Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,271

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    UKMET at least on the precip fields through 72 doesn’t look nearly as good as the GFS or CMC although it’s close
  2. SnowGoose69
    Both the GFS and CMC now look like the Euro as far as having the overrunning up this way
  3. SnowGoose69
    The NAM is on its way to producing a big low offshore at 84 but it would probably track too far to the east
  4. SnowGoose69
    It’s likely due to the warm AMO. I would expect over the next 20-25 years we will see less big events
  5. SnowGoose69
    FWIW the 18Z ICON is north LOL
  6. SnowGoose69
    I only saw the EPS mean but unless all the snow on the EPS mean was coming from some members bringing the coastal closer there did seem to be about the same amount of snow for southern parts of SNE that the Op had
  7. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it’s nothing like the Euro at all. It looks like it’s gonna go insane with the low coming out of the TN Valley. No way to know where it goes because the speed it ejects it out at would mean everything
  8. SnowGoose69
    The setup at 700 looks lousy to me for solid overrunning. Then again with that sort of high maybe we just have a massive area of light snow and someone gets lucky if we have some sort of frontogenesis feature form. The EPS does seem like it agrees on the overrunning so maybe other models moves towards the Euro on having it more north
  9. SnowGoose69
    There are definitely some members of the EPS and GEFS seeing later development of the coastal after the confluence weakens allowing the system to come more north. The Euro Op is pretty far north with the overrunning snow relative to every other model outside the NAM.
  10. SnowGoose69
    It’s a bit late still in the Euro range to totally trust it
  11. SnowGoose69
    Other than the NAM the Euro is the only model showing that weak overrunning that far north from 84-96. Given that is outside the Euro’s ideal range it may not be reliable
  12. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the only other 12Z model that really resembled the Euro on the overrunning was the NAM. Everything else wants to just destroy the overrunning stuff or have it way more south
  13. SnowGoose69
    If the coastal is delayed the confluence may lift out and the system could come up the coast. There seemed to be a move towards that this morning somewhat
  14. SnowGoose69
    Probably have to hope this idea of the later coastal is correct. Some GEFS members show it. If that does happen it’s possible the confluence gets out of the way and this comes up the coast
  15. SnowGoose69
    Who would ever think this wasn’t going to destroy all of us in 48 hours based on this panel alone?
  16. SnowGoose69
    You would think a KU was coming based on this
  17. SnowGoose69
    I would be surprised if the pattern isn’t really great from 1/25-2/28. That doesn’t mean we will get snow though. I’m not sure about March. Some of the especially lousy El Niño December’s have lousy Marches. I think someone posted the closer to 0 or above that the SOI averages in an El Niño December the worse March is. It’s not a big sample size though
  18. SnowGoose69
    The ICON looks oddly flat to me from 60-84. I think we may get hit by that intital push of snow and the second wave may end up being a brutal miss almost everywhere north of VA. There is potential here for DCA to get missed by both waves based on some things the last two model cycles
  19. SnowGoose69
    The NAM as some pointed out in the MA forum almost looked to shift towards what the 06Z ICON showed which was a delayed setup where there is initial overrunning and then it appeared it was headed for a coastal post 120. It looked like largely a miss anywhere south of PHL/ACY but it seemed headed for something huge down that way
  20. SnowGoose69
    The NAM soundings at 72-84 are not that dry. It’s too far out for any accuracy but if we end up that saturated it won’t be hard to get some snow if that area of overrunning that many models snow verifies
  21. SnowGoose69
    Even with satellite I still think there is a big difference when the energy comes ashore. It’s just not the same til the RAOBS sample the system
  22. SnowGoose69
    If you go to GFS I believe it’s the FV3
  23. SnowGoose69
  24. SnowGoose69
    Any analogs jump out for this storm? Jan 14 maybe? Jan 2010? When I clicked in the TN Valley region the #2 analog date was 2-4-10
  25. SnowGoose69
    If you go to the ncep page and change the web address portion from “mag” to “mageval” you can get it or it’s on tropical tidbits under FV3-GFS under global models
×
×
  • Create New...