SnowGoose69

Jeez the EPS got the anti Bermuda effect on this run. Often when we have a true coastal we see cases where several members skew the mean because they’re practically in Puerto Rico. This run is the reverse, a few members visiting the Fridge’s digs in Chicago skewed the living crap out of it

Good news is inland areas probably finally get something with the first wave. Coast continues to be a question mark. A lot depends upon obviously exact track, how fast it moves in, how much the high is able to anchor the gradient more ENE or E vs SE-S as it departs the east. I do think ptype panels as of now on most models are too wet near the coast. Particularly for NYC, Queens, Bronx.

The Op had a pattern where you’d never see all snow. The trof basically covers 85% of the country with a WAR nearby so pretty much any system is going to cut

You probably would rather see this adjustment now than 48-60 hours from now. I don’t trust any trends in the ensembles or Ops til inside 108. This is still way too far out

It could still happen. Especially if the lead wave is stronger on Friday. That disturbance will have an impact on the big storm in two ways. Possibly acting as a 50/50 odd the Canada coast and also by just impacting where the height/thermal gradient is setup after it traverses the area

It was definitely snowier for the coast than the Op was

HM posted on twitter yesterday that he thought a Midwest storm might occur around the 25th. I’m not sure if his reasoning had anything to do with the MJO though

I’m becoming more confident Friday may be snow. The high is wedging in enough on many of today’s ensembles and the flow is weak off the water. It’s also mid January now the water isn’t 60 degrees anymore. I think maybe eastern LI would rain but probably most places snow if that track holds but we are still relatively far out

I just posted in the SNE thread too that since we are headed out of the roaring Pacific jet and into a slower moving more El Niño like pattern the GFS is likely going to begin getting schooled by the Euro

Now that we are headed into more of a classic El Niño pattern with a less disruptive pacific jet the GFS suckage will likely rise over the next month

Overall the forecasts in the 93-94 winter weren’t too bad. The first three events busted and the worst part is forecasts had it right in 2 of the 3 at 48-72 hours out and bailed late and got burn. The winter storm watches were dropped for 12/29 only to have to be reissued when the storm tracked way closer. I remember seeing the radar at 2-3pm in south jersey and thinking why did we drop those watches again? 12/11/93 the forecasts were for snow Saturday morning but 12Z guidance came in Friday backed off and most of the headlines were dropped

It’s generally better in a snow starved season to put your eggs into the basket of the system that’s closer to possibly happening. Remember too that system can help or hurt the ensuing big dog depending upon its strength and what it does when it gets off the Maritimes. That system being stronger likely helps the weekend one. If it doesn’t happen or is poo in regards to strength the next system might be more likely to track too far inland

NYC and western LI did well in December 93 because of two fluke events that missed a good portion of the remainder of the area. I think Central Park had 9-10 inches that month. 12/11/93 mostly delivered snow from EWR-FRG. The late December snow event only really hit coastal areas.

I figured they’d complain the first system at 108 hits southern areas better than it does them.

No. It’ll change for sure. But we are headed into more of a classic Niño pattern here and the tendency during those is for less model volatility since usually you have less of a pacific jet messing things up and the Euro tends to perform better during El Niño as well

I figured the northern crew would Bitch the SWFE mostly tracks south of them LOL. The western energy/trof is usually key for southern areas in SNE and NYC to stay frozen in a SWFE. If there is any ridging or zonal flow from SEA-GTF the system typically overdigs and tracks too far north

Well hopefully the Euro is right. Not only the big storm but on the system prior it to it as well. That is about the most perfect setup for a SWFE imaginable if you’re in southern portions of SNE or south.

That SWFE on the Euro at 108 is about as perfect as it gets for NYC on a SWFE. Energy into the west which prevents the SWFE from being able to amplify too much and vortex far enough south in Canada it can’t track north. Only need to hold it for 4 1/2 more days

Yeah that’s it. It started as snow/sleet Thursday evening and was expected to go to rain by late night or Friday morning at worst. All the 00Z runs came in much colder though and by 4am the NWS pretty much went all frozen for the entire area’s for the duration of the event. It was a good call because outside of 12am-2am Saturday morning where parts of LI briefly got to 33 it never went above 32 anywhere

The Op GFS looks out to lunch on the 17th being suppressed. Unfortunately all the 12Z models and ensembles that are out so far now show Great Lakes low interference on that event so it may be headed into the trash bin as far as being a snow producer. The 20th might be the only shot right now

It’s so hard to see how anyone but NNE snows in that setup. Sleet or freezing rain maybe but the high is just located way too far north. That’s a disaster PL/ZR event all the way

I was liking the first event on 1/17 of having a chance of putting down 2-4 but even if you ignore the GFS 12Z run suppressing it to the MA (the CMC didnt) both the GFS and CMC trended toward GL low interference on that event which would probably kill it as far as having snow potential

Oddly enough the Canadian seems to be seeing an ugly SE ridge trying to form days 8-10. You have to wonder if the models are starting to pick up on that MJO rearing it’s head again. The Euro has gotten somewhat stale on the cold too the last few runs

I LOL Gfs is now suppressing the first wave into the MA. You can’t make this stuff up

LOL Gfs is now suppressing the first wave into the MA. You can’t make this stuff up