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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I don’t expect they see anything with the WAA. It’ll be sleet mostly. Still could be clobbered by the 2nd half of the event. You can’t put a closed low in these locations often and not see heavy snow there. Even if the surface low is over Plymouth if you have a closed off 500 circulation NYC is usually snowing
  2. SnowGoose69
    I generally assume in a pattern with a block that the goal posts will move less inside 72-96 than they otherwise will. This thing may ultimately just have model noise the rest of the way.
  3. SnowGoose69
    It was also a classic due north mover. Any overrunning event that approaches from the south tends to be badly under modeled here at the coast for two reasons. Usually there is intense banding features due to the iso lift and the cold air locks in better as the gradient flow holds 040-060 for a long time.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Yeah front end could be very icy. I highly doubt at the moment outside of far northern suburbs there’s any appreciable snow on that front end
  5. SnowGoose69
    In that setup it’s hard to have a warm layer for a very long period. That’s a very strong closed system
  6. SnowGoose69
    You can toss the UKIE snow amounts. The city would get bombed on that setup. It has 33-35 with rain with dewpoints of like 30. That’s gonna be snow
  7. SnowGoose69
    The closed low on the NAM from 75-84 is just insanely broad. That means there will be a gigantic dry slot. You can’t really know details for another 36-48 or so on this but someone will be clocked on the W-NW side of that closed low. The slow movement isn’t exactly great because if the low ultimately begins occluding everything west of the closed low will shutoff so you want slow movement to maximize snow potential but not so slow the surface low begins to occludes and everything behind the upper low does
  8. SnowGoose69
    The NAM for the last couple of years has been much better beyond 60 but I’ve found you can only trust it’s solution in that range when it “drum beats” showing virtually the same idea over and over for 3-4 runs. If you see any sort of waffling it can be tossed.
  9. SnowGoose69
    I don’t see there being any snow with that. The GFS is likely too warm showing all rain but I expect it’ll be primarily sleet. There could be some snow for about an hour early but that’s all. I won’t really be confident about Monday til we see the track of the ULL. The bottom line is any closed ULL that is positioned East or northeast of the area can produce heavy snow and you often won’t get details on it til inside 48 when the RGEM or NAM are inside range
  10. SnowGoose69
    It’s basically like 4/1/97
  11. SnowGoose69
    It is but it’s a broad closed low and it’s far north so the surface depiction seems to match it though I’m not sure that Connecticut would be dry slotted that severely
  12. SnowGoose69
    The question is. On that panel is 500 closed off. If it is there would be heavy snow basically from NYC to PVD with the low in that spot
  13. SnowGoose69
    It’s when they call the cops from the street in Los Angeles and get picked up
  14. SnowGoose69
    Even in the 1992 Seinfeld episode when Jerry said it to George he responded “black and white”?!
  15. SnowGoose69
  16. SnowGoose69
    There was another storm later that month where ITH/BGM got destroyed I think with like a foot and the forecast was 1-3. I think it was a clipper that hit mostly the NYC area but some funky band formed up on the north side that nobody saw coming
  17. SnowGoose69
    The worst thing was nobody reacted that morning when it was evident the forecast was in serious trouble. There was insane rates of rainfall moving up the NJ coast and it was 35/26 or something in NYC and basically all everyone did was push the changeover time back when in reality no significant warming was occurring on a NE wind
  18. SnowGoose69
    Many people mistakenly think the WAA snow on Friday wasn’t forecast like January 2011 but it was actually forecast well. It was the temps that weren’t and so it was snow and not rain.
  19. SnowGoose69
    12/5-6/03 is one of the most underrated busts ever. The first part of the storm overperformed for NYC because SNE cleared out overnight ahead of the cirrus shield and the NE flow affected much colder and drier down ahead of the WAA precip than expected. Instead of the 38/35 that was expected it was 38/28. Then the second part of the storm that was supposed to be the main show was disjointed and produced virtually nothing
  20. SnowGoose69
    1-4-03 I vaguely remember as being a small event that had a mega gradient. NYC was all rain and 33 yet places like BDR/HPN/HVN snowed all day and had like 4-6 inches I think. It was somewhat like a 12/9/95 or 12/9/05
  21. SnowGoose69
    Usually when there’s blocking the tracks change less at day 3-4 but they still change. This whole evolution is going on early enough I think we might see things tick north in the next 24 hours for a few cycles then go back south again close to today’s ideas. I’m not sure this can really slide much more south
  22. SnowGoose69
    It probably has 33 at the surface or something which in that setup probably wouldn’t happen
  23. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET and CMC basically look like March 2001 gradient as someone pointed out in the SNE thread or even 4/1/97 minus the bigger amounts in EPA and WNJ
  24. SnowGoose69
    That is such a rare sort of gradient to see. I’ve seen many smaller storms have gradients like that but the big ones usually end up 100 miles north or south if they have amounts that major. There’s no way NYC is seeing 3-4 inches in that setup. They’d probably see 0 or it ends up 100 south and they get 12
  25. SnowGoose69
    Probably seeing these trends occur too early. This will probably end up bouncing back north once we get closer in
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