SnowGoose69

Ticked about 15-20 miles north with the snow

There simply isn’t enough East gradient with this event to get areas just inland warm enough. We basically have winds going 060-070 tonight at 5-10kts. That works for the coast but might not even work for a place like EWR

Depending how heavy this initial shot comes in it’s possible there could be a surprising 2-3 hour period of snow in the area. If it’s not heavy I’m not sure it’ll overcome the possible mid level warming

Well many here would lock in the 00Z HRRR from 00-06z tomorrow night from NYC north. Unfortunately its never right that far out

The temp issue does not surprise me. The GFS is getting worse over time it seems with low level cold. The evolution of the setup is probably too complicated as well. Models tend to struggle in these setups where you've got a dying wave of WAA precip as we do here then almost an entirely new system taking over. They usually end up massively blowing some aspect of it. This is why the belt from NYC to where you are is so tough tomorrow because they could bust both on the initial WAA area not dying as fast as expected and then the 2nd round being earlier/colder

It is night and day expansive with QPF from 00-06Z vs the 12Z run. the 12Z run had zilch from 00-06Z for HPN. This run looks to have .25-.30. At 850 it was also a shade cooler and not as far north on the warming from 00-06Z. I don't see what is doing at 750-825 though so it could be mostly sleet

18Z Euro tried throwing a bone to the areas from NYC just north tomorrow evening with more snow or sleet.

One thing I am marginally afraid of tomorrow from about NYC-SW CT is that there could be an earlier surge in the 21-00Z window of precipitation that is unforecast by all models right now. If that happened places like HPN/BDR could see a surprise several inches of snow

The scary thing is in 5 years the GFS will be the only US Model with the NAM being discontinued by then

The funky IVT snow event was missed by all the models but the Euro up til the day of the event was the best and probably still did best that day out of all the models

3-4 days ago I could see that because I felt there would be a strong massive WAA push but the system just dampens too much as it exits the Oh Valley leading to that initial slug of moisture dying out. I'm not sure why JB still felt that good yesterday

Yeah honestly the Euro has been great so far. It nailed all 3 events. If you looked at the snow maps then it seems like it has been bad but its by far led the way with this event the entire way.

Its mostly got 2-4 north of 287. It ticked north. The EPS seems slightly south of the Op showing about 2.5 N shore of LI to Bronx/Northern NYC. Likely some sleet in those totals though

The UKIE doesn’t look much different than the Euro has

That initial push is dead it appears on most guidance now. I don’t even think it’ll produce much for SPA or SW NJ as some models show because the trend has been to kill it earlier and earlier. The Metro needs the main slug from the south to be earlier than currently expected. The RGEM gets it in by 20-21Z or so and as a result north side a of metro see about 2-2.5 of snow with it. The Euro doesn’t get it here til 01-02Z and by then it’s too late. And the NAM is late and paltry.

Its remarkable how similar through the 06z runs the RGEM and Euro are on evolution through tomorrow night. Even the GFS is close to them. The NAM continues to be way different

UKMET also south

RGEM is south too. This is still a pain of an event to forecast because if that initial WAA “finger” goes south this event will likely be mostly PL or FZRA

00Z NAM MOS guidance never turns winds east of 050 for LGA. They won’t get above freezing with that. And generally the winds will verify 010-020 north of guidance on these events

The NAM has long has a south bias with these systems. It’s not as bad as it once was but I’m not sure I’ve seen an SWFE where the NAM beyond 48 didn’t verify too far south

This should bounce back some starting tomorrow. This is unusually far S for an SWFE at the moment. If not for the crappy organization we would be pounded verbatim down here with this but by the time it organizes it’ll be mostly a CT event

Seems like it may have gotten a bit wetter too. Not necessarily here but the QPF signal seemed more Euro like and consistent this run

The EPS almost looks as if it’s south of the Op but it’s hard to tell on what I’m seeing

It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do

The ICON resembles the Euro more than any other model than the UKMET. That is somewhat sad.