SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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KJRB in SRN manhattan reporting TSSN
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JFK is gusting to 45kts now. I am not sure about anyone getting sustained of 35 though for a long period, maybe 28-32
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LI's window is largely going to be 3-7am I think. Would not be surprised if some areas see 8-12 inches in that period, we'll have to see if any extremely intense bands form.
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So they got 7.0 inches on .51 liquid since 7pm, ratios as a whole have been higher than I expected, even before winds pick up. I'd expect they will come back closer to 10:1 the rest of the way
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The heavy band now is close to where the 00z 3km NAM showed the best FGEN. If its right that axis does end up maybe 20-30 miles east after 06Z so would be more over W-CNTRL LI
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Ratios may be a bit better than 10:1 now due to winds not being that bad yet. EWR .10 liquid last hour 2 inches. NYC ASOS had .12 liquid
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Those areas heaviest snows may be in the 07-11Z period.
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7pm Snowfall Reports: NWS NY: 2.5" Newark, NJ: 2.0" Islip, NY: 2.0" Central Park, NY: 1.8" JFK: 1.7" LGA: 1.7" Bridgeport, CT: 0.8"
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Euro AI as good as its become you can still see it struggles with some aspects. Its uniform QPF and amounts from like eastern LI to Queens is not realistic. Its highly likely those areas would see more snow than the metro
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Yeah, the Friday factor helped out in 1983 too. Many people who got stuck in 83 were people going out for the night to dinner etc thinking we were only getting 3-6 or 4-8. Many people left work around 2-3-4 and made it home. I think PD was also the next Monday maybe so might have been less people working. 87 there was a LIRR strike too
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Happened in December 03 too but by then most cars were front wheel drive so basically it was just severe traffic, did not really have people abandoning cars.
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I am a tad surprised that JFK is still rain...the soundings do not show anything close to a deep enough layer through 1500 feet for that but should be all snow by 19Z at latest.
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I still lean near the low end. Above the RGEM but below many others. Maybe 12-16 near NYC though obviously if a February 06 band sets up that goes out the window, but there is always risk of that
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The day the event started the forecast had backed off to like 10-15 or 12-18 but it was evident it was in trouble early.
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that and also like a 12/09 or 2/2013 where it ends up sneaking more east than expected, even if its 30-40 miles that could be difference of 8-9 inches vs 15
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The Euro has largely been too dry on QPF all winter nationwide it seems. I have seen it miss amounts by several inches, even in storms where only like 5-8 inches fell
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There has been some others, most just missed us or clipped us. 12/27/04 was one I believe.
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Yeah but if we are 30 gusting 45-50 I don’t think it’ll be that high
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Ratios with this will be like 9-10:1 probably because the wild winds. It may be 27-29 by the time winds really ramp up but if we are as gusty as 12/26/10 we saw what happened then
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None of these really fit. Many of those events surprisingly did jackpot areas just inland a bit but the systems were not this deep. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2026022100&map=thbCOOP72
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The sustained winds on the 18Z GFS MOS are crazy. Its not often you see 30s on there. MOS guidance tends to run low on sustained winds often times in deep lows.
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I was half joking when I said the GFS was due to score one of these hits, looks like it finally did but to a degree it was right for the wrong reason. This is a rare period historically to see big snow events here and you can see that on the daily snow records on 2/22 and 2/23, mostly all 6 inches or lower.
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SnowGoose69 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Its on Weatherbell but there is only a 00Z and 12Z run there. I am not sure if some websites have an 18 and 06 -
We’ll see what ends up happening in the end but DT’s post about the NWS soundings a few days back could have something to do with it because we’ve seen issues all winter
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The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board. Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro
