SnowGoose69

LGA airport 1.25 this hour

NYC 142346 SPECI 142343Z AUTO 05008G19KT 010V090 1SM RA BR BKN008 OVC085 23/22 A3006 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0205 T02280217

HRRR its last 2 runs seems to be getting the yips and being fooled a bit by the cloud cover from SW NY back through NE PA. Its got notably less activity overall than it did 3-4 runs ago. But with the triggering mechanisms in place I'd be surprised if coverage was not widespread anyway

Sucks that it sounds like the NAM is getting scrapped next year in favor of the new RRFS. I am not too thrilled on this as the 3km NAM just blows away anything, even the Euro on WAA winter events. No word yet on if they'll go the NGM route and let the NAM keep running for 3-5 years, just with no new updates or if it'll just be totally scrapped ala the LFM when the ETA came about. Overall, the ETA changed forecasting a ton. Up until 1994 when it came about, winter forecasting inside 24-36 hours largely sucked, especially when it came to Miller Bs or clipper/sharp trof cyclogenesis generating systems. The Euro was not used much yet because it ran once per day and came out 12 hours later. After the March 93 storm many began using the Euro/UKMET more as they both did so well at long range with it.

43kt gust at JFK

LGT is being detected in the cell that formed just 5 mi or so E of LGA

50KTS at TTN

My main concern yesterday was the greatest instability was largely south. Despite the fact we did get well into the 90s there was still indications that north of TTN less activity would develop

Fortunately the front was well timed. I say that since I am working today. Had this front been 75 miles further east 2-3 hours earlier we'd have had quite the TSTM day, but it ended up slower by a bit than what it appeared 1-2 days ago. I think 00-02Z is the best window for most areas but the activity will likely be weakening, I have some doubts though it weakens as much as the HRRR is showing

Windhoek Nambia broke their all time record low 2 times over for June in a span of a week but its fairly mild now in SA and southern Africa after it had been cold for a couple of weeks

More in terms of coverage of storms and flooding than severe

Tomorrow looks pretty bad to me, could be almost as bad a day as 6/19 was possibly

Surprisingly 2 degrees short of the June all time record

JFK might have a shot at 100 again if winds do not turn til 19z

Totally forgot June 2003 had a heatwave. I swore we had no 90s that summer until mid August. I remember being mad the day of the blackout was the only hot day the entire summer.

JFK 200 again, down to 93

LGA 100

JFK went back to 280 wind, now 102 again

Block Island I believe hit 91 which breaks their June all time record

99 LGA 99 FRG, could be a couple of late 100s

You can see that warming happening now in Queens N of the sea breeze. LGA turning a bit more WNW on their wind. Still think 100 could happen there after 330

I am surprised they hit 99 honestly, felt 97-98 would be it

If the sea breeze can advance another 2-3 miles it may cause LGA to hit 100, should see some degree of warming or wind shift to 280-290 north of it

JFK is 22006KT now

JFK about to flip SW I think. The station in Valley Stream went S as well as one in southern Brooklyn. JFK is now more like 290-300