SnowGoose69

These things always end up west the last few years because of the tendency of any degree of ridging in the western Atlantic to be stronger than modeled, even at 24 hours you usually are good for a tick west

The RGEM was way too far west at 12Z and it tends to have an amped bias beyond 30-36 so I expected a tick SE over the course of the next few runs

You have to be wary here with their technically being a “WAR” right now. Anytime the last couple of years we have a system or boundary that we have concern could push too far off to the east that ridging is stronger than expected and we get a further west or more juiced system

There was some pretty nasty dry slotting from about NYC to Nassau for a time. Quite a few places there saw only 16-22 inches or so. I want to say BDR only reported 17-18. We’ve definitely had some oddball measurements over the years at the airports and NYC. That Newark measurement on 2/11/94 I think most agree was wrong. NYC’s measurement on 1/22/87 I had an NWS Met tell me 18-20 years ago they KNOW was wrong. Recently we obviously have some real awful ones but even before 2000 we saw occasional sloppy reporting

I’m not a big Bastardi “agreeer” but he’s probably right in this case. The Euro in events like this will tend to be too flat or dry. I’m definitely thinking more NAM/RGem is more likely. The NAM May have sucked at 12Z in regards to QPF but that was probably a blip as it still looked okay otherwise

The UKMET has .3-.4 liquid after 12Z Wednesday which would likely be all snow. Not sure how much of what it shows before that is snow

1998. That was more of a vort and weak surface low though as was the 2014 post Super Bowl event. 11/29/95 might be closer

UKMET at quick glance on poor maps seems like it could be significant but may be more for inland locations

Probably will be 6-7 to start and finish at around 10

It was similar. I want to say that one may have had a strong surface reflection develop on the front than we see with this one now. Someone on Twitter was comparing it to 2/2-2/3 1996. There is no comparison to that. That was an entrenched arctic air mass with a boundary that had stalled nearby and had multiple waves move along it

It seems there is rarely an issue with these events as far as getting snow. Either they end up all snow once the FROPA occurs or the wave never develops at all and it’s all rain. There’s always a scare in the few hours preceding it where places like SWF/HPN/FWN are like 34/24 and the city is still 42/34 but inevitably the cold air makes it in. I always find these things to be all similar like most SWFEs are. If they happen it’s generally a good 2-6 inch type event with only a small percentage of them falling below or above that range

I think the window for it to matter though is quickly closing. The analogs mostly suggest the pattern would likely become progressively favorable as we progress into January so if something bad doesn’t happen soon out there I’m not sure we would see more than just a brief 2 week period where the pattern is a shutout

The GFS if I remember right was showing big snow behind the low for days but it was mostly disregarded because the AVN/MRF merge had just occurred in recent weeks or months. I had been telling people I was concerned somewhat about a surprise snow that night but was not that confident it would happen.

2002 though NYC saw nothing and 1995 it was like 11/29 or 11/30. I think there’s definitely at least in a small sample size that if NYC sees measurable snow before 11/25 or so it has tended to not work out too well for the ensuing winter but much like the when August averages warmer in July the winter always torches for the area it’s only a sample of about 5-10 years

78 was forecast remarkably well for the time though the amounts weren’t. The LFM was the model which nailed it as it also did the 89 Thanksgiving storm which the other models mostly discounted. 78 was quickly setback though when the models blew the 1983 storm north of Philly. In fairness there wasn’t much computer advancement in those 5 years though. 1983 was somewhat of a benchmark though in that when the 00Z models ran that evening they shifted the entire storm well north and caught onto what was going on. At the time that was one of the first cases of the models ever doing that

The trof and the pattern appear too progressive to me for there to really be any legit chance we see something ride up that boundary but we are still far out

There were actually a decent number of months with a -NAO in the 80s and two full winters where it averaged negative in 83-84 and 84-85 but the tendency with the cold AMO was just for there not to be a large number of east coast storms

Hey these days that’s a blizzard for early December

At the time it was the first case ever of a major storm being modeled that far in advance. Once we got to 96-120 every model had it including the UKMET. Forecasting was still pretty bad in 1993. It improved significantly in the ensuing 3-5 years as a result of the Euro being more widely used as well as the ETA being worlds better than the LFM/NGM.

Unfortunately not a great pattern for big storms (in general) January 87 had a pattern like that but it’s not likely to see an all snow event there with that setup

Similar bust on part 1 to the December 2003 storm. Difference was part 1 of the 12/03 storm busted on temps while the first part of the January 2011 storm busted on QPF that no models saw. The 2nd part of that December 2003 storm though majorly disappointed. The mid levels sort of torched between part 1 and part 2 and the coastal wasn’t deep enough so snow growth was lousy and the CCB was spotty leading to two mega bands over ERN NJ near EWR and another near central LI. In between most places saw 3-5 inches, if that. The CCB in part 2 of January 2011 rivaled April 82/February 83. It was just insane snow rates and a gravity wave may have played a part too much like it did in February 83 and January 04

That was a SWFE though. It seems we can score in SWFEs in bad patterns. I mean nothing was worse than 12/27/84 and 12/28/90 and NYC saw 6 in both. If you time that disturbance ejecting right into the high over SE Canada you can get a big snow. The classic all snow events seem hard to get without the AO/NAO/PNA in our favor

The good news is the pattern looks respectable next 2 weeks. It’s not great and it’s not hopeless. The long range models keep wanting to pull the MJO through 3-4-5 but the standing wave is preventing it. Probably see another snow event this month

I think they’ll still get 6-8 tonight and tomorrow

I think all got various pieces right. At that range I think the Euro mostly was best. Today a combination of the Euro/12Km NAM/UKMET all got various aspects right. The Euro was perfect til 20Z then lost it. The UKMET and 12km NAM sort of saw the funky evolution of the bands south of LI and in coastal NE NJ from 21-00Z but didn’t really get them totally accurate. I think the bottom line is that this was largely an inverted trof today and while many sort of suspected it was it was difficult to tell if it was an IVT or an IVT TROWAL CCB hybrid event