SnowGoose69

It’s hard to know without details but the UKMET I’m guessing wouldn’t even be snow in ATL. That’s probably the more classic BHM-RMG-CHA snow track

These types of systems are probably the most favorable for that region because they do not tend to move NW as much with time because they don’t have the deep surface low. I’ve seen plenty end of destroying MCN though and missing ATL

The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48

Climatologically wise that is not the worst idea. I always tell people, do not forecast near record or record amounts unless model agreement is high.

Xiamen gusting to 80mph and their wind is offshore which means the center passed northeast of them. You'd have to think places just east of center gusting to 100-110. Satellite appearance I think this is a 95-100mph storm, not 125 as JTWC has

The RGEM had been dreadfully slow since its upgrade last year with most events. Using the NAM though which also tends slow I would say anyone from about central northern NJ east sees nothing before 10pm other than spotty light rain here or there.

Its gonna be tight for NYC, my hunch now is it will make it and stall just west of them the stuff off NJ is slowing its west progress which likely means we'll see the west progress slow up north within 1-2 hours.

Down in NYC the Euro may still end up more correct than the GFS or RGEM, the RGEM is verifying too far east right now down there, we have mod-heavy snow in portions of west-central LI it is not seeing or has 50 miles further east. The 12Z Euro will probably end up being off 30 miles on its west edge but because its impacting 20 million people, everybody is going to notice it, if it was over AVP or ABE hardly anybody would.

I was joking when I said Newark may see 8 inches and JFK 20 but it may be close to that.

They'll verifiy 2 feet on central and ERN LI, its NYC they may get killed, but even there I think ends up around 12-14, the RGEM has about that for NYC.

The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event

It sure appeared to be another DDoS attack to me

Eastern LI is safe but I could easily see NYC seeing 12 or 28

If still be inclined to drop amounts from NYC west by 6-10 inches or so, this could be the euro playing gradual catchup, if we shift 40-50 miles more I think 15 inches in NYC is about right

The school factor is not too big, that tends to be more significant based on the location of where the job you're applying for is who where the boss or bosses went to school. If you're applying for a job in California and went to San Jose State you may be at a big advantage vs. the guy who went to Penn State...the opposite might be true for East Coast jobs. I've long said East Coast schools or ones like Wisconsin/OU in the middle of the nation may be the grads with edges because the vast majority of jobs in meteorology tend to seem to be east of the Mississippi outside of Boulder CO/Norman OK.

IMO the U.S. National Weather Service needs to adopt similar training programs to which many other National Weather Services around the world have including the Canadian, UK Met Office, and BoM have whereby all incoming forecasters I think are subject to an 8-12 month course which teaches forecasting...too many incoming Mets have next to no experience and the only reason that the forecasts that do get put out in this country are superior to those around the world is that we have the best forecasting models by a large margin as well as a massive upper air network.

The other issue to remember is that often times, even in the case of an intern the MIC is trying to fill a focal point hole. If the last intern or perhaps one of the journeyman who just left was the webmaster for the office page he or she is going to be looking for qualified interns with strong HTML/programming abilities to replace this slot assuming the office does not have someone else already on staff readily able to take over the role. Same goes if they recently lost someone who was responsible for the outreach or hydrology sectors, they would try to find a candidate with some public presentation/media or hydrological experience respectively...its not always there but if it is that said candidate will have a significant edge over the others.

The SCEP may be going away but with the # of Vets coming out of the service given a mass downsizing that occurred in the last year it may as well just cancel it out. And the SCEP was not really the only way to get in, at certain offices such as State College, Albany, Norman, Grand Forks and a few others it was a major obstacle to the non SCEP crew but in smaller locales away from universities it was far from a complete blocking issue. SCEPs generally took advantage of the fact they could get into desireable locations, the worst location I have ever seen a SCEP walk into a slot was Little Rock, AR and believe me, Little Rock is a relatively nice city, but by standards of someone used to a bigger city it may not seem that desireable. If you're looking to apply to Goodland, Elko, San Juan, or Caribo its highly unlikely you ever needed to concern yourself with SCEP applicants.

I'm a computer moron, what is GIS? I see and hear about it all the time, I want to say its the NWS comp system deal but isn't that GFE?

In this economy, not much because when the job market is very poor you rarely find people with degrees too far outside of a career getting jobs in it. In 1999 people with Chemistry degrees were getting hired to work finance jobs because there were not enough people out there with business, marketing, or finance degrees looking for work to fill those jobs, but thats certainly not happening now. Earth Science teacher and environmental science positions are two that I know of where many people with meteorology degrees work, I'm sure there are others too.

From about 1990-2005 the employment out of school was very good for those who had internships and went hard for jobs, it dropped markedly thereafter due to the stiff competition due to more graduates and slowing NWS openings (which really started more in the latter part of the 90s). The employment was pretty dismal in the 80s from I understand before the NWS expansion started occurring, I met a shoe salesman in a store in NYC when I was still in high school who graduated in 1984 who said he could not find any employment and a friend of the family also had a son who graduaed around 1985 with similar problems...the whole thing may be somewhat of a cycle, we could see a drop off 10-15 years in the # of Met grads due to spreading word of the employment problems and the whole thing could repeat again.

My experience is that many people with a degree in this field often never work in it, either because they realize late in their college career that they do not want to relocate away from their home region, the pay is much worse than they anticipated, the shift work is an issue for them or for whatever reason they decide they'd rather do something else. It seemed back when I graduated school that those who wanted to find work in the field DID and the rest simply did not want to work in the field, now it seems its alot harder, even for those with high GPAs and internships during their college tenure.

The CWSU thing has been ended for now...so no changes, but it does not mean the 2 office consolidation idea won't eventually come back. The biggest problem in this field I think in 2011 is not so much breaking in, its very much advancing or moving around and I'm not talking about NWS people (its getting harder to advance and move there too!)....there are many graduates now so what is occurring is that alot of the positions that 10 years ago went to people with experience no longer are because they are so many cheap labor new grads in addition to a shaky economy where businesses are trying to be cautious with their money. If only some clients of these corporations knew how horrendously experienced, or NOT experienced some of these people were providing them with weather advice they'd probably run for the hills...with that said I was just informed last night about another recent position with a relatively large company that has gone to someone right out of school, a position which is in a very sensitive area of the field which should never be going to a person without IMO at least 10 years of experience.

Even that section I have bolded is often not true....I know of several very good jobs in the private sector that were open in the last couple of years which went to people right out of school despite the fact they did indeed interview multiple candidates who were way more eperienced and qualifited....the reason? Obviously they can pay them alot less....in reality people coming out of school have alot of say as to whether or not they break into the career...if they do 1 or 2 internships during the course of their undergraduate career and develop knowledge of forecasting they will have an exceptionally good chance of being competitive for entry level jobs, a decade ago someone could be a forecast ditz out of school and probably still get hired...the hardest job to get in this field nowadays is more the 2nd one than the first since because as you said there is such a massive supply of entry level folk you need to give them a damn good reason they should hire you for more money instead. This of course brings up the other issue that you could get stuck where you're at...this has become a topic of discussion recently in the NWS...people at HPC/TPC/OPC are having a very hard time transferring to a WFO, the same goes for interns trying to lateral and interns trying to become forecasters at offices other than the one they are in....one of the mets on this board tried to lateral as an intern 4 or 5 times and was rejected on each one.