SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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This storm is doing what I said last event could. Heaviest rates sometimes happen in the first area that sees snow just N or E of where the mix line stalls for the longest, sometimes areas well N and E who get all snow out of the storm never see rates as intense though they might get higher amounts. We saw it in Philly about 10 years ago, they got 8 inches in like 3 hours but eventually went to sleet and rain.
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Maybe 3, I think its changing over soon after 10pm but there could be 2 inches this next hour for sure
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something like 3-5 inches in places like SI/JFK maybe is the ceiling. I felt a couple of days ago a total whiff was more likely than now
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Echoes drop off in intensity here soon so some areas may see sleet mix back in but then another area of heavier echoes could cross after 930. I would say 10-1015 the sleet line will probably cross the metro, it should begin moving quickly near or just before that
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That seems high but rates could be 12:1 right now, NYC has had .07 already so could be 1 inch easily here KNYC 090137Z AUTO VRB06KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG FEW005 OVC010 M01/M03 A3007 RMK AO2 P0007 T10111033
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That was just a wave more or less along a boundary, no surface low. Outside of that first 3 hours only like 2 more inches fell, but 6 or so fell in 3 hours
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Even ABE is now reporting UP, but honestly the 12Z Euro showed them mixing by 01z, its just a question if the area from like SMQ ENE through the metro sees the sleet line stall
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It'll probably get in here around 730, maybe 745, could come down hard for awhile but its hard to tell just yet if it'll be sleet or snow, it could be like 70% snow/30% sleet
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18Z Euro is trying hard, drops over .30 liquid at JFK. I think what is happening on some ensembles and some model runs now is that the the next system digging down into the SRN plains may be pumping the SER downstream which causes the late north push of the first wave. I had said yesterday sometimes these setups there can be late push N that gets eastern parts of the area but this may be aiding by the trailing system
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Either the Euro or NAM will end up correct, both show no precip here til 01Z but the Euro goes insane from about 0130-0330Z with like 2-3 inches of snow in that period. The NAM has little in here til 02Z or so and its sleet right away
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Current radar sure matches the NAM better than any other model outside of the Euro, most already have extensive precip to the PA/NJ border by 23Z and not much is there
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NYC will have like 9-10 by the end of tonight even if it’s mostly sleet. They’ll probably still get close to 15-20 in the end
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I don’t love the pattern right now after 2/20, it has the look of cold and dry on alot of ensemble members. I don’t necessarily see suppression just nothing on some of the members patterns shown
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The HRRR on that run is just too late/weak with the precip shield more than anything. It has the changeover still fairly late relative to the NAM
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That was really the problem. That shouldn’t happen this time which is why even if it sleet there is going to be markedly more frozen precip than last event
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They only have a small chance in the grids from 22-00z which seems about right. This will start between 00-0030z
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In an event like this with massive mid level WAA I never really look at thickness. I typically only do it for all snow type events where its marginal temps and then I use 1000-850 which until recent years practically no online websites even had anyway, you basically needed to be an NWS employee and have AWIPS til about 10-15 years ago to view it. It usually works way better in a marginal temp event than 1000-500. I think in the January 2008 storm the 1000-850 argued the area would see no snow at all. I recall a MET posting that on the old forum
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I'm becoming increasingly confident LI/S parts of the metro will see some snow with the Tuesday event, not likely over 3-4 inches but more confident a total miss won't happen. North areas I think could see nothing. Thursday IMO is rain for the coastal areas and maybe ice inland, Tuesday COULD have some impact on Thursday but probably not a ton because we get a temporary fail of the EPO and the trof out west which is going to allow that thing to dig for China and cut regardless.
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Thursday also gets impacted by what Monday/Tuesday does. Not a ton, because changes with the EPO ridge in NW Canada likely allows so much digging to happen in the Rockies/Plains I think even if Mon/Tues does everything possible to flatten or push things more S that Thursday is going pretty far north anyhow, but for up here and SNE it can probably make a marked difference for Thursday, in the MA likely no.
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We'd get something on Thursday or Wednesday probably but again it would be a slop type event. Any all snow event after Tuesday's chance would be the following week into the end of the month when the pattern overall looks more classic.
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00z ICON barely even hits DC lol. When I said I thought this would miss south or COULD a few days ago I meant like maybe TTN-BWI, not Richmond
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It needs to be an approaching system from the south. Overrunning events that come from the SW or W here rarely are big. 2/8/94 was due to flukey mesoscale banding but generally its the southern approachers with a high up over Maine that are the biggest like November 2018. They tend to be rare though, in the last 30 plus years I can only remember 6-7 events that did that.
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It bombs once in a great while on storms like this. I recall using it a few winters back and basically going mostly sleet and we got like 5 inches of snow before it flipped over. Every now and then it’s totally out to lunch on the warm push. We can hope it’s doing that here
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The Euro is very late on the precip arrival too but is way too cold aloft so it has snow til like 05-06Z in NYC. I just don’t see that happening. I issued a forecast of 1.5 inches of snow followed by a half inch to an inch of sleet
