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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    It is night and day expansive with QPF from 00-06Z vs the 12Z run. the 12Z run had zilch from 00-06Z for HPN. This run looks to have .25-.30. At 850 it was also a shade cooler and not as far north on the warming from 00-06Z. I don't see what is doing at 750-825 though so it could be mostly sleet
  2. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro tried throwing a bone to the areas from NYC just north tomorrow evening with more snow or sleet.
  3. SnowGoose69
    One thing I am marginally afraid of tomorrow from about NYC-SW CT is that there could be an earlier surge in the 21-00Z window of precipitation that is unforecast by all models right now. If that happened places like HPN/BDR could see a surprise several inches of snow
  4. SnowGoose69
    The scary thing is in 5 years the GFS will be the only US Model with the NAM being discontinued by then
  5. SnowGoose69
    The funky IVT snow event was missed by all the models but the Euro up til the day of the event was the best and probably still did best that day out of all the models
  6. SnowGoose69
    3-4 days ago I could see that because I felt there would be a strong massive WAA push but the system just dampens too much as it exits the Oh Valley leading to that initial slug of moisture dying out. I'm not sure why JB still felt that good yesterday
  7. SnowGoose69
    Yeah honestly the Euro has been great so far. It nailed all 3 events. If you looked at the snow maps then it seems like it has been bad but its by far led the way with this event the entire way.
  8. SnowGoose69
    Its mostly got 2-4 north of 287. It ticked north. The EPS seems slightly south of the Op showing about 2.5 N shore of LI to Bronx/Northern NYC. Likely some sleet in those totals though
  9. SnowGoose69
    The UKIE doesn’t look much different than the Euro has
  10. SnowGoose69
    That initial push is dead it appears on most guidance now. I don’t even think it’ll produce much for SPA or SW NJ as some models show because the trend has been to kill it earlier and earlier. The Metro needs the main slug from the south to be earlier than currently expected. The RGEM gets it in by 20-21Z or so and as a result north side a of metro see about 2-2.5 of snow with it. The Euro doesn’t get it here til 01-02Z and by then it’s too late. And the NAM is late and paltry.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its remarkable how similar through the 06z runs the RGEM and Euro are on evolution through tomorrow night. Even the GFS is close to them. The NAM continues to be way different
  12. SnowGoose69
    UKMET also south
  13. SnowGoose69
    RGEM is south too. This is still a pain of an event to forecast because if that initial WAA “finger” goes south this event will likely be mostly PL or FZRA
  14. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM MOS guidance never turns winds east of 050 for LGA. They won’t get above freezing with that. And generally the winds will verify 010-020 north of guidance on these events
  15. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has long has a south bias with these systems. It’s not as bad as it once was but I’m not sure I’ve seen an SWFE where the NAM beyond 48 didn’t verify too far south
  16. SnowGoose69
    This should bounce back some starting tomorrow. This is unusually far S for an SWFE at the moment. If not for the crappy organization we would be pounded verbatim down here with this but by the time it organizes it’ll be mostly a CT event
  17. SnowGoose69
    Seems like it may have gotten a bit wetter too. Not necessarily here but the QPF signal seemed more Euro like and consistent this run
  18. SnowGoose69
    The EPS almost looks as if it’s south of the Op but it’s hard to tell on what I’m seeing
  19. SnowGoose69
    It actually resembles the UKMet/Euro right now more than the GFS/NAM do
  20. SnowGoose69
    The ICON resembles the Euro more than any other model than the UKMET. That is somewhat sad.
  21. SnowGoose69
    And rain for some reason. Just not seeing that happen though it has snow all day in NJ
  22. SnowGoose69
    QPF wise the 12Z Euro looked good but the mid level WAA looked early. LGA changes to PL by 23Z and gets maybe 1-2 inches before
  23. SnowGoose69
    UKMET looks similar to Euro in the large incremental time maps. It seems flatter but the UKMET has been a tad too flat with these beyond 36 the last 2 winters
  24. SnowGoose69
    If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out
  25. SnowGoose69
    The LOL GFS thinks this is all rain for the coast.
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