SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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12Z AIEURO was way north...Op Euro a mixed bag mess.
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"Don’t do it" 2026 Blizzard obs, updates and pictures.
SnowGoose69 replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Airport had 5 at 7am. I have to think they are near 12 now already -
Bit of a model battle on the Thursday event. I sort of lean towards a flatter idea now but the setup looks sort of disjointed on many ensembles. Not sure anything over 2-4 is realistic.
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.38 liquid since then. So would assume they at least have 19 or so now
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Providence will likely see the most of the airports. I could see 30 there. The HREF was fairly close with many areas on this
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The RGEM has at times been a bit too east with very deep coastals. The UKMET used to have that bias but it seems gone the last several years.
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KJRB in SRN manhattan reporting TSSN
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JFK is gusting to 45kts now. I am not sure about anyone getting sustained of 35 though for a long period, maybe 28-32
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LI's window is largely going to be 3-7am I think. Would not be surprised if some areas see 8-12 inches in that period, we'll have to see if any extremely intense bands form.
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So they got 7.0 inches on .51 liquid since 7pm, ratios as a whole have been higher than I expected, even before winds pick up. I'd expect they will come back closer to 10:1 the rest of the way
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The heavy band now is close to where the 00z 3km NAM showed the best FGEN. If its right that axis does end up maybe 20-30 miles east after 06Z so would be more over W-CNTRL LI
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Ratios may be a bit better than 10:1 now due to winds not being that bad yet. EWR .10 liquid last hour 2 inches. NYC ASOS had .12 liquid
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Those areas heaviest snows may be in the 07-11Z period.
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7pm Snowfall Reports: NWS NY: 2.5" Newark, NJ: 2.0" Islip, NY: 2.0" Central Park, NY: 1.8" JFK: 1.7" LGA: 1.7" Bridgeport, CT: 0.8"
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Euro AI as good as its become you can still see it struggles with some aspects. Its uniform QPF and amounts from like eastern LI to Queens is not realistic. Its highly likely those areas would see more snow than the metro
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Yeah, the Friday factor helped out in 1983 too. Many people who got stuck in 83 were people going out for the night to dinner etc thinking we were only getting 3-6 or 4-8. Many people left work around 2-3-4 and made it home. I think PD was also the next Monday maybe so might have been less people working. 87 there was a LIRR strike too
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Happened in December 03 too but by then most cars were front wheel drive so basically it was just severe traffic, did not really have people abandoning cars.
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I am a tad surprised that JFK is still rain...the soundings do not show anything close to a deep enough layer through 1500 feet for that but should be all snow by 19Z at latest.
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I still lean near the low end. Above the RGEM but below many others. Maybe 12-16 near NYC though obviously if a February 06 band sets up that goes out the window, but there is always risk of that
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The day the event started the forecast had backed off to like 10-15 or 12-18 but it was evident it was in trouble early.
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that and also like a 12/09 or 2/2013 where it ends up sneaking more east than expected, even if its 30-40 miles that could be difference of 8-9 inches vs 15
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The Euro has largely been too dry on QPF all winter nationwide it seems. I have seen it miss amounts by several inches, even in storms where only like 5-8 inches fell
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There has been some others, most just missed us or clipped us. 12/27/04 was one I believe.
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Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high
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Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds. It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then
