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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The GFS if I remember right was showing big snow behind the low for days but it was mostly disregarded because the AVN/MRF merge had just occurred in recent weeks or months. I had been telling people I was concerned somewhat about a surprise snow that night but was not that confident it would happen.
  2. SnowGoose69
    2002 though NYC saw nothing and 1995 it was like 11/29 or 11/30. I think there’s definitely at least in a small sample size that if NYC sees measurable snow before 11/25 or so it has tended to not work out too well for the ensuing winter but much like the when August averages warmer in July the winter always torches for the area it’s only a sample of about 5-10 years
  3. SnowGoose69
    78 was forecast remarkably well for the time though the amounts weren’t. The LFM was the model which nailed it as it also did the 89 Thanksgiving storm which the other models mostly discounted. 78 was quickly setback though when the models blew the 1983 storm north of Philly. In fairness there wasn’t much computer advancement in those 5 years though. 1983 was somewhat of a benchmark though in that when the 00Z models ran that evening they shifted the entire storm well north and caught onto what was going on. At the time that was one of the first cases of the models ever doing that
  4. SnowGoose69
    The trof and the pattern appear too progressive to me for there to really be any legit chance we see something ride up that boundary but we are still far out
  5. SnowGoose69
    There were actually a decent number of months with a -NAO in the 80s and two full winters where it averaged negative in 83-84 and 84-85 but the tendency with the cold AMO was just for there not to be a large number of east coast storms
  6. SnowGoose69
    Hey these days that’s a blizzard for early December
  7. SnowGoose69
    At the time it was the first case ever of a major storm being modeled that far in advance. Once we got to 96-120 every model had it including the UKMET. Forecasting was still pretty bad in 1993. It improved significantly in the ensuing 3-5 years as a result of the Euro being more widely used as well as the ETA being worlds better than the LFM/NGM.
  8. SnowGoose69
    Unfortunately not a great pattern for big storms (in general) January 87 had a pattern like that but it’s not likely to see an all snow event there with that setup
  9. SnowGoose69
    Similar bust on part 1 to the December 2003 storm. Difference was part 1 of the 12/03 storm busted on temps while the first part of the January 2011 storm busted on QPF that no models saw. The 2nd part of that December 2003 storm though majorly disappointed. The mid levels sort of torched between part 1 and part 2 and the coastal wasn’t deep enough so snow growth was lousy and the CCB was spotty leading to two mega bands over ERN NJ near EWR and another near central LI. In between most places saw 3-5 inches, if that. The CCB in part 2 of January 2011 rivaled April 82/February 83. It was just insane snow rates and a gravity wave may have played a part too much like it did in February 83 and January 04
  10. SnowGoose69
    That was a SWFE though. It seems we can score in SWFEs in bad patterns. I mean nothing was worse than 12/27/84 and 12/28/90 and NYC saw 6 in both. If you time that disturbance ejecting right into the high over SE Canada you can get a big snow. The classic all snow events seem hard to get without the AO/NAO/PNA in our favor
  11. SnowGoose69
    The good news is the pattern looks respectable next 2 weeks. It’s not great and it’s not hopeless. The long range models keep wanting to pull the MJO through 3-4-5 but the standing wave is preventing it. Probably see another snow event this month
  12. SnowGoose69
    I think they’ll still get 6-8 tonight and tomorrow
  13. SnowGoose69
    I think all got various pieces right. At that range I think the Euro mostly was best. Today a combination of the Euro/12Km NAM/UKMET all got various aspects right. The Euro was perfect til 20Z then lost it. The UKMET and 12km NAM sort of saw the funky evolution of the bands south of LI and in coastal NE NJ from 21-00Z but didn’t really get them totally accurate. I think the bottom line is that this was largely an inverted trof today and while many sort of suspected it was it was difficult to tell if it was an IVT or an IVT TROWAL CCB hybrid event
  14. SnowGoose69
    This is one of those storms that would probably have been forecast better in 1989 because models would have shown nothing but snow showers probably
  15. SnowGoose69
    Still a prayer if the stuff in CT drops SW and can fill in but I’m not optimistic
  16. SnowGoose69
    Amazing thing is LGA and JFK still had tons of cancels because of deicing. Even with temps 33-35 all day
  17. SnowGoose69
    I'm not sure any model showed the current radar presentation for 23z. They are all wrong now LOL
  18. SnowGoose69
    Euro continues performing best. It did show a chance of expansion of snow from 23-03Z across the area. We will see if it happens. I'm glad I only went 2-4 but even that could end up too high.
  19. SnowGoose69
    EWR 1.3, NYC 1.0, LGA and JFK 0.1 so far
  20. SnowGoose69
    Looks like Central Park has an inch on the ground on the cameras...could be slightly more
  21. SnowGoose69
    Yeah we were just discussing that at work that it looks that way. I've thought for days it looked more like an IVT
  22. SnowGoose69
    Having access to 3 hour panels on 12Z Euro its verifying well through 18z then it loses grip with too much QPF across LI 18-21 and 21-00. I think the Euro idea is right with the snow axis more or less holding current location through 03Z then falling apart slowly thereafter. The LI QPF is likely feedback from convection offshore
  23. SnowGoose69
    The 06Z Euro 18-21Z radar matches the radar almost dead on right now
  24. SnowGoose69
    Their OCMs who make the forecasts are relatively good. I don't see too many crazy snow forecasts from them inside 48 hours. They are usually conservative
  25. SnowGoose69
    Streets in parts of NYC are getting slushy now. A key observation too is DPs have lowered to 30-32 in many spots. That shows you we have cold enough at mid levels to get the surface DPs and Ts to 32 or less
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