SnowGoose69

As expected they now suck the first 3 weeks and are good after. Whether or not it’s just a delay til 1/20 or a continued push back who knows. I don’t know of many winters though which flipped good or bad that late. If you get a flip that late it’s usually transient like 95-96 was and you go right back to what you were in.

The track makes no sense really. The disturbance would have to eject out with perfect timing.

We basically keep getting an “Alastuian low” showing up. It’s not a true Aleutian low and it’s definitely not the death vortex or the GOA low but it’s in between enough that it’s not good enough. I’m inclined to think that type of setup won’t occur. It’ll either stay crappy and be an Alaskan vortex or the Aleutian low and subsequent PNA ridge will set up

The big question is does the storm track suddenly go dead. It’s hard to believe we can hold this type of activity all winter. When we finally flip we may end up drier. Even in an El Niño it’s hard to keep things going the whole way through.

Probably means Euro won’t bite yet. Not as solid a rule as it once was but probably still 75-25 it follows it to some extent. Especially on a cycle where big changes occur on other guidance

Fisher or Gia

If that unfolds exactly as shown which it obviously won’t it would likely be snow just about everywhere. You don’t need much cold air with that setup

The good news is as of now the ENSO guidance doesn’t show a La Niña come the fall. It’s pretty steadfast on neutral to weak Niño so if we end up f*ing this up maybe we get a second chance in 19-20

The AO I believe averaged negative that winter there was something that mucked everything up outside the Niño but I forget what it was. We had the AO in 09-10 which was a very strong Niño as well relatively speaking.

97-98 had a ton of bad luck. The overall pattern that winter may have been better than the recent super Niño

Bastardi has posted this theory before as has Ryan Maue although both have said we likely have come off it by now. I know many speculate the 93-94 and 95-96 winters with fairly active storm tracks were a lag of the long duration 1990-1992 El Niño. The background states of those two winters largely argued for them to be dry yet they were very active. 2010-11 may have been a lag of the 09-10 Niño as well

The southern MA and southeast can actually score in our crappy winters on occasion because the combination of the pacific jet and positive NAO prevent the system from phasing and or climbing the coast. Someone posted the example of this yesterday. The 91-92, 01-02, and 11-12 winters all snow significant snow events down in the southeast

1994 was bone dry if I remember right. Perhaps I’m thinking of October and November but I definitely recall the entire period from 10/94-9/95 was insanely dry and that more than anything in the back half of the winter lack of precip killed us. 94-95 doesn’t seem like a good analog to me based on that alone. 06-07 was more wet if I remember correctly but the central and southern Plains was also cold that winter for big stretches which hasn’t happened yet either

The models may be ready to spit out a few exciting runs regarding 1/3. I’m leaning towards us getting missed to the south if it ejects out early enough and is a snow event but if you’ve noticed this season the trend has been for big changes around day 5-6 with models locking onto tracks around Day 4 with not much change thereafter. We saw that occur with these next two systems and may be seeing it now with 1/3. I think if this is going to happen we will see some sort of big move towards it within the next 48 hours

I definitely am leaning towards that being a southern MA event if it happens. More inclined to believe it probably reaches DCA this time though

Even then I think we would get missed to the south. Hell, even DCA might get missed by that

Lately we’ve been struggling to get them though. Obviously 15-16 happened but the previous two winters the ENSO models were locked onto an El Niño in spring and summer and it didn’t really come close to happening either time

For all the 94-95 horror I’m pretty sure that even if we duplicated that late flip we would probably see alot more snow than we did in 95. It was cold pretty much til 4/15 that year after we flipped around 1/25. If just was a different ERA storm wise than we’ve been in the last 10-15 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if places saw triple the amount of snow if we repeated that exact setup. It just wants to snow these days when the cold air is there

That almost never occurs so I would toss it for now. It’s more likely to just die than go backwards

I thooght March has always shown a cyclical tendency in that it goes 25-30 years where it tends to have snowier outcomes and then a cycle where it doesnt. It sure went through a downward phase for awhile prior to the last couple of years

Isn’t phase 7 highly favorable during El Niño? I know it’s typically hostile otherwise

It could but it shouldn’t matter much if the true El Niño climo sets in with the Aleutian low and BC ridge. If that PAC refuses to cooperate it won’t matter much even if the PV came to this side

The 1/3 event may very well cut as well. I don’t buy that event being suppressed at all. When has the WAR ever underperformed once in the last few winters or an arctic boundary arrived faster than expected 5-6 days out when we have any semblance of a WAR or SER?

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that threat pans out. The GFS and Euro have wanted to suppress it somewhat on recent runs but given tendency recently and last year years of that WAR to overperform I have a feeling this is going to happen. It may end up mostly an inland threat though

March was pretty much the result of a SSW event otherwise it likely torches as well. The remarkable thing about last February is it was literally the second February in a row with a massive torch. Many cities in the east rebroke their all time February monthly record only one year after they broke it