SnowGoose69

The Op Euro since the upgrade 2 winters ago in systems that aren’t overly strong at the surface has tended to have a flat bias. I think the ensembles are definitely going to be more north and west. The Euro also tends to make slow adjustments. Sometimes if models are catching onto the setup late the Euro can still be making adjustments inside 12-18 hours

Many cases where the low is above 995-998mb it’s happened

The last few years when the NavGem has been this far north and west at this range it’s rarely not led to the flatter models coming further west

It’s hard to know without details but the UKMET I’m guessing wouldn’t even be snow in ATL. That’s probably the more classic BHM-RMG-CHA snow track

These types of systems are probably the most favorable for that region because they do not tend to move NW as much with time because they don’t have the deep surface low. I’ve seen plenty end of destroying MCN though and missing ATL

The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48

Gloria was still likely stronger than people think though. The insane 125-130 mph forecast they had out was wrong but I still think it was probably 95-105 when it hit. Those winds were purely east of the center and east of it by 20-30 miles since Islip gusted to only 85. BDR gusted to 97. I was in Rocky Point at the time and easily thought we had winds over 100

Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point. It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area. I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst

Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong. Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out. I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now

I think they just don't see the value in it. Much like the 25000ft sensors for the ASOS never really came to pass. They didn't see any reason since these are mostly for aviation purposes and you won't have any operation in these conditions ever

I assume many of them go out due to power but I see many cases where the rest of it keeps working the entire event but the anemometer fails

92mph just broke the ASOS. They should use better equipment on these

15-20 mph if it completes or nears completion. The eye having become bigger today probsbly prevents a 30 mph plus drop from occurring.

I could see it clipping the northeast corner if it were to wobble NNW a bit longer which it seems to be doing now. But it's probably going to resume more WNW motion at some point tonight

Probably little to no chance right now. The coast from NC northward there is still a risk

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Seems way too far out for it to be an ERC

Hurricanes typically don't weaken as much as people think north of the VA/NC 80 degree SST cutoff after late August. They will usually plummet to around 85-90 mph and then can be stubborn beyond that because they are often being aided by some sort of upper level feature and or semi ET transition. In June/July/most of August more weakening seems to occur. This is likely due to SSTs being cooler as there is frequently a lag and less likely to see ET transitions or dynamic upper level features helping systems in summer

I'm pretty sure you can have an ERC delayed by 24-36 hours easily by a landfall. Even a brief one such as a small island

Some hours those obs have come in a good 30 minutes after the hour

Climatologically wise that is not the worst idea. I always tell people, do not forecast near record or record amounts unless model agreement is high.

Xiamen gusting to 80mph and their wind is offshore which means the center passed northeast of them. You'd have to think places just east of center gusting to 100-110. Satellite appearance I think this is a 95-100mph storm, not 125 as JTWC has

The RGEM had been dreadfully slow since its upgrade last year with most events. Using the NAM though which also tends slow I would say anyone from about central northern NJ east sees nothing before 10pm other than spotty light rain here or there.

Its gonna be tight for NYC, my hunch now is it will make it and stall just west of them the stuff off NJ is slowing its west progress which likely means we'll see the west progress slow up north within 1-2 hours.

Down in NYC the Euro may still end up more correct than the GFS or RGEM, the RGEM is verifying too far east right now down there, we have mod-heavy snow in portions of west-central LI it is not seeing or has 50 miles further east. The 12Z Euro will probably end up being off 30 miles on its west edge but because its impacting 20 million people, everybody is going to notice it, if it was over AVP or ABE hardly anybody would.

I was joking when I said Newark may see 8 inches and JFK 20 but it may be close to that.