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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The seasonal tendency may be scaring them from going big as well. Even this morning we are fighting more dry air here with the snow than I expected. It seems every event is having something go wrong in some way to minimize it so that may be in the back of their minds too
  2. SnowGoose69
    Upton appears to not be issuing any advisories at all either for CT
  3. SnowGoose69
    I would bet hard NYC doesn’t see big snow tonight. Most models showing too much of a warm nose 850-900. It’s not really even in the margin of error for it to hold isothermal. I do think it’s possible places like Bridgeport certainly could though
  4. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it makes zero sense though. You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this. The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z
  5. SnowGoose69
    Just wait til the Isles light the Leafs and Tavares up 6-2 tonight
  6. SnowGoose69
    Because the ridge has been positioned too far west all winter so you’ve either gotten rainers or junk in fast Pacific flow that can’t amplify
  7. SnowGoose69
    ICON is a hit because of what it does with the first storm in New England. Need that storm to keep amping. The more amped the better chance for everyone from my area down into the MA on the next
  8. SnowGoose69
    Notice too how much flatter it came in on the next storm as a result
  9. SnowGoose69
    This system is going to continue moving NW much as the little system from NYC south did for tomorrow. As a result I fully expect Sunday night and Monday will slowly tick south as well. It’s not gonna be enough to save areas along the coast from BOS down to NYC totally from rain but they’ll all probably see their biggest snow of the winter Sunday night and Monday.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has a tendency to be overamped beyond 96 since it’s upgrade 4 or so years ago
  11. SnowGoose69
    I’ve noticed very few from there in the absence of obs threads during major events. Then everyone comes out of the woodwork. I remember being amazed during the December 2017 storm how many metro Atlanta posters I saw in the obs thread because I mostly see NC/SC in here when I’m looking
  12. SnowGoose69
    It looks anafontal to me. I don’t know how often anafrontal snow occurs there but I’m sure it’s not a common setup
  13. SnowGoose69
    As I posted earlier today the El Niño is really more a neutral so there really isn’t any massive southern stream action. The ensembles are showing a bunch of Miller B storms for the most part. With the cold presses though something may time out right down there
  14. SnowGoose69
    If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all. They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now
  15. SnowGoose69
    Only reason it seems too warm is system is squashed and takes forever to finally come north from Florida. Had the system in Texas ejected out front 108 there’s plenty of cold air across LA/MS/AL/GA if it came across at 132-144 and you also don’t see the subsequent ridging happen if system kicks out. Basically the whole setup in the SE is different if the system ejects timely
  16. SnowGoose69
    Ensemble mean sure looks to eject it better though not perfect
  17. SnowGoose69
    System at 120 over OK/TX doing exactly what you want at this range. Getting buried and squashed. Fully believe that wouldn’t happen and that system would continuee moving E along the gulf coast
  18. SnowGoose69
    The GFS will squash southern waves like that at this range. It loves the northern stream and hates the southern stream. Taken literally based on the pattern the Op Euro is too far to the east with the track anyway. That system would probably track further west if it dug that much into the Gulf
  19. SnowGoose69
    The CMC thinking that precip is rain over AL and GA made me laugh
  20. SnowGoose69
    It looks too NW flowy to me for anyone south of the mountains to snow. I know last winter Atlanta got a NW flow snow event but the flow above 850 was mostly SW. I don’t see that on this setup shown
  21. SnowGoose69
    I remember being there for the January 2010 storm and we were about 1-2 hours away from disaster and repeating 2007. Thankfully right as we were nearing it we flipped to sleet and avoided another mess. I think we got about 3/4 inch of ice between about 10am-1pm before we went over to sleet. Got 6-7, inches of snow the next day which was mostly unforecast outside of Mike Morgan who either got lucky or saw something nobody else did
  22. SnowGoose69
    18Z RGEM metogram has .70 snow for OKC
  23. SnowGoose69
    LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?
  24. SnowGoose69
    I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z verified as shown (which it likely won't). There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across. Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected. I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.
  25. SnowGoose69
    That is more due to the ULL feature not developing as well. I would not expect that to translate downstream assuming the surface low and WAA is decent
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