SnowGoose69

With the light N-NNE wind late tonight they’ll probably drop quickly

We should. The cold AMO has correlated to snowier conditions in the mid Atlantic southeast Tennessee valley and southern plains

Basically a product of the warm AMO. Oddly enough we are near the end of it and some even argue out of it now but the SST peak definitely occurred at the back end of it. We were probably in the meat of the warm AMO from about 2002-2008 or so

Yeah for whatever reason Logan and Philly both removed the official measurements from the airport years ago. It’s why you’ll never see SNINCR remarks during storms there. I believe a few other airports have done that too including DEN

The cold AMO was probably the reason for that as well as just overall bad luck. We’ve seen the last few years you can get snow with a +NAO here, back then it seemed we never could

Most of those were in non El Niño years. I think that stat is heavily skewed by La Niña years which tend to be cold early like 1989 or 1996. Though 87-88 wasn’t a snowy winter here I do believe it was fairly cold or at least near normal.

Oddly enough December 1989 has no record low mins or record low maxes at all for Central Park yet it’s the coldest December on record

As far as I know the only times Jacksonville has snowed in the last 100 years is December 1989 and January 2014 I think and only 89 had measurable snow

In February of 73 there was a massive snowstorm in AL/GA/SC. It was so far south I think Birmingham and Atlanta got missed but some places saw 20-30 inches

Friday morning will probably severely bust MOS low temps. It’s nearly the same setup as Tuesday morning last week when the ridge axis came overhead and JFK dropped to 31 with a MOS forecast lows of 39 and 40. I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of LI got close to 5.

Tuesday is a pretty good example of a setup that is snow 4 weeks from now easily but isn’t this week

More models nailed it than we realized. It was just hard to believe this time of year with ESE flow in the mid levels and the surface supposedly going east as well that we’d see anything at best better than a ton of sleet. I wasn’t so much surprised by the fact the surface winds stayed NE as the last 5 years or so we’ve seen highs seemingly able to anchor better CAD into the metro than we ever did before but how the mid levels didn’t get overwhelmed I’ll never know. The lesson might be that SE flow in the mid levels doesn’t get underdone by models as severely as SW flow does. Most showed a near isothermal layer or -1 and I thought that would verify +1-2. Another interesting factor yesterday was how most stations went 080-090 as the snow moved in and then went right back to 030-050 soon after. That almost seemed to be some sort of frontogenetical inflow into the leading edge of the snow

Unlikely given most of the factors in the long range and the enso right now

It seems slightly low given the .79 liquid. Newark has .88 liquid we have to see what their snow total is

The wind directions this morning gave it away to me but I still didn’t think it would hold on this long I felt maybe JFK to rain at 22Z and LGA by 00

.64 liquid

Late last winter I thought they stopped taking that 4pm measurement if I remember correctly

.64 now in New York City. This should be the 2nd largest daily November snow. They might need to measure before the standard 7pm time though because any sleet and rain will compact it

This is certainly the worst positive bust since probably 12/5/03. There’s been some forecast moderate storms that ended up very big but it’s been awhile since something expected to be next to nothing ended up this bad. I think it’s a bigger bust than 2/2008

Newark now at 6 inches.

Wow. Central Park .25 liquid last hour

4pm snow measurements were funky. LGA reported 1.2 on .19 and JFK 3.2 on 2.5. Central Park didn’t report

Climate report at 445 will likely tell us. They’ve had .21 liquid so I would guess close to 2 inches although been more since top of the hour

Funny how JFK is warmer than LGA. That 070 wind is mild this time of year

It usually begins to slow down as it gets north of TTN