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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Real close. NAM for LGA shows about 37/30 37/29 when precip arrives. I still think its just a hair too warm. Would need to see those DPs be more in the lower 20s. There is no question the arrival time of the event mid to late morning which allows for clear skies the night before and prevention of any heating during the ensuing day helps
  2. SnowGoose69
    I think he’s just saying the system would track more tucked with a weaker PNA. The ICON verbatim would probably still be 5-10 inches of snow for anyone north of Sandy Hook and west of Islip before they changeover over but the ICON of course doesn’t resolve the cold air correctly and has like 1 hour of snow. This event barring some sort of massive change in several parameters even if it flips to liquid will probably be in the category of a January 87 March 93 February 2014 in regards to how much snow you see before a flip
  3. SnowGoose69
    The event seems to have transitioned from almost an anafrontal feature to a full surface low setup which might provide better rates and lifting but it’s still very marginal for NYC. Seeing both NAM/GFS showing spreads of 40/29 or so before precip commences just isn’t really that good. Seems like it might be snow but that It’ll be 35/34 the entire event. This is an event where snow maps will badly fail
  4. SnowGoose69
    Given the air mass in place and the setup this thing can basically track just east of Montauk and the only places that would mix would be the Islands and maybe parts of the Cape
  5. SnowGoose69
    CMC whiffs. Basically only model so far at 00z to go flatter
  6. SnowGoose69
    CMC was only model to go flatter for Monday lol
  7. SnowGoose69
    My guess is the GFS doesn’t budge on Monday (it’s a classic type event where the GFS is a holdout til the last minute) and it ends up fairly similar to prior runs for Wednesday less amped than the Euro
  8. SnowGoose69
    It just erodes the CAD signature over places like EWR in 2 hours which wouldn’t happen
  9. SnowGoose69
    The icon finds a way to erode a CAD signature in 2 hours with the Wednesday event. Even if the track happened you’d snow for longer than that
  10. SnowGoose69
    The icon basically finds a way to make the warmest solution overall from DC to NYC given the pattern. You couldn’t duplicate that in real life if you tried with the surface and upper features where they are
  11. SnowGoose69
    Not just that it basically finds a way to make the rainiest or warmest solution possible given the pattern. It’s sort of funny.
  12. SnowGoose69
    I meant the Monday event not the Wednesday one. W
  13. SnowGoose69
    This feels like the first time in 5 years where at this range the other models moved towards an amped Euro solution vs the Euro caving. It seems anytime since 2015 the Euro was outlier amped at 72-90 it was wrong
  14. SnowGoose69
    Icon NW too. This has to be the first time in ages where inside 90 the Euro ended up not being too amped and other models moved towards it vs the other way around
  15. SnowGoose69
    The air mass just isn’t that good. It’ll be a very narrow corridor who gets hit with decent amounts Monday. If the air mass was even 3-4 degrees cooler in the 850-1000mb layer this would pretty much be a snow event across the board
  16. SnowGoose69
    The November 2018 event was what we call the due north overrunner when we did storm analysis. I don’t know how they performed for you guys but for the NYC metro any event that comes up straight from the south with a high center near PWM ends up much snowier than expected because you get banding features and the cold air holds longer. 12/14/03 2/13/14 and 1/22/87 are other examples. 87 was more a classic Miller but the track was almost on a 180-360 angle up the coast. There is absolutely a difference in isentropic glide features when it’s coming from that direction vs 220-040
  17. SnowGoose69
    It’s unlikely. The only way this probably could occur is if somehow the main shortwave responsible for the Wednesday event is being grossly overestimated by guidance. Otherwise the Monday event being big seems to translate strongly in most ensembles as PSU saw to being a good indicator for Wednesday
  18. SnowGoose69
    You want the Monday event to be more amped. Even if it’s rain in most of the area. PSU in the MA forum went through ensembles on the GFS and Euro and found almost unanimously the members that are amped Monday have the best solutions for Wednesday. The only place which probably doesn’t want Monday to be amped are places like interior SNE such as Worcester
  19. SnowGoose69
    The SREFs at 21Z (if anyone uses them anymore) are quite a bit wetter than 15Z
  20. SnowGoose69
    Taken literally about 2.2 at LGA but the BL is marginal this is an event that you’d have to be in the perfect spot for accumulating snow. Monday will have a very small axis where the snow accumulates. Especially if if only ends up far enough NW for the immediate coast
  21. SnowGoose69
    The ICON at 18Z moved NW. I still think this is coming west. Maybe not to the degree the Op Euro was though
  22. SnowGoose69
    I have noticed the last 2-3 model cycles that no matter what model you use if it is more NW with wave one its been more classic for the coast and organized with wave 2. The weaker wave 1 runs have tended to be uglier with wave 2, more disjointed etc. There may be no correlation given the sample size is small but its been obvious mostly in the Euro which by far has been the most amped model for Monday.
  23. SnowGoose69
    I didnt see it yet but the EPS will be confusing if people don't break out the Monday event. I wouldn't look at total QPF or snow amounts for a period. You have to look at each storm individually or on the surface/H5 panels or you'll be seeing totals for both events if you do 5-7 day total QPF
  24. SnowGoose69
    The weak or "fake phase" with more of a self amplification has some similarities to 12/09 and 2/83. I mentioned earlier that it showed similarities to 12/19/09 2/4/95 and 2/13/14.
  25. SnowGoose69
    Its inside the Euro amped bias window now and its also not a very strong/"phased" system which the Op has tended to go too strong on recent years . Given the trends the last 5-6 winters with these sort of systems I think the Euro may be correct on this one being NW
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