SnowGoose69

The only way you do well in this setup is if there is more negative tilt to the trof/front as it crosses or if a surface low forms along the boundary as its pushing offshore.

Looking ahead at the AO forecasts next 2 weeks if that verifies it seems virtually impossible we could have a positive AO winter. Without even looking I would guess there is at most 2 cases of a -2 or greater AO November having a Dec-Feb AO average positive

Its pretty strange. You wonder if May being warm or cold correlates the same way to June-Aug reversing. I definitely know a few years like 1996 and 2002 saw May be the complete opposite of summer which ended up pretty cold in both cases though 2002 had a pretty meaningless late comeback in the last 2 weeks of August which skewed it

2/6/93 I think, it was a Saturday. I clearly remember that sunset too now that you mentioned it. I thought we would see widespread below 0 lows that night because the high dropped straight out of Quebec and we had a snow pack but nobody got even close. The forecast was for maybe a dusting-2 inches and a localized 4-7 hit because of a surface reflection that formed along the boundary across NJ and south of LI.

December 84 and 90 I thought had the biggest snowfalls of the 80s and they were 6.6 and 7.8 respectively I believe

That I believe was one of only 2 storms ever to give 6 inches to DCA and BOS but not also give 6 to NYC. The other occurred only 10 months prior to that on 1/26/87. I believe JFK did get 6 on 1/26/87 but LGA and NYC saw way less

There’s no question it has some sort of bad correlation but I don’t believe the snow event itself is the reason. It’s the pattern which leads to the snow event. Chances are if you see a snow event before 11/20-11/25 in this area you’re under some sort of anomalously cold pattern. There’s been plenty of evidence that getting too cold too early can cause some sort of atmospheric reshuffle between the mid latitudes and polar regions that impacts the winter. 89-90 is one example and there’s quiet a few others.

At this rate the NAM will be around for 5 more years at least

I have heard it both ways. There has been arguments excessive storms re-curving in the Atlantic can lead to mild and cold winters via heat transfer. I'm not sure there is any significant connection either way.

It just seems to me it would have to gain a decent amount of latitude the next 48 hours to have any shot at finding that weakness

They should just name it for media purposes. It’s way easier for some of these rip and readers on air to say Jerry for the next two weeks than Imelda.

Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola

Yeah I’ve seen that writeup too. I’ve always said that 3/2/09 on a small scale was what was supposed to happen on 2/24/89 that didn’t. The two setups had big similarities at 500. They almost were as close to being identical type setups as February 83 and December 09 were. The NWS was also very slow to react too. The models (including the NGM) sort of started backing off the event for NYC and PHL as early as 12Z on the 23rd but it was a gradual back off to an extent. I think by 10pm on 2/23 when the 00Z runs came out most mets knew the forecast was in big trouble but they were reluctant to totally take things down. February 89 scarred many meteorologists to the extent I know of quite a few still working who aren’t exactly people with great memories but they recall well what happened with that event. I almost think I’ve come across more meteorologists who remember busting 89 than March 2001. I know someone posted here or another forum in recent years that a forecaster in the NYC or PHL office who worked the days leading up to the 89 storm was never the same after and was somewhat shy to take media calls afterwards and uneasy about dealing with winter storms.

Parents in North Merrick got about 3.40

This area does look like it is gonna clip most of Brooklyn queens and east I think for the next 3 hours or so. I’m not sure if it might weaken though as the forcing exits east with the low center

Steve D tweeted there was rotation when it was nearing the Queens and Nassau border. You could see the cell was trying to split for a time too where the southern half was trying to break off

Parents in Merrick said they think they gusted somewhere around 60-70

Can clearly see the edge of the start of the line here in Merrick to the west. There’s a nasty line of scud where it starts

The 12Z HRDPS seems to have handled the last 4 hours best. It would suggest eventually west and central LI get hit after 22Z

Depending how much additional development can occur in SE PA and SW NJ, Long Island might eventually be hit

We definitely just bolted from the blue here in Merrick. Got a massive clap of thunder. A strike must have come from the cells to the south

Not always. That wasn’t the case in 96-97 and 05-06

The ICON was a nose SE as well

I know they definitely are more aggressive on the first event of the season. They'll put out advisories sometimes for events that are borderline and I've even seen them mention because its the first event of the season so it would not surprise me if they consider that

I definitely think the fact tomorrow is not a week day is playing into the decision a bit as well. I'm not sold they wouldn't have gone more aggressive on amounts if it was