SnowGoose69

00 and 97 I think also went pretty strong +PNA I think but can’t recall if they were negative in December or not. I want to say they were not

It’s going to be a battle in January I think of which one gives in first. If it’s the NAO winter is probably done for if we assume we get the February most expect we do based on the IOD/ENSO. If it’s the PNA maybe we can get a crazy 2-3 weeks. I’d still lean towards February probably being bad but in La Niña to El Niño transition years we’ve seen March sometimes be good

Thats like a -7 NAO on the GFS at 300. I'm sure the GEFS will look different.

Chances are those will be wrong. The evolution looks more like an El Nino than anything else as late January looks like the transition you'd often see begin to happen in that type of winter. I highly doubt we have a cold +PNA February

They seem to think we're in an El Nino

As long as Canada stays cold this flips quickly if the PNA goes positive if the other indices largely remain where they are. If somehow though we get a week or 2 of a GOA vortex we're probably done til 1/20 at least. No signs of that though

It shows you how a 500 mile difference in feature placement changes everything. The first 2 weeks of December 2010 you can take all those features and shift them 500 miles west and that was basically the pattern. We did not get any big or notable snows though but we were very cold.

We probably need some heavy changes if we're gonna get that 12th straight La Nina +PNA Jan after a -PNA Dec. I don't see a -2.5 on 12/31 flipping to positive before 1/10 or 1/15. Does not mean we won't see cold and snow though if the AO/NAO are negative

That looks like a lock. Unfortunately if the PNA is still -2 to -3 that won't work, even getting it to 0 is ideal

Well hopefully the GEFS idea of the SER linking with the NAO block does not happen because by the end of the run we have a decent -NAO

They got 2.8 last year and it did not turn out well

JFK broke the record from 12/14/2003 by 0.1

They actually came in 0.1 higher than LGA. You can see a noticeable dip in accumulations in NE NJ near NYC into Queens/Brooklyn. Some of that was the heat island but some also was this area got hit by subsidence somewhat. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

I think they'll be right near 3-3.5

They weren’t that far off. I got 1.6 at 9am. I was surprised how much it melted or must have been melting. My guess is they’ll end around 2.1 to 2.4

.11 liquid since. Probably about 8 or 10:1 so I'd say yeah they have to be near 3.5

All stations will be trying to break the 12/14/03 daily record tomorrow. Not sure any do it, will need over 4.5 to do so except for JFK

Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now. Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes

00Z HREF mean is pretty close to the Euro idea...max is in same zone where it seems to want to go like Dover-Monmouth for the highest amounts https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=ne

I find it funny all top 3 CIPS analogs (12/5/92, 12/8/06 12/13/86) are sort of close at 500, every one was a nothing event with no snow anywhere from what I can tell, 12/5/92 was an epic bust, we had WSWs out down here and saw nothing, I think they actually dropped them late afternoon on 12/5 after putting them out at 4-5pm on 12/4.

The ICON I swear has ideas close to the end result on some events in the 120-150 range when the GFS/CMC are just totally lost but it might just be selective memory by me or the fact at that range its made a few hits and I remember them. The NAM used to have biases/tendencies at 72-84 that gave you a feel for things but its been a good 8-10 years now since those worked. I think upgrades to it ended that and now it often just shows oddball things but I can never find consistent biases anymore like I used to.

The Euro has struggled in the NE on systems that have more NRN and SRN stream interaction or phasing in recent years. I am less concerned about it falling flat on its face with a system like this. But we still have a ways to go.

One thing I will say before the Euro comes out is it has been insanely good the last 3-4 weeks on these MW/Lakes storms. It obviously has been pretty mid on the E Coast. Thats been a tendency now for a few years. For awhile it sucked over amping everything in the 90-120 period. Since the most recent upgrade that bias is gone and its tended more to underamp in the 48-96 period or just do something/ANYTHING that is different from all other models. The good news so far is everything moved towards it the last 2 cycles and this system is a different setup than the one it botched last week so perhaps its onto the idea this time

Next winter may be telling, its TBD but if we have lets say a 0.6-1.2 El Nino and we continue to see the PDO sit more near -1 to like + 0.5 we really want to see some degree of slowing Pac flow/less -PNA etc...if we still see a heavily Nina type pattern even in that type of regime we may be in trouble or at least waiting 5-10 years til we see the Pac go back to a +PDO ERA

Yeah the UKMET did something much bigger just based off the 96 and 120 surface panels but I do not have access to anything else yet, it may have tracked the low too far east from the Delmarva but cannot tell with what I have so far.