SnowGoose69

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. Next winter it looks like we won't have the ENSO issue so we will have to hope the MJO does not spend the entire winter in 3-4-5-6. There is a decent chance we will have blocking in the first half of next winter. Historically there has been some tendency for neutral ENSO winters following winters where there was significant blocking to start off similarly. The bad news is they have also had a strong tendency to go strongly +AO/NAO in the back half.
  2. This winter while the anomalies for a long time early on resembled a Nino vs a Nina I feel behaved more like a Nina than any of the recent El Ninos which basically behaved like La Ninas. I think the reason the first part of this winter was so insanely mild despite the AO/NAO was the horrendous snow cover in Asia in the fall as well as the way Canada got torched in November. I
  3. The pattern the next 10 days when you just loop the Op GFS recent runs really looks more like a super Nino type pattern again...the only thing Nina like is the general high heights in the SE but overall if you look at temp departures in the SE they are not that much above normal for the period
  4. More or less same as 12Z run...less than the 18Z...the NYC metro is .35-.45 from north to south today through 00z with that very sharp gradient into CNJ
  5. There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct. I'll never forget that.
  6. There is huge bust potential with this. I could see a scenario where the metro gets 1-2 inches and I could see them getting 7-9...and I'm talking just in the 13-22Z period tomorrow
  7. If you told me the that after the 18Z Euro the NAM at 00Z would come in drier than any of its previous runs I wouldn’t have believed it
  8. The 3km NAM is basically snow from 16Z to 20Z then sleet. It’s last few runs have been widely erratic on the start time of the snow. The only thing it’s consistently been showing is the changeover at 20-21
  9. 2/12/94 did not have much of a surface low though. It was purely overrunning, it was basically a baby version of PD2...similar setup to that but shorter duration with a raging +NAO where as I believe PD2 NAO was flipping from neg-pos..
  10. The Euro has had this issue the last few storms...its tended it seems to be flatter than other guidance until the last 1-2 model cycles and then came north. Given the pattern I was confused as to why the WAA precip would be shunted east that severely...I had never seen that before in a setup such as this...part of it is the progression of the coastal development but it still seemed to be pushing things too far east.
  11. Its huge down this way because if you shift most models 30 miles NW tomorrow afternoon NYC could see 8, if you shift them 30 south they get 2.
  12. High res models are beginning to indicate it could be a case of the area starting to snow not til 14-15Z and then within 60-90 mins of onset immediately going to a period of mod-heavy with most accumulation occurring in 2-3 hours
  13. It has maybe 4-5 inches before 00Z in NYC...its way later on start time but the HRRR is moving that direction too that 14-15Z could be when this starts...this event has pretty massive bust potential because if we get fringed we likely never flip to sleet at all but might snow for 30 hours. If the Euro is 30 miles too far south we might see 7 inches before 4pm but then inevitably if the warm advection precip is more north we flip to sleet by 4pm
  14. PHL got nothing. The snow band got to about WRI/NEL and that was all...as a matter of fact WRI I think got 3-4 inches in one hour and then the snow band immediately kicked east again...that was when the NYC NWS and most private sector forecasters realized it was not gonna happen
  15. 12KM NAM coming in more S-E with later changeover...definite move towards Euro idea albeit it was a just a nudge...at same time the 12km NAM delayed the sleet change by an hour or so...the 3km isnt in far enough yet
  16. I want to see some sort of south shift on the 3k NAM...the HREF/NAM combo argues the Euro is likely a tad too far south tomorrow with the snows which would indicate 4-6 is likely for NYC before any sleet changeover...the sleet changeover if you blend the NAM/Euro is closer to 23-00Z but the amounts are obviously less
  17. The RGEM is probably way too late getting the snow in...the one thing I learned this winter is never go against start time on the 3km NAM. It has repeatedly won that war while the RGEM has lost. The RGEM still gives pretty good snows 17-21z like the NAM does, it just has nothing really from 10-16z
  18. The NAM idea wins IMO 75-25...the NAM is probably underdone on the post 22Z activity but the GFS is overdone I think Thu night and Fri. The setup screams to me overall that nothing big is coming from the coastal outside of eastern SNE..
  19. the 3km NAM is correct about 8 out of times but those 2 where it is overly aggressive on the warming can really screw up a forecast because 2-3 hours too early on the changeover can be 5 inches more of snow if you're seeing heavy rates just out ahead of the changeover line which you often will
  20. I am suspicious of where it shows that warm layer...given the winds I more think that the warming in the 650-700 layer is underdone and that warming below 800 is overdone...I still think NYC flips over to sleet by 20 or 21Z at the latest
  21. The totals may be underdone a bit on the NAM...if you stop at 20Z when it shows NYC going to sleet the 3 and 12km average out to only 3-4 inches...given the frontogenesis showing up I think the period from 17-20 see could have moderate-heavy snow and it really is not indicating that so I still think 4-6 is more likely.
  22. Inside 48 it has not been overly crazy...beyond that it has been.
  23. Some of that is likely sleet....I estimated on QPF about 5.5 in NYC through 00Z...I don't think we can assume all of that post 00Z QPF is snow
  24. Same idea as Euro...the best WAA stuff misses NYC just south then the main coastal stuff regenerates but mostly well north....its probably around 5 inches in NYC if I had to guess....I assume everything after 00Z is a mix
  25. I LOL'd at the insane area of 2-3 inch per hour rates on the 3kn NAM....given the general trends in recent storms its exactly where you want it 36-42 hours out if you're near NYC