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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    And here comes the CT river valley dry punch. Snow shield starting to slow as it approaches the metro but continues advancing over WRN NJ. It happens every time
  2. SnowGoose69
    You can see the benefit of this being November here. There is zero virga with this now. Based on traffic cameras its already snowing almost to southern SI
  3. SnowGoose69
    Radar echoes indicate this should be pretty much solid moderate. I still think the S shore may flip quickly by 21Z but the north shore of Queens and NYC could be frozen til 00z
  4. SnowGoose69
    Ceilings already 3-4,000ft, there won't be much virga with this at all
  5. SnowGoose69
    EWR wind is 360. Both models had 070, even the 12Z NAM
  6. SnowGoose69
    Winds are still mostly NE in many areas that were supposed to be E. The high is likely anchoring better than expected.
  7. SnowGoose69
    No way with that south flow that the 700-850 layer does not verify 1-2C warmer
  8. SnowGoose69
    DCA is still snowing though most guidance had them raining.
  9. SnowGoose69
    As of 11Z the GFS is clueless on wind direction having LGA already 060-080 and they are 040. The NAM axtually holds LGA 050-060 all the way to 00Z which could indicate they stay frozen that long if cortect
  10. SnowGoose69
    Not much cold air to be pulled in and it’s not a fully vertically stacked dynamic storm
  11. SnowGoose69
    It does often in western Suffolk in nor’easters but you need a 13C degree difference at least between the 850 temp and water temp for that to occur so generally it’s a system in the middle of winter where that occurs. You will see places like West Hills sometimes have snowfall maxes during nor’easters because of this
  12. SnowGoose69
    The near straight south to north approach is ideal for the city to over perform on these sort of events but the problem is the time of year with insanely warm water temps. Generally if you are above 44-46 it’s extremely hard to stay frozen for long unless you have a wind on the north side of 040-050. We used to use a rule that if your water temps were 45 or higher your 850s had to be -10 or colder or you usually switched over quickly with an onshore flow
  13. SnowGoose69
    I wouldn’t expect a ton of melting if the rates are decent given low sun angle and also the fact it’s been relatively cold recently. Obviously pavement in the city won’t see much but I think it’ll accumulate quickly on the grass everywhere
  14. SnowGoose69
    This event basically all comes down to how early it begins and how heavy. I do like the angle of approach of the WAA as well as the lift. It should result in coastal areas seeing plenty of precip. Often in something resembling a SWFE the angle by which the system approaches and the sharpest WAA puts most of the precip too far west and north early on.
  15. SnowGoose69
    The winds directions on both the NAM sand GFS at 12Z are 060-080 for the most part which would argue it should go to rain easily at the coast and even NYC. The NAM does show signs from 21-00Z of trying to back towards 040-050 again. If that happens it could be frozen longer
  16. SnowGoose69
    I checked the numbers today and since records began there has only been 6 days between 11/1-11/15 with over one inch of snow and 3 with over 2.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The Twitter world is a mess with angry Atlanta folks in regards to no businesses or schools being closed tomorrow because “Irma was not even this close to here and you closed for that.” Completely different setup for that one though. I was amazed to see how many people remembered the fact Irma didn’t actually track anywhere close to areas it produced strong winds in once it dissipated to a TS. The general public usually isn’t that meteorologically savvy. Especially after a year
  18. SnowGoose69
    It’s also west of expected. This could be a bigger problem close to ATL than orginally thought although it could still hard hook NE overnight. Given the winds will be NE though and it’s at night I’m not sure effective mixing down will occur
  19. SnowGoose69
    I don’t know if there is any scenario at the moment where they see strong winds. If it’s a strong system it means it was probably over water longer and will get kicked east by the incoming trof. If it’s weaker it’s more west but probably isn’t that strong by the time it reaches there. I guess there is a possible unlikely scenario where it comes ashore in 72 hours and undergoes RI and comes in as a 4 over AL or far west FL sand they get slammed but it’s not likely
  20. SnowGoose69
    It’s certainly an unusually rare October pattern for an El Niño. It’s generally troffy in the east. It’s more common to see November be mild and even then it’s usually more a zonal type setup. Any sort of long duration western trof/eastern ridge pattern doesn’t happen often in any El Niño October or November. I think late October and early November 2002 did have a 2 week stretch where a pattern like that setup though
  21. SnowGoose69
    TWC has beem laying low the last few years but finally a moment today out of the blue. Maria Larosa just up and left with no warning. She never really said why outside of strongly hinting it was to spend time with kids but I found it odd when she said they were 13, 11, and 8. That seems to be awful late in their lives to make that move, anyone I know who has done that it’s uusally much earlier on. Hopefully it’s all good and they’re not starting to clean house again.
  22. SnowGoose69
    If I remember right the stratosphere was an absolute ice box in October and November which likely led to the NAO problems that winter. It was also insanely dry considering it was an El Niño and it continued straight through the next summer. October 94 - September 95 has to be one of the driest 12 month stretches for most of the northeast in the last 50 years
  23. SnowGoose69
    Maybe TWC needs to start sending these folks home that the worst is over? Alex Wilson looks exhausted. She had obvious bags under her eyes. Probably didn’t get any sleep at all last night
  24. SnowGoose69
    Damn. MYR might be getting hit hard. NWS forecast this afternoon has gusts to 83kts
  25. SnowGoose69
    As it moves further inland you also have more deciduous trees or evergreens than at the coast where there are lots of palms. Those will easily go down with 60-70mph winds and saturated ground. A cat 1 in NC does alot more damage in NC than it does in Florida because mostly palms there
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