SnowGoose69

I'm sure people here know better than me but I want to say GA commonly snows with thicknesses over 540

Almost has ATL in rain now. Its definitely been coming north with time

I can’t tell really on the 12Z RGEM but it appears to be not as amped as the 18z NAM in your area either. The ukmet is darn close though. 850 is like -0.4C in ATL the entire event

It sucks not having the RGEM because it can really let you know if the NAM is out to lunch or not

Be real careful with the warm ground deal. I find that doesn’t work often. If you’ve got a December sun angle and you snow even one half inch per hour the warm ground deal doesn’t often hold up. Many places jn GA have been in the 40s now for 36 hours plus. I always bring up Albany NY being 85 degrees and then seeing 15 inches of snow the next day

The GFS didn’t see the warm nose in that storm. Unfortunately the nws and many forecasters bought into it partially and kept snow totals too high when it was evident the event was likely going to be mostly FZRA

I would be shocked if ATL got anything big from this. It’s possible but making a forecast here you really have to go just up to 2 inches on cold surfaces. This isn’t a closed low or dynamic system where intense rates are likely and it’s occurring at a bad time of day for accumulation. One factor I think that is killing this for ATL is what I call “early wet bulbing” where you get precip too early before dry air really works in and when you finally do start going to all snow you don’t have the potential you would have had if you stayed dry. If for whatever reason the precip from 23-07Z stays south of ATL and they can get to 23-24-25 on dewpointa this even becomes much more dangerous for them

That event had a lousier cold air supply and was more dynamic forcing mild air into the 750-900 layer

The Euro wasn’t similar to the GFS in AL/GA/MS really. More for areas north. The Euro had 4-5 inches of snow in ATL while the GFS had none

It was much wetter overall than the NAM

And the 18Z NavGEM looks more west than the 12. At least we know some models, even if it’s the bad ones aren’t giving in

Through late Friday afternoon it appeared like it was going to possibly came way west but then thereafter that it appeared to be flatter and more east. It was definitely more west for AL/GA on the precip but areas further up the MA region it was more east and drier

The new SREF definitely sort of hints what the Euro showed. Things looked better thru 54-57 then it wasn’t as good as the previous run after that especially more north

The Op Euro since the upgrade 2 winters ago in systems that aren’t overly strong at the surface has tended to have a flat bias. I think the ensembles are definitely going to be more north and west. The Euro also tends to make slow adjustments. Sometimes if models are catching onto the setup late the Euro can still be making adjustments inside 12-18 hours

Many cases where the low is above 995-998mb it’s happened

The last few years when the NavGem has been this far north and west at this range it’s rarely not led to the flatter models coming further west

It’s hard to know without details but the UKMET I’m guessing wouldn’t even be snow in ATL. That’s probably the more classic BHM-RMG-CHA snow track

These types of systems are probably the most favorable for that region because they do not tend to move NW as much with time because they don’t have the deep surface low. I’ve seen plenty end of destroying MCN though and missing ATL

The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48

Climatologically wise that is not the worst idea. I always tell people, do not forecast near record or record amounts unless model agreement is high.

Xiamen gusting to 80mph and their wind is offshore which means the center passed northeast of them. You'd have to think places just east of center gusting to 100-110. Satellite appearance I think this is a 95-100mph storm, not 125 as JTWC has

The RGEM had been dreadfully slow since its upgrade last year with most events. Using the NAM though which also tends slow I would say anyone from about central northern NJ east sees nothing before 10pm other than spotty light rain here or there.

The school factor is not too big, that tends to be more significant based on the location of where the job you're applying for is who where the boss or bosses went to school. If you're applying for a job in California and went to San Jose State you may be at a big advantage vs. the guy who went to Penn State...the opposite might be true for East Coast jobs. I've long said East Coast schools or ones like Wisconsin/OU in the middle of the nation may be the grads with edges because the vast majority of jobs in meteorology tend to seem to be east of the Mississippi outside of Boulder CO/Norman OK.

IMO the U.S. National Weather Service needs to adopt similar training programs to which many other National Weather Services around the world have including the Canadian, UK Met Office, and BoM have whereby all incoming forecasters I think are subject to an 8-12 month course which teaches forecasting...too many incoming Mets have next to no experience and the only reason that the forecasts that do get put out in this country are superior to those around the world is that we have the best forecasting models by a large margin as well as a massive upper air network.

The other issue to remember is that often times, even in the case of an intern the MIC is trying to fill a focal point hole. If the last intern or perhaps one of the journeyman who just left was the webmaster for the office page he or she is going to be looking for qualified interns with strong HTML/programming abilities to replace this slot assuming the office does not have someone else already on staff readily able to take over the role. Same goes if they recently lost someone who was responsible for the outreach or hydrology sectors, they would try to find a candidate with some public presentation/media or hydrological experience respectively...its not always there but if it is that said candidate will have a significant edge over the others.