Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,188

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The one change today is the models seem to be starting to mature the low faster again offshore. They slowed that process somewhat yesterday which led to lower amounts
  2. SnowGoose69
    The NAM seems the slowest of all the models. The Euro by my interpolation had precip into NYC by 14-1430Z
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah assuming no massive 00Z shift my guess is at 4am they issue a WWA for monday afternoon and evening for 2-4 or something. I'm not sure they won't issue one for tomorrow too from 10am-2pm just because its first event of year but technically the event tomorrow falls short of criteria
  4. SnowGoose69
    The Euro signature producing the snow over NYC and N-NW of there almost looks like a norlun trof
  5. SnowGoose69
    I'm not so sure because if the system develops slower/closes off slower there would be no CCB or heavy snow on the NW side anyway.
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I believe its just the fact that many model runs of the various suites have had the low about 50-80 miles ESE of NYC. In that setup in a closed off system the heavy snow band will sit about 70-90 miles W of the low
  7. SnowGoose69
    Its too warm on the thermals. I think based on the H5 and surface lows there would be more snow into NJ than that.
  8. SnowGoose69
    I still doubt its anything but PL near the city. The NAM warm nose is big. Still nervous for Monday. Don't like the closed low sitting out there but I doubt we have any resolution on that til tomorrow's runs
  9. SnowGoose69
    I thihk for sure someone will fluke their way to big snow totals here similar to 12/25/02 where a very small deformation zone setup that hit NYC and western LI but if you went down to even southern Staten Island or central or eastern LI they saw almost nothing
  10. SnowGoose69
    I think the AO might be overrated here because it’s in the process of flipping. It’s common to see big snows here often times when the AO or NAO are switching phases. I still think we won’t know anything for another 24 hours for Monday because where exactly these bands of snow setup and how fast the system closes won’t be nailed down.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Very good inside 36. I will probably use that entirely to determine ptype for the Sunday morning stuff
  12. SnowGoose69
    It seems with most major systems that whatever the trend is around this time period it reverses and goes the other way the final 24-48 hours before
  13. SnowGoose69
    I don’t expect they see anything with the WAA. It’ll be sleet mostly. Still could be clobbered by the 2nd half of the event. You can’t put a closed low in these locations often and not see heavy snow there. Even if the surface low is over Plymouth if you have a closed off 500 circulation NYC is usually snowing
  14. SnowGoose69
    I generally assume in a pattern with a block that the goal posts will move less inside 72-96 than they otherwise will. This thing may ultimately just have model noise the rest of the way.
  15. SnowGoose69
    It was also a classic due north mover. Any overrunning event that approaches from the south tends to be badly under modeled here at the coast for two reasons. Usually there is intense banding features due to the iso lift and the cold air locks in better as the gradient flow holds 040-060 for a long time.
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah front end could be very icy. I highly doubt at the moment outside of far northern suburbs there’s any appreciable snow on that front end
  17. SnowGoose69
    In that setup it’s hard to have a warm layer for a very long period. That’s a very strong closed system
  18. SnowGoose69
    You can toss the UKIE snow amounts. The city would get bombed on that setup. It has 33-35 with rain with dewpoints of like 30. That’s gonna be snow
  19. SnowGoose69
    The closed low on the NAM from 75-84 is just insanely broad. That means there will be a gigantic dry slot. You can’t really know details for another 36-48 or so on this but someone will be clocked on the W-NW side of that closed low. The slow movement isn’t exactly great because if the low ultimately begins occluding everything west of the closed low will shutoff so you want slow movement to maximize snow potential but not so slow the surface low begins to occludes and everything behind the upper low does
  20. SnowGoose69
    The NAM for the last couple of years has been much better beyond 60 but I’ve found you can only trust it’s solution in that range when it “drum beats” showing virtually the same idea over and over for 3-4 runs. If you see any sort of waffling it can be tossed.
  21. SnowGoose69
    I don’t see there being any snow with that. The GFS is likely too warm showing all rain but I expect it’ll be primarily sleet. There could be some snow for about an hour early but that’s all. I won’t really be confident about Monday til we see the track of the ULL. The bottom line is any closed ULL that is positioned East or northeast of the area can produce heavy snow and you often won’t get details on it til inside 48 when the RGEM or NAM are inside range
  22. SnowGoose69
    It’s basically like 4/1/97
  23. SnowGoose69
    It is but it’s a broad closed low and it’s far north so the surface depiction seems to match it though I’m not sure that Connecticut would be dry slotted that severely
  24. SnowGoose69
    The question is. On that panel is 500 closed off. If it is there would be heavy snow basically from NYC to PVD with the low in that spot
  25. SnowGoose69
    It’s when they call the cops from the street in Los Angeles and get picked up
×
×
  • Create New...