SnowGoose69

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. There has definitely been several cases where its been present late November into December and flipped. 1993 was one I know of. I think it was there more or less all of November into mid December.
  2. Has there ever been a case of identical US landfall spots occurring with 2 storms in the same year?
  3. KNPA gusting to 65kts in W FL panhandle now...all other stations too far north. There was another station in SE AL but it got knocked out
  4. I’m not sure there is enough time. If it’s just starting now it can be 36 hours sometimes til you see the weakening ERC cycle. Also remember the surge will lag pn decrease. If it were to go to a 3 or a 4 and then collapsed back to a strong 1 or 2 it might still have surge of a 3 when it comes in. Katrina more or less had 5 surge even though it was a 3
  5. that’s probably not going to be correct. The UKMET inside this close a range will sometimes do funky stuff with tropical tracks. I give it more belief at day 3-4 usually than this close in
  6. This is my thinking. I never trust any storm in the GOM even if the conditions don’t look very good
  7. This is one of those days the HRRR has no clue. It’s not even seeing the action currently ongoing
  8. I have to say I did not expect them to move the track east
  9. The problem is this system is moving somewhat fast for a GOM landfalling hurricane. You could see widespread damage up as far as Shreveport possibly
  10. The bad news is the landfall point at this range rarely is correct
  11. Kingston reporting light TSRA. Montego Bay reporting 1 1/4 mile moderate TSTM
  12. I still find it funny the next storm name is Nana. That’s not even a name, thats a nickname. If that ends up a long tracker social media is going to be a joke fest for two weeks
  13. Depends how many are out. If you compare it to Sandy you may get an idea. Long Island has 30% the number of outages compared to Sandy and that took 16 days although by Day 11 90% or more were back
  14. There is no doubt winds were lower than Sandy. I guess we had more leaves off the trees than we realized because way more trees are down today but for some reason I recall that being a late foliage season. I felt winds in Merrick were 80-90 during Sandy and the obs at ISP and JFK of 94 and 75 sort of confirm that. Today was 65-75 and way more trees went down
  15. Yeah if its 368K I think most are back by Day 5 but some will take 7-10, very few, but some. I think Gloria and Sandy all were over 1 million
  16. Only in the year 2020 could I see Isles and Rangers fans all over social media complaining they could not watch/now can't watch their team's game because of power outages...in AUGUST!
  17. Its just hard to get it. Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend. The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup
  18. NHC did not do recon then or was not doing them once north of a certain lat (I forget which). They basically said that as of 15Z as the hurricane was off the NJ shore it had winds of 130mph.. You can find these videos on youtube from TWC. It was not until months later on re-analysis they realized it was probably either 85-90 at landfall. ISP gusted to 84 mph and BDR to 96. Its believed that there was an area near William Floyd corridor where winds were 95-115 in gusts based on structural damage.
  19. The area still has not been hit by a legit hurricane since 1985. I mean Bob went way east, Sandy was more a polar low in the mid latitudes, and Irene was a TS. I have to feel a cat 1 or 2 striking LI is coming eventually
  20. I think the majority of the strongest winds were in a corridor of Nassau to West Suffolk. It seems less outages and damage occurred near the Queens/Nassau border and east of FRG
  21. It was also funkily updating even when it was working. I know quite a few people who are out and were out at 1-130 and it never showed them having no power even when it was still updating