SnowGoose69

It IS a sloppy phase but also there's no real high in place in SE Canada so probably even in a clean setup that one verbatim is close.

It looks pretty transient to me. I do think there is a window there 1/20-1/23 or so where a storm likely happens but right after that we continue to see the 3 ensembles all more or less go back to a +PNA look again or a hybrid -EPO/+PNA look that may be briefly suppressive. I think 1/24-1/29 may favor the MA/SE. After that might be a 2 week window up this way. I am now becoming more confident we carry this ti 2/10-2/15.

I would watch MS-AL-GA-SC Sat-Mon. Something may come out of nowhere inside 4 days. UK has been showing it on and off and does again today. Remember that the GFS/Euro sort of suck with killing shortwaves in these patterns. The ICON does not really show much now but unfortunately 2 of our main models have issues with Gulf Coast slider type events which is why so many of those historically have popped up inside 96 hours.

At the moment it seems next Wed-Sat is a window to watch. I'd favor the interior or Lakes right now but we've seen the SER be overdone at times. I think after that for awhile we may go a bit suppressive and the pattern from the 24-29 may favor the SE or MA. It could be when we begin to see a relaxation the week following that we could see a coastal event.

There will be a 2-3 day period next week Tue-Thu or Wed-Fri where the SER builds briefly. This is probably when the OH Valley/NE likely sees a big winter event but thereafter the +PNA likely comes back and that may be a broader trof which makes it more likely a winter event hits the SE somewhere in the 23-30 period

I think it still eventually goes but I had said a week ago the +PNA was likely going to hold longer than ensembles showed. They've just been bad past about D8-10 this winter but reasonably good with the pattern ideas up til D10. I think the EPS at D16 may be showing signs of a breakdown coming soon after that. The evolution back to the -PNA may not be the typical shift west of the EPO/PNA ridge but may be the Pac jet smashing it down and then the -PNA evolving after that. If you loop the EPS from D14-16 it appear maybe if ran out to D20 that would be what happens.

I am just amazed how good the long range ensembles have been this winter with the theme or setup of the pattern inside about 192 and how bad they have been beyond that. Now we have the ensembles today briefly trying to go -PNA but then seeming to be shifting everything back towards +PNA again by D15-16. I think most likely the overall idea is the +PNA is going to hold longer than expected as that regime once it establishes as hard as it is going to here it is difficult to boot it out. I have no real ideas beyond that because the MJO strength is a big issue if its strong or weaker

Beyond D7-8 but inside of that they've tended to get the pattern theme close. I'd feel pretty good now in the SE in that window from the 14th-20th. It may carry past that because I believe the +PNA will hold longer than currently modeled. We will eventually go to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER but that might not be til like the 27th or 28th despite what ensembles try to show.

Chances are even if those MJO forecasts are correct it'll be the 27th or later til any impact on the pattern happens but it would argue February is mild in the east if a strong wave is going through 5 or 6

The ridge is still probably too far west on the GEFS though. I don't think that is what happens but if it did that is not a KU or coastal setup really, its again very 93/94 like but I think if you're Philly north you take that

Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat. I'd also be wary of how all 3 suites go from this booming PNA to a -PNA in the blink of an eye in the D9-16 range, we all know pattern changes tend to be rushed so my feeling is we end up holding that pattern from 240-320 or so for awhile vs hard flipping right to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER....that idea MAY be right but would not surprise me if its like 1/27-1/31 before that happens and then by 2/10 we are in a classic Nina Feb look and we're done unless we get the Nino March transition 2nd winter peak

It was always likely the GEFS was gonna be wrong, its been having PAC issues now the last 2 winters. The one area I feel its been better is the NAO. The GEPS caving to the GEFS yesterday was funny though

fortunately with a high end weak to moderate El Nino likely next winter we should finally get out of it

Hannibal has 33 inches already, its only about 5 south of Oswego on a straight line

February I still feel is a lost cause, although if we delay this flip it makes it more likely February, at least maybe the first 10 days is serviceable. There has been 1 guy consistently hyping February though since like October and thats Larry Cosgrove who has been saying 1/20-2/15 is pretty much the window for this winter and has not moved off that idea.

That said I think only NYC/LGA had above normal snow and that was by like a half inch maybe, JFK was shutout or close to it. This Dec was overall a snowier pattern, it would be quite the surprise if January ended up even like +3

The one consistent thing this last 6 weeks is models have largely been able to lock into the theme at around 168 hours at least so I'd think by the 6th we really want to see consistent ideas of the trof kicking eastward and the ridge building out west if we are going to see the 12th or 13th being the start of something manageable, if we are not seeing that by then I think we can kick this more out to the 16th or 17th

I think more a general rule that applies is if January is way above normal there are almost no cases of the winter being snowy. That is really the only rule I think that applies. I just do not know though how many below normal Decembers with above normal snow saw torch Januarys though. Off memory I don't recall any, maybe 2005-06? 1989 obviously was crazy cold but had no snow albeit we had 1 very close call where like POU/BDL/BDR saw 5-10 inches so these things are somewhat relative as close calls either way could have resulted in years fitting/not fitting into analogs.

I'd have tossed it in a second 3-4-5 winters ago but given the PDO decline back near neutral these past 2 winters I am inclined to trust it more on the W-Coast/Canada/AK ideas these days over the GEFS as its outperformed it there now the last 1 1/2 cold seasons

It is quite amazing how the last 5-6 cycles the wild shift the GEFS/GEPS have made while the EPS seemingly has not moved for 5 days. The GEPS now moved to the GEFS idea from 1-2 days ago while the GEFS in the 8-12 day range sort of moved to what the ECAIFS/EPS was showing in that period but then immediately goes back to trying to do post D12 what it was doing yesterday beyond D8 lol

A strong El Nino December would rarely have those anomalies from ND into the Lakes, they'd normally be above normal. Sometimes the immediate EC can be below but El Nino Decembers, even weak to moderate ones often are not cold anywhere except the Deep South and SE and that is often just a relativity thing where a place like ATL/BNA might average -1 largely due to lots of overcast and rainy days but not exactly have a ton of days in the 40s or below or nights below 32. An El Nino January or February can have that type of departure map though

Well the GEFS the last 2-3 runs is really moving towards the GEPS/EPS in the D8-10 period ejecting the trof/building the ridge out near the west coast.

Up until last winter the GEFS was owning the EPS on Pac based stuff for like 5-6 years in the long range, that changed last winter and so far this winter that trend has continued. What has happened though the past winter and a half now is the GEFS is owning the EPS long range on the NAO stuff it seems so maybe lean towards each idea on both with that

Historics argue we are in a real good spot next winter. The weakening PDO the past two winters now coupled with the La Nina strength as of 12/31 in 3.4 argues we would see a Nino somewhere in the 0.5-1.2 range next winter and it would likely be able to couple with the atmosphere vs the 18-19 event. There has never been a Nino over 1.2 the ensuing winter when we've had Nina numbers where they were on 12/31. Almost all of the Mod-Strong events had either cold neutral or just below that.

IMO it never made sense with the EPO spike which many of the individual members showed and the GEPS/GEFS had.