SnowGoose69

NKT and NCA gusting to 76 and 75kts now. Surprised that ILM hasn’t had stronger gusts to this point

95% of Carteret County is already out of power. That is crazy high given winds only topping 55-65 so far

That flag at frying pan is almost destroyed now

KNKT peak wind of 63kts last hour

KNJM looks like first ASOS to break

Even if the winds don’t catch up you still would prefer to not have a hurricane in an increasing phase as it makes landfall because it’s been shown there is a greater tendency for winds to effectively mix down in those cases. We’ve seen weakening 125mph storms produce surprisingly minimal wind damage at landfall while a strengthening 95mph system produces gusts of 110-120mph

If the HWRF is right it’s best chance may be noon-midnight tomorrow. It correctly predicted today’s weakening somewhat

I still am somewhat concerned it could ramp back up. It’s intact enough that if that shear relaxing and dry air abates it could probably get back to a high end 3

I would be shocked if it weakened that much but it could very well be 80-85 mph

That was a generous 115mph. You could argue with what they found it’s 95-100 right now

If you didn’t know any better looking at satellite today you’d think Florence had its own mind and deliberately deviated north to get away from the shear and dry air and now said okay I’m resuming course again.

I still have some concerns it could intensity tonight and tomorrow once that SW shear nose moves out and it goes over the Gulf Stream. There was also less dry air visible on the WV sat when I looked this morning as it continued further west

Forecast will probably change multiple times. The ridging issue is apparent again though. Undermodeled by most guidance beyond 48-60. That is ultimately perhaps why more than anything we are seeing the stall now. It’s not so much the forward speed because two days ago the slow forward speed was the primary reason for the stall. Now the forward speed over the next couple of days is faster than expected a couple days ago, but because of the ridge the system makes a westward bend and that west bend allows time for the steering flow to weaken and the storm to stall. It’s entirely possible if that ridge strength increases on further runs this may not come anywhere near NC at all and may stall well off SC and then eventually back in

Anytime a stall is expected or modeled the system tends to do so further off the coast than expected. It’s still too early at this point to know if the stall will occur, but if 24-36 hours our from landfall it’s becoming a consensus forecast you can bet it’ll do so a good 30-40 miles plus off the coast which will likely keep the eyewall off shore. This is due to the tendency for hurricanes to attempt the path of least resistance. Even when they’re chugging along at 20kts they often jog right for a bit at the end. Depending how long the stall lasts will determine what strength it is when and if it finally comes ashore. If it takes a more south track and stalls off MYR it’s much more risky this is still a 3 when it backs in

I believe that UKMET run is SW of the 12Z run by a bit

The GFS may simply be moving towards more of a landfall idea vs. a stall. If the UKMET comes into MYR-ILM or the Euro goes more SW I would be more concerned, but not yet

I was thinking the same thing. This could be occurring too early which may allow it to time it’s peak intensity near landfall but it’s too early to know for sure

Probably will see the model cycles waffle 2 more times. Who knows where it ends up. No question OTS is most likely. Overall to me the various ingredients out there don’t add up that’ll be greater than a Cat 1 or 2 when it hits the US if it made it here.

The June through September NAO correlation to winter has generally been poor. Up until about 10 years ago the October NAO correlated inversely to the winter fairly well. If it was positive the tendency was for a negative NAO in winter and vice versa but the last decade or so that has failed more often than not. That said I still generally do not like a strongly -NAO in October. The tendency overall in El Niño years is for October to be somewhat cool in the eastern US and for November to then flip mild. October 97 and 09 fooled everyone pretty good. What happens after 12/10 is usually the decision point. The better El Niño years the back half of December usually shows good indications. The bad years it can torch hard the entire December

There is so much darn mid level moisture out there every time it looks like those clouds are about to clear on satellite they fill right back in

The clouds from the onshore flow were in a small bank and have already cleared all of SNE and even the far eastern north fork of the island and Connecticut. The remainder of the area may remain socked in til early afternoon because of the mid and high level decks above it advecting NE in the SW flow at higher levels. These clouds are mostly associated with blowoff from the showers to the south and may slow down the burnoff of lower clouds. You can get plenty of low clouds here even in August with onshore flow. It’s just more common if that flow is SE than NE. More often ENE or NE flow brings low clouds to New England and decks more in the 2-3K range near NYC if they make it that far southwest. Time is also a factor. It often takes 2 days or more of established SE flow to get the low clouds entrenched for long periods. Those patterns are more common before the typical SW Atlantic summer high develops

JFK warmer than LGA now

Hard to tell but may get a few days with more of a WSW flow this time as well so could be hotter days for Long Island

I remember how fun Penn station used to be in summer before 1995

It looks like August will average warmer than July at Central Park. This hasn’t happened a ton but when it has in recent history it has not boded well for the ensuing December more often than not. The years where this occurred since 1950 are 1956, 1959, 1960, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1978, 1980, 1984, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2015, 2016. Out of all those years only 60, 69, 80, 2000, and 2009 were cold Decembers and I’m not sure 2000 really qualifies since July was so insanely cold you’d have needed an ice age in August to not beat it out