Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,158

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    12/5-6/03 is one of the most underrated busts ever. The first part of the storm overperformed for NYC because SNE cleared out overnight ahead of the cirrus shield and the NE flow affected much colder and drier down ahead of the WAA precip than expected. Instead of the 38/35 that was expected it was 38/28. Then the second part of the storm that was supposed to be the main show was disjointed and produced virtually nothing
  2. SnowGoose69
    1-4-03 I vaguely remember as being a small event that had a mega gradient. NYC was all rain and 33 yet places like BDR/HPN/HVN snowed all day and had like 4-6 inches I think. It was somewhat like a 12/9/95 or 12/9/05
  3. SnowGoose69
    Usually when there’s blocking the tracks change less at day 3-4 but they still change. This whole evolution is going on early enough I think we might see things tick north in the next 24 hours for a few cycles then go back south again close to today’s ideas. I’m not sure this can really slide much more south
  4. SnowGoose69
    It probably has 33 at the surface or something which in that setup probably wouldn’t happen
  5. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET and CMC basically look like March 2001 gradient as someone pointed out in the SNE thread or even 4/1/97 minus the bigger amounts in EPA and WNJ
  6. SnowGoose69
    That is such a rare sort of gradient to see. I’ve seen many smaller storms have gradients like that but the big ones usually end up 100 miles north or south if they have amounts that major. There’s no way NYC is seeing 3-4 inches in that setup. They’d probably see 0 or it ends up 100 south and they get 12
  7. SnowGoose69
    Probably seeing these trends occur too early. This will probably end up bouncing back north once we get closer in
  8. SnowGoose69
    I think most of that precip the NAM shows after 75 is probably sleet. If we see any major snow it’s likely once the low gets going offshore. I think the initial bout of WAA is sleet or rain
  9. SnowGoose69
    2/8/13 was pretty bad. That setup probably couldn’t have worked if it occurred 4-5 weeks earlier. It was just late enough in the season that it didn’t kick too far right. It was fairly close to April 1982
  10. SnowGoose69
    It was exceptionally awful last winter tending to be too flat/cold but that doesn’t mean it’ll be the case this year
  11. SnowGoose69
    The NAM at 84 is only a tad drier than the GFS
  12. SnowGoose69
    The CFS is exponentially more accurate at day 25 than day 30. So if you’re looking at a forecast for 12/25 today it’s likely to be more accurate by a wide margin on 11/30 than today. I’ve seen cases where it flips 6-10 degrees on a 25 day forecast vs what it showed 4 days prior
  13. SnowGoose69
    It’s probably BS though. As a couple of those Twitter Mets have been saying (minus HM who has been very much on the cold train). Those recent flips back to a better pattern post day 10 on the EPS are likely not accurate if the MJO goes into 3-4-5 though if it’s a muted wave and the AO/NAO are negative perhaps it won’t be a shutout pattern
  14. SnowGoose69
    If the MJO goes into 3-4 though I’m not sure the pattern will be that good. Even if we do see the AO/NAO return negative
  15. SnowGoose69
    The whole setup is sort of similar to 12/19/95. That system didn’t track southeast, hence much higher amounts than this would produce but it was a product of a well timed blocked in an otherwise ugly pattern with marginal temps ahead of it
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I can’t think of anything that did that either. That’s why I think over time we could see this thing just look more weak and strung out.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The AO has a better correlation in December than the NAO but we did have one fairly -AO December recently (maybe 2012) where for several reasons we ended up torching despite the -AO
  18. SnowGoose69
    Even prior to today’s charts showing that spike with the apparent immediate drop back down HM has been saying for about a week on Twitter he felt the AO rise was going to be brief and then go right back to negative. Today’s ensembles start showing that idea but still too far out to know
  19. SnowGoose69
    Those forecasts could easily flip back. I don’t trust those things beyond 7 days
  20. SnowGoose69
    Eventually this winter pattern has to end. This would be what? 7-8 years in a row of this now. Figure we are due either this winter or next to see it switch to something else
  21. SnowGoose69
    Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time. Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild. 1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.
  22. SnowGoose69
    The projections i have seen are 2023-2029 being the window. I think somewhere closer to 2023 is more likely.
  23. SnowGoose69
    It could be some sort of cold AMO connection too. Most of the below 0 days occurred during that so likely has at least some impact on it
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah when I went back and looked at the surface maps post 1910 of all the below zero nights I think all of them minus that insane 1917 outbreak had strong winds. The difference is for some reason there were more instances of highs/arctic outbreaks entering the US east of 80-85W back then where as now we rarely if ever see that and when we do often times the trajectory will be too E-SE so the core of the cold air goes over New England and not here.
  25. SnowGoose69
    I could see it being like a December 02 maybe...not necessarily snow wise but temp wise that at least is respectable and averages near normal. I don't think we will see a torch pattern or SE ridge though some forecasts have inexplicably (in my mind anyway) gone with a pronounced SER in December
×
×
  • Create New...