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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The Euro/NAM/RGEM are really the only models that'll see wedging/CAD but even those tend to underestimate it at times beyond 48 hours. The UKMET/GFS/CMC can underestimate it.
  2. SnowGoose69
    20:1 is tough here outside of maybe a clipper in a very cold setup. Coastal lows usually its either too warm or too windy for ratios that good. PD2 is a case though where I think ratios may have been close to that and 2016
  3. SnowGoose69
    Having done forecasts there for years the wedge often times tends to be deeper in NE Ga so they end up more sleety in this storms. I think if this trends more to FZRA they'd probably see much less precip and just get like 0.25 FZRA and that is all. There is a narrow setup for them to see monster ice totals there. The wedge tends to save them or the system just usually cuts more north and they are drier.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Well the TWC behind the scenes folks sure like the NRN most solutions. Their depictions at least in the MA on S and W are on par with the CMC or UKMET.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Its pretty safe to say this event up this way will not be as insanely long duration in all likelihood as it may be down in the SE because they may see a crazy long overrunning period. I felt the 12Z Op Euro was gonna go full blown UKMET when I saw it through like 96 hours but it ultimately deviated after that.
  6. SnowGoose69
    I'd think no at this range. I think the mid-level warm advection will push a layer somewhere over 0C very early on
  7. SnowGoose69
    I still think they mostly end up sleet but long way to go. If some CMC version occurs or close to it the risk is there for mostly FZRA but they'd also be drier in that case though
  8. SnowGoose69
    CMC was just slower overall but also moved towards the more east later transfer idea. I said last night that either happens way west in the TN Valley or in coastal SC/GA in these setups. It won't typically happen over WRN GA/AL.
  9. SnowGoose69
    I would not worry a ton about the GFSAI. If the EUROAI begins going flatter its more a concern.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Better than the GFS but this is not the type of storm the CMC tends to make big scores on. I like the CMC for major phasing events between the NRN/SRN streams or classic Miller As that result in deep surface lows. It can tend to be less reliable in this type of storm.
  11. SnowGoose69
    CMC gets there to a degree still but I have felt for awhile its idea was nonsensical, we do not typical see phases happen in the location it had been trying to show it. I more buy the interaction and turn north happening later along or off the SC/GA/NC coast
  12. SnowGoose69
    CMC definitely moving towards the GFS/Euro idea it seems so far
  13. SnowGoose69
    ALL models do! lol
  14. SnowGoose69
    Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48. 2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did
  15. SnowGoose69
    I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA. They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.
  16. SnowGoose69
    Euro/AI solution makes more sense as to how it evolves. I still like flatter down in the Deep South with more a late evolution to near the CMC idea off the MA coast
  17. SnowGoose69
    The CMC is phasing/turning the corner in a climatologically very rare location. I have seen some systems do that but they are often monster deep Miller A lows. I think in the end that idea would result in a phase either earlier and more west or more likely east near the SC/GA coast or GA coastline
  18. SnowGoose69
    Its phasing the storm at an unusual point climatologically. Chances are it will either phase and turn the corner quite a bit west of that or more down towards the coast. No question verbatim its solution is unlikely to the T, you'd need to have a much more dynamic phase or deep low.
  19. SnowGoose69
    Soundings show it may be more sleet. There's a sub freezing layer from 875mb and below which often is deep enough
  20. SnowGoose69
    The Op would be IMO a bit suppressed but what this system could do too is turn the corner late. So we may see a move in the next 2-3 days towards the system being further south back in the WRN TN Valley/Deep South/Plains but still making the move more up the coast. Just later on than the CMC shows for example
  21. SnowGoose69
    Correct. Especially in the wedge. This rule is not as useful in the SRN plains/TN Valley/Oh Valley as much but often times in the GA/SC/NC wedge sleet ends up more dominant than you expec
  22. SnowGoose69
    Be careful with the EUROAI post 120, from about there inside its been good. Beyond that less so. I still like an idea as of now slightly north of the Op Euro idea.
  23. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET having rain in NE GA in that setup is funny
  24. SnowGoose69
    Its still too far out but right now something between the UKMET and CMC would be my guess. I'd rather be here than Boston or Albany right now, thats for sure. I think the CMC may overall be a bit north of what eventually happens
  25. SnowGoose69
    The 18Z Euro over SE AR and N MS its like 1 inch of freezing rain in 6 hours
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