SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Tuesday might be the day for that but still too far out
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Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen. Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability
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Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.
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Mets/Phillies game may not finish, especially with Nola going the Mets may actually score runs and it likely won't be a fast game. The VIS of 1-3 SM is moving south fast towards the park and should be there by 730-8
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Isn't it believed to be poor mitigation or prevention by Canada mostly? We had plenty of very dry periods before and this did not happen
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Interesting how the sea breeze at JFK seems to be keeping their vis way up vs other stations. Probably is clearing out that bottom 1500-2000ft
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Pretty low VIS in CNY now up to the N shore of Lake Ontario then seems better north of that once in Canada. That should make its way here though it may raise a tad once it does but could see 3-4SM again this afternoon.
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Hard to know with satellite down but looking at obs back to the Great Lakes I'd say using pre 1960s forecasting that the worst smoke will go S and W of here
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High topped showers or storms now forming in NE PA
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Except for the band that just crossed LI and SW CT the smoke aloft is mostly thinner than yesterday so many places are warmer than this time on Tuesday. Also more favorable downslope. Yesterday the lack of surface heating kept winds down somewhat and even allowed LGA to stay more 210-230 most of the day.
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I suspect it either fails in the senate or a bunch of states opt out of it which will lead to it never occurring. I'd hate to live in a place like Grand Rapids/Indy/Amarillo with a 920 am sunrise
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BID’s wind sensor looks like it got taken out. I wonder how strong they gusted
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The strongest gusts likely were just east of FOK which peaked at 56, the 87 from Baiting Hollow indicates that somewhat
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FOK 53knot gust
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Quite a few bigger towns or cities taking direct hits at the moment. Minneapolis Philly DC. Tulsa is gusting to 55kts too
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I remember that day in 1995, I was on the boat with my dad and brother and was miserable and just wanted to go home
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The other mesonet station near the park is 101. I always find that is more realistic for temps on days like this
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My guess is NYC will fail to reach 100 both days but may get a 99
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Bridgeport 45knot gust with that cell
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Cells forming in E NY moving S-SE. These may impact Suffolk county later if the RRFS is correct
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NYC ASOS getting 46kts is impressive with all the trees around it, likely means it was 10 knots or more higher
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LaGuardia 56 knots
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EWR/TEB both gusted over 50
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnowGoose69 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There is no question there is some type of correlation too, at least for places like AL/GA/MS/SC for the frequency to be higher during the cold AMO periods. That does not seem to be as much a factor for TN/NC/AR/OK/TX. But there is a higher peak, even in El Nino winters for those other 4 states in the 70s/80s and even during the more neutral or weaker warmer AMO period of the 40s/50s. I don't know if that is purely that colder outbreaks are more common then or perhaps/phasing amplified systems that cut north of them are less likely. -
There is likely going to be an area near NYC or just south which gets impacted the hardest as the front approaches and enhances the inbound TSTM area from the W-SW. The HREF has been showing this
