SnowGoose69

Bastardi has long said that drought conditions in the East from 10/1-11/15 are usually a bad indicator for the winter most of the time. Not only indicating dry but also that it may be mild. 1994, 2001, and 2011 all saw that happen.

The projections i have seen are 2023-2029 being the window. I think somewhere closer to 2023 is more likely.

It could be some sort of cold AMO connection too. Most of the below 0 days occurred during that so likely has at least some impact on it

Yeah when I went back and looked at the surface maps post 1910 of all the below zero nights I think all of them minus that insane 1917 outbreak had strong winds. The difference is for some reason there were more instances of highs/arctic outbreaks entering the US east of 80-85W back then where as now we rarely if ever see that and when we do often times the trajectory will be too E-SE so the core of the cold air goes over New England and not here.

I could see it being like a December 02 maybe...not necessarily snow wise but temp wise that at least is respectable and averages near normal. I don't think we will see a torch pattern or SE ridge though some forecasts have inexplicably (in my mind anyway) gone with a pronounced SER in December

The only way you do well in this setup is if there is more negative tilt to the trof/front as it crosses or if a surface low forms along the boundary as its pushing offshore.

Looking ahead at the AO forecasts next 2 weeks if that verifies it seems virtually impossible we could have a positive AO winter. Without even looking I would guess there is at most 2 cases of a -2 or greater AO November having a Dec-Feb AO average positive

Its pretty strange. You wonder if May being warm or cold correlates the same way to June-Aug reversing. I definitely know a few years like 1996 and 2002 saw May be the complete opposite of summer which ended up pretty cold in both cases though 2002 had a pretty meaningless late comeback in the last 2 weeks of August which skewed it

2/6/93 I think, it was a Saturday. I clearly remember that sunset too now that you mentioned it. I thought we would see widespread below 0 lows that night because the high dropped straight out of Quebec and we had a snow pack but nobody got even close. The forecast was for maybe a dusting-2 inches and a localized 4-7 hit because of a surface reflection that formed along the boundary across NJ and south of LI.

December 84 and 90 I thought had the biggest snowfalls of the 80s and they were 6.6 and 7.8 respectively I believe

That I believe was one of only 2 storms ever to give 6 inches to DCA and BOS but not also give 6 to NYC. The other occurred only 10 months prior to that on 1/26/87. I believe JFK did get 6 on 1/26/87 but LGA and NYC saw way less

There’s no question it has some sort of bad correlation but I don’t believe the snow event itself is the reason. It’s the pattern which leads to the snow event. Chances are if you see a snow event before 11/20-11/25 in this area you’re under some sort of anomalously cold pattern. There’s been plenty of evidence that getting too cold too early can cause some sort of atmospheric reshuffle between the mid latitudes and polar regions that impacts the winter. 89-90 is one example and there’s quiet a few others.

At this rate the NAM will be around for 5 more years at least

They should just name it for media purposes. It’s way easier for some of these rip and readers on air to say Jerry for the next two weeks than Imelda.

Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola

Yeah I’ve seen that writeup too. I’ve always said that 3/2/09 on a small scale was what was supposed to happen on 2/24/89 that didn’t. The two setups had big similarities at 500. They almost were as close to being identical type setups as February 83 and December 09 were. The NWS was also very slow to react too. The models (including the NGM) sort of started backing off the event for NYC and PHL as early as 12Z on the 23rd but it was a gradual back off to an extent. I think by 10pm on 2/23 when the 00Z runs came out most mets knew the forecast was in big trouble but they were reluctant to totally take things down. February 89 scarred many meteorologists to the extent I know of quite a few still working who aren’t exactly people with great memories but they recall well what happened with that event. I almost think I’ve come across more meteorologists who remember busting 89 than March 2001. I know someone posted here or another forum in recent years that a forecaster in the NYC or PHL office who worked the days leading up to the 89 storm was never the same after and was somewhat shy to take media calls afterwards and uneasy about dealing with winter storms.

The ICON was a nose SE as well

I know they definitely are more aggressive on the first event of the season. They'll put out advisories sometimes for events that are borderline and I've even seen them mention because its the first event of the season so it would not surprise me if they consider that

I definitely think the fact tomorrow is not a week day is playing into the decision a bit as well. I'm not sold they wouldn't have gone more aggressive on amounts if it was

The seasonal tendency may be scaring them from going big as well. Even this morning we are fighting more dry air here with the snow than I expected. It seems every event is having something go wrong in some way to minimize it so that may be in the back of their minds too

Upton appears to not be issuing any advisories at all either for CT

I would bet hard NYC doesn’t see big snow tonight. Most models showing too much of a warm nose 850-900. It’s not really even in the margin of error for it to hold isothermal. I do think it’s possible places like Bridgeport certainly could though

Yeah it makes zero sense though. You’re not getting an amped system like that on Sunday night behind this. The Euro will likely gradually tick flatter with that starting at 00Z

Just wait til the Isles light the Leafs and Tavares up 6-2 tonight

Because the ridge has been positioned too far west all winter so you’ve either gotten rainers or junk in fast Pacific flow that can’t amplify