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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I think the UKMET has a tendency to bias too far west at times with weaker coastal systems. It’s the real dynamic bombs it has progressive issues with oddly enough
  2. SnowGoose69
    Seeing the globals be west of the mesos overall is usually a suspicious thing. Often means globals are wrong from my experience and often happens with fast moving systems like this
  3. SnowGoose69
    03Z SREFs wetter again for Tues night. Euro did not make much of a move NW though it did come back from its 18Z run
  4. SnowGoose69
    03Z SREFs wetter again.
  5. SnowGoose69
    UKMET also came west for Tues night. Still a miss though except far eastern LI
  6. SnowGoose69
    UKMET west also
  7. SnowGoose69
    Its taking quite some time to reach the ground but someone might get a quick inch
  8. SnowGoose69
    If it ends up being a continuing trend this could be a decent event but we would continued ticks here for the next 36 hours.
  9. SnowGoose69
    RGEM at 48 looks fairly close to NAM idea.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The NAM got owned with this event. Euro seems to have had best handle on that 05-09Z window for a couple of days.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Not that it means much but the NAM got schooled tonight down here. We probably see a 3-4 hour period of light snow 06-09z and the NAM til this run wanted no part of it.
  12. SnowGoose69
    I expected the NW tick back but I'm still not sold we see anything much further with it.
  13. SnowGoose69
    It’s gonna come back NW I think but probably not enough outside of far eastern areas of Long Island and Mass
  14. SnowGoose69
    Flow is way too fast. Better chance this corrects back east I think
  15. SnowGoose69
    If you back 5-7 days ago and check the ECMWF MJO forecasts you can see why they are so unpredictable. The only thing it still appears to have the same is that it goes to 4-5 but how it gets there has become delayed and it goes through 3 now first. It just tells you anything beyond Day 7 on those forecasts is iffy.
  16. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately it’ll probably come down to the MJO from 1/20 or 1/25 onward. If it goes back through 4-5-6 this winter is done. If it stays quiet it could possibly be a big 6-8 week period
  17. SnowGoose69
    The pattern is pretty active which may prevent there being absurd warm anomalies this month, even for places in the SE US because as long as we keep getting systems ejecting out of that trof we are going to continue having FROPAs in the East. Even if they’re inducing modified Pac air it doesn’t seem at any point we see a sustained SER with bright sunshine for days on end
  18. SnowGoose69
    I’m beginning to wonder if we need a major La Niña or El Niño event to shuffle the pacific SSTS so that we don’t have this same issue with the MJO winter after winter for the foreseeable future
  19. SnowGoose69
    It develops the system way too late. The 500 track though isn’t bad
  20. SnowGoose69
    It basically is the same idea as the Euro. It just develops everything 18-30 hours later
  21. SnowGoose69
    TBH based off thickness alone I have no idea how all that precip after 81 isn’t snow everywhere. I wouldn’t get into temps this far out but in that sort of setup with a low that deep everyone west of it is snowing
  22. SnowGoose69
    Right as I was wondering to myself if Gary Bettman is okay. He really looked bad today
  23. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR just seems awful beyond 8 hours. Extending it to 60 seems nuts
  24. SnowGoose69
    I don’t know but it always had a severe west bias and when it didn’t for the January 2014 bust I knew we was in trouble
  25. SnowGoose69
    The scary thing is the intention by NCEP to basically NGM the NAM from here on out and do no further updates and then discontinue it when the GFS is considered good enough to be the only US model. My feeling is they’ll have to reconsider in 3-5 years when things aren’t going as planned
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