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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    EWR 1.3, NYC 1.0, LGA and JFK 0.1 so far
  2. SnowGoose69
    Looks like Central Park has an inch on the ground on the cameras...could be slightly more
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah we were just discussing that at work that it looks that way. I've thought for days it looked more like an IVT
  4. SnowGoose69
    Having access to 3 hour panels on 12Z Euro its verifying well through 18z then it loses grip with too much QPF across LI 18-21 and 21-00. I think the Euro idea is right with the snow axis more or less holding current location through 03Z then falling apart slowly thereafter. The LI QPF is likely feedback from convection offshore
  5. SnowGoose69
    The 06Z Euro 18-21Z radar matches the radar almost dead on right now
  6. SnowGoose69
    Their OCMs who make the forecasts are relatively good. I don't see too many crazy snow forecasts from them inside 48 hours. They are usually conservative
  7. SnowGoose69
    Streets in parts of NYC are getting slushy now. A key observation too is DPs have lowered to 30-32 in many spots. That shows you we have cold enough at mid levels to get the surface DPs and Ts to 32 or less
  8. SnowGoose69
    Euro seems like it has feedback issues to me like UKMET with convection off the coast. It puts too much precip over central and east LI in next 6 hours. Its 18-00Z QPF for LI makes no sense to me. It does match the 12KM NAM though for E NJ and the Metro with the idea there will be most of the accumulating snow 23-05Z
  9. SnowGoose69
    Columbus Circle cams show a solid half inch on benches/grass. CPK itself looks like less
  10. SnowGoose69
    12Km NAM now seems to be verifying best. If it holds NYC metro and east to WRN LI sees most of their snow 23-04z
  11. SnowGoose69
    UKMET is funky looking overall. I think the convection fooled it. the 18-00Z QPF is bizarre and mostly offshore
  12. SnowGoose69
    12KM NAM as far as the R/S line is closest as of 17Z but I do not buy its idea of big snows 00-06Z for LGA/NYC region as I think this thing is already giving way and weakening by then
  13. SnowGoose69
    It has about 3 for LGA based off the QPF
  14. SnowGoose69
    The 06Z Euro might be the closest to verifying right now. Its got the area off the coast and the semi dry slot between bands. It is underdone though over N NJ to some extent but is still probably verifying best
  15. SnowGoose69
    Its already wrong. Its 16-17Z depiction based on current radar does not have the showery look between CDW-FRG. I'm trying to find a high res model at the moment that seems to be handling this best. Overall the HRRR might be closest.
  16. SnowGoose69
    Upton might be planning changes. Their new TAFs for LGA JFK have mod snow now LGA NWS 021542 AMD KLGA 021541Z 0216/0318 FM021800 36014KT 3SM -SNRA BR OVC008 FM021900 36014G24KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 TEMPO 0221/0301 1/2SM SN FG OVC006 FM030100 35017G25KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR OVC008 FM030500 34018G27KT 6SM -SN BR OVC015 FM030900 32016G22KT P6SM BKN030 BKN050 FM031300 31015G21KT P6SM SCT030 BKN080
  17. SnowGoose69
    So far the models all seem to be too far to the east with everything based off the current observations so I'm still leaning mostly towards a miss in NYC
  18. SnowGoose69
    I don’t believe any model will get this extremely correct. When you look at the 06Z models and the latest HRRR all of them to some degree have the current setup wrong
  19. SnowGoose69
    Nothing high res at 06Z really showed that band there. I’m not sure if that’s a long duration feature or not. The area over NYC was shown on most models but it was further west than it currently is
  20. SnowGoose69
    Today Show was just outside and it looked like PLSNRA
  21. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET definitely came east with the core of the QPF over NYC
  22. SnowGoose69
    The HRDPS and RGEM vary a ton from winter to winter. They were awful last year. Today the RGEM was very good hitting the heavy totals from Albany to MA. The HRDPS not as much
  23. SnowGoose69
    Inside 24 its very good. Beyond that it typically isnt very consistent
  24. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad. It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here. The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall
  25. SnowGoose69
    I’m not sure how the hell they are 9 miles and light rain. The Ptype aside those DBZs should at least be producing 4-5 miles light rain
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