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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in. 2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off. December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals.
  2. SnowGoose69
    I’m afraid these days of ever saying a big event is impossible or even highly unlikely in an unfavorable pattern. It seems the last decade that monster snow events have occurred often in miserable patterns very often
  3. SnowGoose69
    Most of the El Niño Decembers suck. 2002 and 2009 were both close to being fairly meh months snow wise but we got two huge breaks late which allowed the 12/25 and 12/19 events to happen. A 50 mile wide CCB hit the metro and a massive blocking PV in canada split allowing the storm to come north
  4. SnowGoose69
    Is this their biggest storm since 2/15/03? I don’t recall them ever having a big one in 09-10 it felt they mixed in every one
  5. SnowGoose69
    LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?
  6. SnowGoose69
    I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z verified as shown (which it likely won't). There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across. Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected. I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.
  7. SnowGoose69
    That is more due to the ULL feature not developing as well. I would not expect that to translate downstream assuming the surface low and WAA is decent
  8. SnowGoose69
    I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive. There was zero doubt as to if it would get there. As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA
  9. SnowGoose69
    They’re usually only highly accurate in scenarios where you’re locked into a 10 to 1 or more event with no mixing and you’re comfortably below freezing through the event.
  10. SnowGoose69
    You usually can tell on soundings before models pick it up. If you have WSW or SW flow over 30kts in the 700-850 layer anywhere and aren’t at least -2C or colder it’s generally verifying above 0 in the end
  11. SnowGoose69
    ATL continues to survive by a nose. AHN looks in trouble though
  12. SnowGoose69
    December 2000 wasn’t much different. Suppression and dry til the very end. I don’t see this month resembling 89 or 2000 temp wise though or even 09. It’ll probably be much closer to 2002 temp wise
  13. SnowGoose69
    The NAM seems to be playing hard what the main issue is with this event since the beginning. The high timing is 24 hours late for wedging and is generally too far north to ensure a true southern frozen event. If this system was 24 hours slower this is a massive winter storm down to Macon and most of NC is likely snow. If the high is 200 miles south this is all snow for most of northern AL and GA and north
  14. SnowGoose69
    It’s still too early to know if this south push is a long term move. We’ve seen this occur before around this 3-4 day range and then as soon as everything comes ashore and is sampled the models pull a 180 one way or another and never move back
  15. SnowGoose69
    If I remember right the UKMET runs warm on wedge events at this range so odds are you can pull that ice further southwest if that solution verified
  16. SnowGoose69
    I think there will be major ice down to areas NE of ATL. I’m not sure if it makes it into the Metro at all. Especially given it would have to occur mid way through the event. Most icing events in ATL are from the start of the precip or not at all
  17. SnowGoose69
    The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought. The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there. Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does
  18. SnowGoose69
    I was fairly confident that one was coming north because at day 3-4 the only thing really preventing it from coming north was a bow tie shaped vort in Quebec. The vort on most runs had a weakness in the center with two strong lobes on the east and west end and it was inevitable that the vort would probably split enabling the storm to come north. I believe it was the 18Z run on the 16th that showed that but it wasn’t til the 12Z Euro on the 17th that we saw another model show it and the 18Z runs that day all showed a big storm
  19. SnowGoose69
    For whatever reason during El Niño winters there tends to be less variation in model solutions inside 7 days. I’ve never completely understood why
  20. SnowGoose69
    The high is too far north for those sorts of totals into GA and SC. That would at best be mostly sleet there. Think January 88. It was a flatter setup than this was or at least a weaker low, later in the season and still most of NRN AL and GA saw sleet. This probably is north of the 12Z Euro in the end but even if that verifies dead on those places south of the TN-Spartanburg line are likely sleet. Atlanta might even be rain
  21. SnowGoose69
    It’s never ending up as far south as the 12Z Euro solely based on climo. SC and GA don’t see these sort of snow events this early in the season. I doubt it verifies that far down but it sure may end up as a miss still where DCA is hit and nobody north of there
  22. SnowGoose69
    The wedge appears to me to build in way too late for them. I could be wrong but simply looking at timing it seems they’d precipitate for too long prior to the wedging so it would be 35-38 and rain. It’s still very far out though.
  23. SnowGoose69
    I’m still believing there is likely to be a mid to late month warmup. It seems the majority of the El Niño in December either are mostly wall to wall warmth or have an early cold start then generally moderate middle onward
  24. SnowGoose69
    The ridge axis was slightly too far south for ideal cold air draining which is probably which it wasn’t 3-5 degrees colder at most places. The high center was over or just north of the area. The best situation is usually for the high center to be across NE NY, VT or WRN MA with an extending axis to the SSW. That way you get NNE or NE flow all night. When the ridge is more south you’ll usually see NW flow or NNW before it comes overhead which causes slight downsloping most areas. I should also add a high in this position also is more likely to not have crossed the Great Lakes and seen an air mass be modified while a high crossing overhead which tracked across PA likely did cross the lakes
  25. SnowGoose69
    I’ve seen many cases over the years when we are in high end weak to moderate La Niña or El Niño events and long range guidance headed into December shows a pattern that strongly goes against the tendencies for that ENSO setup. In the end you verify closer more often than not to what that ENSO pattern tendency is. In this case it’s mild or near normal in December. I find that in December strong or very weak ENSOs are unpredictable but often times higher end weak to moderate are cut and dried cold La Niña milder El Niño. 2002, 2005, and 2009 all looked at this range that they’d be very cold, mild, very cold respectively. In the end all those Decembers verified closer to what you’d expect temperature wise for the ENSO state they were in
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