or ocean flow...the other is a N or NNW approach but that rarely occurs before middle of June and in summer
  10. Next winter it looks like we won't have the ENSO issue so we will have to hope the MJO does not spend the entire winter in 3-4-5-6. There is a decent chance we will have blocking in the first half of next winter. Historically there has been some tendency for neutral ENSO winters following winters where there was significant blocking to start off similarly. The bad news is they have also had a strong tendency to go strongly +AO/NAO in the back half.
  11. This winter while the anomalies for a long time early on resembled a Nino vs a Nina I feel behaved more like a Nina than any of the recent El Ninos which basically behaved like La Ninas. I think the reason the first part of this winter was so insanely mild despite the AO/NAO was the horrendous snow cover in Asia in the fall as well as the way Canada got torched in November. I
  12. The pattern the next 10 days when you just loop the Op GFS recent runs really looks more like a super Nino type pattern again...the only thing Nina like is the general high heights in the SE but overall if you look at temp departures in the SE they are not that much above normal for the period
  13. More or less same as 12Z run...less than the 18Z...the NYC metro is .35-.45 from north to south today through 00z with that very sharp gradient into CNJ
  14. There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct. I'll never forget that.
  15. There is huge bust potential with this. I could see a scenario where the metro gets 1-2 inches and I could see them getting 7-9...and I'm talking just in the 13-22Z period tomorrow
  16. If you told me the that after the 18Z Euro the NAM at 00Z would come in drier than any of its previous runs I wouldn’t have believed it
  17. The 3km NAM is basically snow from 16Z to 20Z then sleet. It’s last few runs have been widely erratic on the start time of the snow. The only thing it’s consistently been showing is the changeover at 20-21
  18. 2/12/94 did not have much of a surface low though. It was purely overrunning, it was basically a baby version of PD2...similar setup to that but shorter duration with a raging +NAO where as I believe PD2 NAO was flipping from neg-pos..
  19. The Euro has had this issue the last few storms...its tended it seems to be flatter than other guidance until the last 1-2 model cycles and then came north. Given the pattern I was confused as to why the WAA precip would be shunted east that severely...I had never seen that before in a setup such as this...part of it is the progression of the coastal development but it still seemed to be pushing things too far east.
  20. Its huge down this way because if you shift most models 30 miles NW tomorrow afternoon NYC could see 8, if you shift them 30 south they get 2.
  21. High res models are beginning to indicate it could be a case of the area starting to snow not til 14-15Z and then within 60-90 mins of onset immediately going to a period of mod-heavy with most accumulation occurring in 2-3 hours
  22. It has maybe 4-5 inches before 00Z in NYC...its way later on start time but the HRRR is moving that direction too that 14-15Z could be when this starts...this event has pretty massive bust potential because if we get fringed we likely never flip to sleet at all but might snow for 30 hours. If the Euro is 30 miles too far south we might see 7 inches before 4pm but then inevitably if the warm advection precip is more north we flip to sleet by 4pm
  23. PHL got nothing. The snow band got to about WRI/NEL and that was a matter of fact WRI I think got 3-4 inches in one hour and then the snow band immediately kicked east again...that was when the NYC NWS and most private sector forecasters realized it was not gonna happen
  24. 12KM NAM coming in more S-E with later changeover...definite move towards Euro idea albeit it was a just a same time the 12km NAM delayed the sleet change by an hour or so...the 3km isnt in far enough yet
  25. I want to see some sort of south shift on the 3k NAM...the HREF/NAM combo argues the Euro is likely a tad too far south tomorrow with the snows which would indicate 4-6 is likely for NYC before any sleet changeover...the sleet changeover if you blend the NAM/Euro is closer to 23-00Z but the amounts are obviously less