SnowGoose69

It sure is weird generally seeing more GEFS members and more GFS Op runs wanna be cold....thats the complete reverse of what we've seen most of the last 4 years when we have gotten faked out in the long range....it may be the typical tendency or "rumored tendency" as Tip said that the GFS just generally does worse in El Nino winters and the EPS/Euro tend to do better.

Probably too late to matter, if it did that the impacts would not take hold til mid March when we'd be done anyway...I still think 2/12-3/5 is going to likely average below normal though I am wondering if the MA might be more favorable for any storm track

Mixed...I just looked from 190-204 the Op has the trof a bit more west than the ensemble average does but many individual members are similar to the Op

I'm semi confused why the Op GFS is so consistently going relatively cold....often times you can look to the model MJO idea but if anything the GFS progression should argue more for warmth than the Euro.

11/29/95 lol

The 06z Op run was hilariously "cold" from 150 to the end of the run, it tries to sort of 03-04/04-05 the CONUS where basically only the immediate NE and E coast has any semblance of cold air or below normal temps but that is probably a pipe dream as far as things being that good for that stretch

The ENSO models are gonna be brutally wrong if we get a strong Nina...not a single one really brings us below -0.8

I do not think its flipping by then...that said I am not highly confident right now outside of the belief that probably 2/1-2/7 or so is the worst stretch...I am not sure about there being a -PNA like ensembles sorta show since the ensemble charts show it being positive...it could just be a beatdown of the ridge due to the jet which is being displayed as a -PNA look on the anomaly height charts.

Well NYC is still alive to re break last winters record, don’t think it’ll happen though

The GEPS was semi trying the same late and the GEFS at 15-16 was maybe showing higher heights in AK/NWT somewhat but you’d think it’s 2/10 at least before that translates to anything

The GEFS seems to truly have no idea whats gonna happen at the moment, its current run is basically a 180 of the previous 3-4 runs past 300 hours and even those were bad patterns.

Yeah, its all cumulative....in general if you have a near or below normal January which most places have had or will through 1/22, even if you go +5 for 15-20 days you won't see the degree of blooming you saw last year because January was so much milder than it has been in 2024 and blooming as well as fall color change on trees has a bit of an additive effect on what happened in the previous couple of months vs what is currently happening. Also due to lack of a SER this pattern while above normal won't produce temps like you saw in 2018-2019-2023

Yeah I believe 8-10 inches through this stage for them is close to that though for BWI its likely still below

03-04 86-87 ithink are a couple of other years as well, maybe even 85-86

It’s probably more the EPS is focusing on the whole Pac Jet but reality is by D16 on most of the three ensembles is well past when that issue peaks, it more or less peaks in the next 7 days

Just realized DCA BWI PHL will have more snow on the season than even BOS has by the end of today, thats crazy

To a degree that’s what’s happening but unlike 2/2010 for example HPN/SWF/DXR are snowing, this is the usual case of that dry nose pushing through the metro from the NE so they can take 1-2 hours longer to saturate between like 3-8K than areas west or even due north

Which is sort of odd because it’s MJO projection is markedly worse overall than the EPS is so it’s somewhat strange that on the 00Z ensemble it shows a better setup

I think those are possible in SNE. I just feel the worst period might be 2/3-2/10 or so as far as most mild

Yeah at least the GEFS seems like it might be about to improve things in the E Pac up through Alaska at the end, the EPS you’d be 10-15 more days probably til you could reset what it shows at 360

The Op GFS was classic 97-98 after like 180 hours...not a terrible pattern but just simply too warm...the SE US would probably average near to slightly below in that pattern but up here would be 3-5 above

TBH I think the torchiest/worst pattern we get might happen between about 2/3-2/9 or so....its still far off but that has the look of worst maybe happening before it reshuffles..the next 12 days may be above normal but there may be chances for something

I still think the IVT will probably perform better than a ton of models show but those amounts north of TTN are nuts...some type of bizarre mesoscale shenanigans would have to unfold for that to transpire

Its always too dry...its probably realistic outside of C-SNJ but I expect there's plenty of 4-6 inch amounts there

PSU in the MA forum has said he's noticed when the wave moves fast it has less impact...might be something to that