SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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1996 was when most of LI got 5-10 inches of snow. I think it never really accumulated west of there. Mets opener in 2013 or 2014 ISP had 5 inches of snow that morning, not sure it ever snowed by the stadium
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I'd say we can toss Thursday now just about though in winters like this I would caution don't dump it totally. Because this is the type of winter it'll find a way to make a comeback and we get a couple of inches.
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Now the 18Z AI way south and the Euro lost it
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I was suspicious of how much liquid fell from 2-4pm. The 1-2pm made sense but I wondered if the ensuing QPF was perhaps melting of snow off the sensor or something as it seemed way too high. I could buy they got 20.1 or something as it snowed decently from 1-2pm but not sure they realistically got anything after that.
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NYC schools never closed til the 2/11/94 debacle. After that they more or less close for any major snow event.
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In general any El Nino, especially in today's climate of over 1.5 is going to be a fairly mild winter nationwide. Even 09-10 was not all that cold, it was just narrowly cold enough to snow.
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I still don't think its that strong. I've been tossing the CFS/Euro on ENSO predictions for a few years now. They've generally been overdone.
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QBO may not be favorable next winter. I think even if the El Nino is like 0.8-1.3 which is ideal magnitude it may be heavily backloaded with December at risk to be very warm. I saw 86-87 being thrown around early as possibly being a similar match.
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The HREF seems to do well on big events where there is going to be widespread 8 plus amounts. Lesser storms, especially with marginal temps it seems to be overdone most times.
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The CPK measurement is logical to me, LGA is a bit suspicious
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It'll be snowing for awhile longer so I think they measure again at 4-430
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12Z AIEURO was way north...Op Euro a mixed bag mess.
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"Don’t do it" 2026 Blizzard obs, updates and pictures.
SnowGoose69 replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Airport had 5 at 7am. I have to think they are near 12 now already -
Bit of a model battle on the Thursday event. I sort of lean towards a flatter idea now but the setup looks sort of disjointed on many ensembles. Not sure anything over 2-4 is realistic.
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.38 liquid since then. So would assume they at least have 19 or so now
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Providence will likely see the most of the airports. I could see 30 there. The HREF was fairly close with many areas on this
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The RGEM has at times been a bit too east with very deep coastals. The UKMET used to have that bias but it seems gone the last several years.
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KJRB in SRN manhattan reporting TSSN
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JFK is gusting to 45kts now. I am not sure about anyone getting sustained of 35 though for a long period, maybe 28-32
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LI's window is largely going to be 3-7am I think. Would not be surprised if some areas see 8-12 inches in that period, we'll have to see if any extremely intense bands form.
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So they got 7.0 inches on .51 liquid since 7pm, ratios as a whole have been higher than I expected, even before winds pick up. I'd expect they will come back closer to 10:1 the rest of the way
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The heavy band now is close to where the 00z 3km NAM showed the best FGEN. If its right that axis does end up maybe 20-30 miles east after 06Z so would be more over W-CNTRL LI
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Ratios may be a bit better than 10:1 now due to winds not being that bad yet. EWR .10 liquid last hour 2 inches. NYC ASOS had .12 liquid
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Those areas heaviest snows may be in the 07-11Z period.
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7pm Snowfall Reports: NWS NY: 2.5" Newark, NJ: 2.0" Islip, NY: 2.0" Central Park, NY: 1.8" JFK: 1.7" LGA: 1.7" Bridgeport, CT: 0.8"
