SnowGoose69

Under ordinary circumstances we would likely be in one now but the NAO is preventing there from being a massive SE ridge. Also it’s somewhat crazy to keep this degree of blocking and -AO this far into a mod La Niña not to mention likely keep it through most of February. I think there are few cases if any where a mod to strong La Niña was able to keep the AO and NAO negative well through February

The models just are brutal this winter long term. Remember 2-3 weeks ago this period was going to be frigid and snowy. That failed. 7 days ago the 10-16 day ensembles showed there was gonna be a massive SE ridge in early February. The GEPS/EPS gave up on that idea several days back, the GEFS is now slowly bailing on it. Ultimately it seems the Niña pattern will never really take hold much like the El Niño one never did last year

The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case. The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is. It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now. Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump. That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT. That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE. I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup

The Euro still drags its feet ejecting shortwaves out of the southwest. It’s better than it used to be but still does it at times. Almost any time you see this model difference the Euro is too slow

I think what frustrates everyone is there just has to be a storm behind it to destroy the snowpack

Yeah exactly. I’m not sure it does. I think the we might mostly see the coastal impacts

One thing is for sure. I would rather be here than Boston and it’s rare I’ll say that 5 days out of a Miller B type setup. The fact everything this year has gone south from this range and the GFS has been too far north at this range probably means the end solution as far as northern/western extent would be at best the current middle ground of the GFS/Euro

I’m trying to figure out how this one can fail. This seems like your classic blocked up pattern storm that shows up a week out and other than fine details never really waivers a ton. It’s gonna be you’re usual screw job miller B type deal south of PHL probably. I guess the shortwave could end up dampening and washing out as it traverses the Midwest probably

I personally don’t feel the NAO is going anywhere this year. It might briefly do so in a week to 10 days but I think it’s going to mostly remain negative the rest of the winter. The shortening wave lengths coupled with changes probably happening over on the PAC side I think would create a window well into March possibly.

The Monday and Tuesday system has some sort of impact as usual. I don’t think it’s big but it might influence the big one enough to make a difference, especially in SNE. The lagging surface reflection that cuts across PA towards NYC Tuesday I think can eff stuff up possibly on the Thursday event. Might want that feature to wash out even though I think it could deliver a surprise snowfall to western parts of this sub forum

Well the UKMET at least has A STORM this run. It’s nowhere close but it’s better than it’s nonexistent storm at 00z

Historically these things usually end up with the GFS being wrong. I can count a handful of occasions where at this range the GFS and GEFS loved a storm and the Euro/EPS hated it where the GFS won. In a La Niña winter you do have to sometimes give the the GFS more credit. No question the NAM does resemble the GFS a bit more at 84 with the shortwave than the Euro

One thing I notice for sure is the NAM at 84 looks a heck of a lot more like the GFS and CMC with the shortwave out in the SW than it does the Euro. The CMC did come slightly southeast this run

I think a big reason is that it’s pretty rare historically to see that sort of combo in a mod Niña. Now this winter has acted more as a raging El Niño pattern wise than a mod Niña up until the recent shift of that ridge in the PAC which is more a Niña signal. I just feel that if we tried inserting a raging -AO/NAO combo into winters like 98-99 or 88-89 it still would have been mild. The PAC state just usually is too crappy to overcome

I’m not sold the amplitude is enough to matter. Also the GEPS and GEFS the last few runs are trying to show more of western ridge/eastern trof pattern after 2/4, the GEPS more so and both have shown the block moving a bit more northeast too

The Euro took a step towards the GFS/CMC but it still misses by quite a bit

I’m not sold we even see anything on that storm down here. I think that one won’t get much north of southern CT if that

Once again it seems the ensembles want to go ridgy in the west to some degree after 2/3. I wonder if it’s for real finally or the PAC jet will ruin it again

The NAM was pretty scary though at 84 if you’re in SNE or especially NYC. It’s flat as a pancake but basically on its own at this stage. The NAM almost always has a south bias though beyond 48 with any sort of event that resembles a SWFE. It’s been that way since it’s inception or switch over from the ETA

I believe shortening wavelength as we progress through Feb would make that link up less likely to occur but I'm not sure on that.

I think some snow may occur the next 10-14 days but the odds of something big are low. If it happens it'll be some type of February 94ish event probably. I don't think in this pattern we are going to get a classic KU or even a big coastal.

I'm beginning to think we need another 82-83/97-98/15-16 Nino to change this

I would not be surprised if this is just a repeat of the weeklies from the last 2 winters. They want to keep bringing in the ENSO pattern and it never will happen

Yes and no. Its had trouble resolving the blocking pattern and pattern shift about the same...it does not have ensembles so I could not see those but its Op runs were pretty regularly trying to crank southeast ridging and cutting storms 7-10 days ago and look where we are now. Its still occasionally trying to do it. Its best improvement is it has less of a near term cold bias it seems.

Its probably 2 weeks too fast with it. My hunch is this pattern will go til 2/1-2/5 before there is any chance of a flip