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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    LOL it has no storm at all.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Many notable events here https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72
  3. SnowGoose69
    Many notable events here.....more for the SE overall https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72
  4. SnowGoose69
    The UK/Euro it seemed for most of the 2018-2025 period would often go opposite directions of each other alot in the D4-7 range, but this winter there has been more a tendency for them to generally follow one another for sure
  5. SnowGoose69
    I would be surprised if ATL saw accumulating snow with this. The whole ridge/trof orientation to me does not favor it, you'd need this to drop south back across AL/WRN GA and bomb or begin the intensification process at 500 over SE GA or FL panhandle vs over SC or off the SC coast.
  6. SnowGoose69
    This would kind of be an epic fail by the GEFS though. I do feel most cases of the GFS dropping the ball on big storms the GEFS has tended to not really support iy most of the time.
  7. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET does not even look anything like the other models (minus the ICON) over GA/SC. That alone makes me want to toss it. I do think that the GFS/Euro/RGEM may be tossing way too much snow back too far west in GA/SC but the overall agreement there tells me ignore the UKMET further down the line
  8. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET does not even resemble the GFS/CMC/Euro over GA/SC really. Given thats only 84 or so hours out I'd tend to say toss it, the differences there to me are just pretty significant that it being the outlier in the deep south tells me its future ideas are off as well. I still would think the GEFS/GFS is probably too far west at this stage.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Early on I thought the CMC was coming way west
  10. SnowGoose69
    The 18Z EC/AI were like 12/27/04 level misses. 75-100 miles and you go from nothing or a minor event to a monster.
  11. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM has been pretty money this winter at 84, generally too amped overall as has always been the case but I'd usually take it 9 out of 10 over the NAM at 84.
  12. SnowGoose69
    GFS tends to be stubborn most of the time, in this case since the solution is wonky it might waffle but ordinarily whatever it shows around 96-120 it holds til like 36-48 when it caves.
  13. SnowGoose69
    Generally no, but in cases like this where the setup is semi complicated with a ton going on we've seen it happen.
  14. SnowGoose69
    2/1999 was one I thought of too though I think that missed the Carolinas, that backed in from well out over the ocean
  15. SnowGoose69
    This is highly likely to just close off way too early but I would not rule out the chance of a modest snowfall here potentially, I just doubt we are likely to see a monster storm in this area
  16. SnowGoose69
    For the past few years the UKMET/Euro have often tended to go reverse directions at this range, but this winter so far they've tended to follow each other.
  17. SnowGoose69
    My main concern now is too much of a NW move down in the SE over time. We don't want to see places like BHM/ATL/BNA getting accumulating snow from this, if that happens there would be a higher chance this has mixing issues up here.
  18. SnowGoose69
    The 1st one was not either, it was expected to be south although the morning prior or even 36 hours prior models began making a shift to the north.
  19. SnowGoose69
    The end of the ensemble runs look to perhaps be signaling the soon to be breakdown of the pattern as they are retrograding the ridge out west but it could ultimately be 2/15 or later before that happens
  20. SnowGoose69
    For areas near you to get involved this has to amp up and get going earlier but that is certainly possible given the setup that this could trend that way.
  21. SnowGoose69
    LOL. Florida would shatter record lows in some spots if that 120 hour ICON verified
  22. SnowGoose69
    Central Park ended with 11.4
  23. SnowGoose69
    You can see how just N of Central Park in NE NJ there's totals of 13-14, definitely a sharp increase where it stayed snow
  24. SnowGoose69
    Depends on if we go to FZRAPL. They went from 7.2 to 8.8 from 1pm to 345pm so probably could get to 10.5-11 if we stay mainly sleet
  25. SnowGoose69
    NYC record was only one not from 1/25/2000 I think
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