SnowGoose69

Bridgeport 45knot gust with that cell

Cells forming in E NY moving S-SE. These may impact Suffolk county later if the RRFS is correct

NYC ASOS getting 46kts is impressive with all the trees around it, likely means it was 10 knots or more higher

LaGuardia 56 knots

EWR/TEB both gusted over 50

There is no question there is some type of correlation too, at least for places like AL/GA/MS/SC for the frequency to be higher during the cold AMO periods. That does not seem to be as much a factor for TN/NC/AR/OK/TX. But there is a higher peak, even in El Nino winters for those other 4 states in the 70s/80s and even during the more neutral or weaker warmer AMO period of the 40s/50s. I don't know if that is purely that colder outbreaks are more common then or perhaps/phasing amplified systems that cut north of them are less likely.

There is likely going to be an area near NYC or just south which gets impacted the hardest as the front approaches and enhances the inbound TSTM area from the W-SW. The HREF has been showing this

HRRR continues to be pretty wimpy most runs, the RRFS has consistently shown a stronger signal and the FV3 GFS and NAM do too

The NAM begging for its retirement on 8/31 to be moved up with its forecast for TSTMs across the NE tomorrow afternoon

97 was not bad, but that was probably because relative to 96 it had way more 90 degree days, but it was at least normal. Most of the El Nino summers though were not mild. 2002/2009/2015 I don't believe were either.

This one would at least probably act like an E Nino. 23-24 really did not, at least not in the SE US and MA

The 18Z HRRR now looks like the Euro after 21Z tomorrow. Probably no accumulation but it'll be snowing a day after it was 80

NYC is 79 now but the winds are starting to go more south now.

There is currently a 33 degree difference between Jones Beach and most of Nassau County north of the LIE

80 would be earliest 80 for NYC ever but I think they won't quite get there

Many places in N Queens/Nassau are reporting 32, had friends check though and they told me they are not seeing any freezing on the trees or any surfaces

The RGEM was headed that way too it seemed.

None really getting up into SNE but I think it still could. I do believe though Sunday needs to go away or be very flat. Its noticeable on many Op runs and individual ensembles that those which are amped or more intense Sunday as a whole are flat or nonexistent with the second event.

Might be some wild temp gradients if that heat wave verifies, probably mid to high 70s in NJ and maybe low 50s on LI. Does not look like it lasts terribly long, another cold stretch could easily occur by mid month or slightly before

The Euro and AI both came north for late tomorrow, still more or less total misses but would be funny if GFS nailed another one

The AI has suddenly gotten a bit shaky the last few weeks. I'm to the point I am blending the GFS with the CMC/Op Euro because its been wildly flopping around with systems since about the start of the month.

UKMET is basically non existent with it. Partly because I am sure it has that first system at 90 way north and more amped than anything else does. If that happens I think it increases the odds the 2nd one is flat.

This one continues to be incredibly complicated and now we have a subtle front running disturbance ahead of the main ejector too showing on all models. That could potentially help pushing the main one more south but it could also lead to suppression too

The timing of the ejection is everything. Anything from PHL-DC or BOS north could be the bullseye with that setup

Next weeks threat is pretty thread the needle. Really need to eject the shortwave at the right time, otherwise you'll get suppression or a track too far north.