SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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That is more due to the ULL feature not developing as well. I would not expect that to translate downstream assuming the surface low and WAA is decent
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I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive. There was zero doubt as to if it would get there. As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA
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They’re usually only highly accurate in scenarios where you’re locked into a 10 to 1 or more event with no mixing and you’re comfortably below freezing through the event.
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You usually can tell on soundings before models pick it up. If you have WSW or SW flow over 30kts in the 700-850 layer anywhere and aren’t at least -2C or colder it’s generally verifying above 0 in the end
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ATL continues to survive by a nose. AHN looks in trouble though
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The NAM seems to be playing hard what the main issue is with this event since the beginning. The high timing is 24 hours late for wedging and is generally too far north to ensure a true southern frozen event. If this system was 24 hours slower this is a massive winter storm down to Macon and most of NC is likely snow. If the high is 200 miles south this is all snow for most of northern AL and GA and north
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It’s still too early to know if this south push is a long term move. We’ve seen this occur before around this 3-4 day range and then as soon as everything comes ashore and is sampled the models pull a 180 one way or another and never move back
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If I remember right the UKMET runs warm on wedge events at this range so odds are you can pull that ice further southwest if that solution verified
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I think there will be major ice down to areas NE of ATL. I’m not sure if it makes it into the Metro at all. Especially given it would have to occur mid way through the event. Most icing events in ATL are from the start of the precip or not at all
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The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought. The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there. Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does
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The high is too far north for those sorts of totals into GA and SC. That would at best be mostly sleet there. Think January 88. It was a flatter setup than this was or at least a weaker low, later in the season and still most of NRN AL and GA saw sleet. This probably is north of the 12Z Euro in the end but even if that verifies dead on those places south of the TN-Spartanburg line are likely sleet. Atlanta might even be rain
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The wedge appears to me to build in way too late for them. I could be wrong but simply looking at timing it seems they’d precipitate for too long prior to the wedging so it would be 35-38 and rain. It’s still very far out though.
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If you didn’t know any better looking at satellite today you’d think Florence had its own mind and deliberately deviated north to get away from the shear and dry air and now said okay I’m resuming course again.
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Correlation coefficient still showing the R/S line more or less straddling interstate...85 I believe from ATL airport down about 20 miles or so but it is pushing ESE
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The Obs over AL in that snow band are not impressive, but the 700-850mb temps in that area such as MGM are not anywhere near as ideal as they will be over the ATL metro. Many places are -1 to -2C at 700 while ATL will be near -7-9C at 09z
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RGEM looks like it changes BHM over at 11Z or so
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Dewpoints just seem too high right now. If those do no start dropping I don't see how any significant snow occurs there
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I would not even bother with the GFS at this point for thermals. Use it for precip axis only and maybe storm track
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The RGEM even shows the R/S line going north after 20Z in GA due to precip shutting off or slowing down.
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RGEM snow maps make no sense. Seems to show significant snow at ATL but the ptype algorithm on TT shows mostly rain other than a brief 3 hour period
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RGEM on ptype maps appears to be mostly rain at ATL other than from 15-18Z or so.
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Don't use the HRRR that far out.
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The 00Z NAM to me looks like it slide south across GA/AL. Thats purely looking at precip field...not thermals
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I know last year that ATL got their first ever severe freezing rain event without a wedge so anything can happen
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I'm sure people here know better than me but I want to say GA commonly snows with thicknesses over 540
