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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The temps are so marginal and the band likely won't be as expansive as modeled so those totals will be limited to small areas. I would expect you'd see mostly 4-7 with isolated area over that
  2. SnowGoose69
    3K NAM now has BOS over to rain at 01z. My forecast of 4-5 will be very wrong if that is correct.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The good news for the snowhounds is that the 3km NAM was by far the best model today on ptype/changeover time. If it holds its idea for tomorrow the snow axis is definitely further east than the other guidance.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Winds flipping 070-080 now at JFK. that mini wedge is starting to be punched out. All await that T measurement from NYC now....it was about a half inch here
  5. SnowGoose69
    The temps at 10K tomorrow afternoon and evening are right at the threshold of what you want to get enough boundary layer cooling in and near the CCB behind a system. DT/Cranky often mention this that if you don't have -10C or less you won't consistently get snow or accumulations.
  6. SnowGoose69
    Problem is these things almost always end up slightly more NW than models indicate, rarely southeast.
  7. SnowGoose69
    The GFS started caving at 00Z for sure to everything else. Normally with these storms it starts going the party around 48-60
  8. SnowGoose69
    I’m sort of confused by that given the warm nose on the NAM is fairly significant
  9. SnowGoose69
    Yeah you’ll usually do well in NYC with a low in that spot when the system is close to stacked and closed. There’s always a rare instance where you can be skunked because of various factors (such as cold air supply as you mentioned earlier) but it’s hard not to at least get a few inches
  10. SnowGoose69
    And it seems the maturing of the surface and ULLs has trended a bit faster today. No question we saw on yesterday's runs that process was getting delayed which led to some of the dud model runs
  11. SnowGoose69
    This is really a bad storm for the GFS weaknesses. Cold air is marginal and its a fairly complicated evolution. Its no surprise the UKmet/Euro look different
  12. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is pretty unreliable beyond 36 from my experience.
  13. SnowGoose69
    I am going with a blend of the Euro/UK for now. GFS I always toss til inside 24-30 on these events. NAM cannot be trusted til it shows the same scenario 2-3 consecutive runs. When the NAM consistently shows something big its usually right. Any jumping back and forth and you can typically toss it
  14. SnowGoose69
    The one change today is the models seem to be starting to mature the low faster again offshore. They slowed that process somewhat yesterday which led to lower amounts
  15. SnowGoose69
    The NAM seems the slowest of all the models. The Euro by my interpolation had precip into NYC by 14-1430Z
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah assuming no massive 00Z shift my guess is at 4am they issue a WWA for monday afternoon and evening for 2-4 or something. I'm not sure they won't issue one for tomorrow too from 10am-2pm just because its first event of year but technically the event tomorrow falls short of criteria
  17. SnowGoose69
    The Euro signature producing the snow over NYC and N-NW of there almost looks like a norlun trof
  18. SnowGoose69
    I'm not so sure because if the system develops slower/closes off slower there would be no CCB or heavy snow on the NW side anyway.
  19. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I believe its just the fact that many model runs of the various suites have had the low about 50-80 miles ESE of NYC. In that setup in a closed off system the heavy snow band will sit about 70-90 miles W of the low
  20. SnowGoose69
    Its too warm on the thermals. I think based on the H5 and surface lows there would be more snow into NJ than that.
  21. SnowGoose69
    I still doubt its anything but PL near the city. The NAM warm nose is big. Still nervous for Monday. Don't like the closed low sitting out there but I doubt we have any resolution on that til tomorrow's runs
  22. SnowGoose69
    I thihk for sure someone will fluke their way to big snow totals here similar to 12/25/02 where a very small deformation zone setup that hit NYC and western LI but if you went down to even southern Staten Island or central or eastern LI they saw almost nothing
  23. SnowGoose69
    I think the AO might be overrated here because it’s in the process of flipping. It’s common to see big snows here often times when the AO or NAO are switching phases. I still think we won’t know anything for another 24 hours for Monday because where exactly these bands of snow setup and how fast the system closes won’t be nailed down.
  24. SnowGoose69
    Very good inside 36. I will probably use that entirely to determine ptype for the Sunday morning stuff
  25. SnowGoose69
    It seems with most major systems that whatever the trend is around this time period it reverses and goes the other way the final 24-48 hours before
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