SnowGoose69

You don’t get many outbreaks in KS/OK/TX where you see like 50 plus tornadoes. It’s more common to see violent tornadoes though vs outbreaks with high numbers. Those are more frequent to the east as those maps show as well as further north in the Plains

The western ridge/East trof pattern is a disaster for the Plains severe weather season. There are some signs the pattern may shift 5/5-5/10 but by that point many areas of TX/OK are nearing the slowing point of their season which ends around 6/1 usually

33 is actually the record for NYC that morning. would have expected it to be lower

November 2002 crossed my mind as a mostly night event if I’m placing it correctly but I think that was evening and late evening and of course night is longer in November

I believe the ATL tornado by the time the warning was issued it was on the ground already and might have even lifted. The power outages suggest it was on ground 225-232 or so and warning came 233-234. Those are very difficult to warn on though. Those quick spin ups often are on ground by time warning comes

Its also about 45 minutes too slow. I think this line may be in ATL by 0430-0500Z. The 3km NAM is laughably slow. The HRRR is closest but even its too far west now with activity in NRN AL

That was more or less a clear air bust wasn’t it? My memory is there was a massive burst of AM convection that killed instability but even though it totally cleared out for hours after nothing ever happened

There’s numerous ways this could enhance the COVID issue. It could force the stores to be obliterated again if everyone’s food spoils, it could force people to move into friends or family’s homes if they lose power, and power crews could accelerate the virus spread by working together

Even the last 2 weeks when we’ve had these trofs and cold pushes the source region of the air hasn’t been great so despite it looking cold if you just glanced at the upper air pattern or thicknesses when you looked at the 850s it wasn’t really a very cold air mass

It was a Dec 1992 repeat more or less. The gradient was just that strong. I’m not sure we effectively mixed down max winds from aloft in that scenario given time of year and direction of wind. This event like that one the strongest winds should be near the coast but the high gusts will probably be more sporadic depending how effectively they mix down. This event is more similar to an 11/11/95 or 10/14/03. Both of those setups were different in regards to proximity of the surface lows/upper trof but they both had crazy 850 S’ly winds with areas gusting 50-70. The 2003 event was somewhat short duration though. This will be a good 6-12 hours

There has been so many events where wildfire smoke was involved it’s hard to really come to any conclusion. The May 3 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma had widespread smoke from Mexico fires

The majority of the states/areas of those states where you’d chase this early in the season don’t really have severe enough outbreaks that anyone would really care. It’s probably not smart though to travel in groups of 7 in vans

The overnight threat I think may be getting missed somewhat. For AL in particular but I think even GA might see a violent squall line overnight. I don’t see much argument for this weakening as it crosses through. Especially since it appears GA could break out into sun for awhile Sunday afternoon which could destabilize things further

I find it funny that even in late March the models could not hold onto a colder change being shown. Ensembles were pretty solidly in agreement just 4-5 days back on this but they've slowly lost it or just showed it being transient. Even 97-98/01-02 had colder spring flips for a period but we could not manage that in 11-12 or this year it seems

I'm sure nobody cares but the setup Monday per the 12Z NAM is classic if you want decent snow here from this sort of event. The Euro not as much but the NAM has the classic high center near NB/Maine and the system coming up almost straight from the south.

The EPS might be wrong on the MJO but believe me it isn’t THAT wrong!!! I could see us going longer in 7 and maybe edging into 8 before going nil and re-emerging to 6 but that CFS forecast isn’t going to verify

I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future

Oh yes that I knew. The one you mentioned though from 91-92 is the one I can’t recall the day but distinctly remember it busting.

I can’t recall what day it was but I vaguely remember this one. I want to say it was a Friday afternoon or evening in February or March and have no recollection of why it busted. We were supposed to get a decent amount up here too

I’m surprised 96-97 isn’t in there. I seem to recall some sort of massive central Pac ridge that screwed us but maybe it was further north. It may have been an Aleutian/Bering block which can be bad too

Yup. I bought the first new car of my life in June of 2018 (sonata) and because I had no loan history at all at nearly age 40 and only one credit card I got a lousy 5.8% loan rate. To make it more shocking I payed 50% in cash too so my loan was for a lousy 14,500 and 2 banks despite a credit score of 740-750 straight up turned me down due to lack of history. People often ask me why did you not just pay the whole car off then? I said because I wanted to get some sort of history on my record before buying a house. I payed the loan off a few months ago in one shot. My credit score is now 812. Meanwhile the 2018 Sonata has had some issues for sure. A couple of times it has not immediately started in cold weather and I've had to hit the button 4-5 times. Some folks in the Plains/Midwest last winter could not get them started at all and had to have the solenoid assemblies replaced. Oddly enough it was never recalled to this day.

My first thought when I read this was 12/4/91 or the 1/16/92 bust but this one I don't remember.

The 12/26/93 storm was miserably and I mean miserably handled by NOAA/local mets etc. They completely abandoned ship off a slight shift east in the 12Z guidance that morning despite the fact by noon the radar along the DE/MD coast was clearly west of the 12Z models. I think all warnings outside Suffolk got dropped and by 3-4pm it was obvious the snow was coming straight up the coast. They ended up having to put advisories back up by 7-8pm.

That was dangerously close to being a catastrophe of a bust. The system started sliding more east than expected and nearly ending up missing a good part of the area. I remember that evening around 6pm sitting at home thinking this is really going to bust isn’t it? It ultimately slid far enough east that most of northern Jersey didn’t see major snows

The 5 boroughs of NYC were never under a winter storm watch one time from March 1996 til 12/29/00. That shows you how pathetic things were in regards to winter storms in that period. January 2000 because the storm snuck up on us at the last second they went straight from nothing to a winter storm warning otherwise the streak would have been 11 months shorter