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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET does not even look anything like the other models (minus the ICON) over GA/SC. That alone makes me want to toss it. I do think that the GFS/Euro/RGEM may be tossing way too much snow back too far west in GA/SC but the overall agreement there tells me ignore the UKMET further down the line
  2. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET does not even resemble the GFS/CMC/Euro over GA/SC really. Given thats only 84 or so hours out I'd tend to say toss it, the differences there to me are just pretty significant that it being the outlier in the deep south tells me its future ideas are off as well. I still would think the GEFS/GFS is probably too far west at this stage.
  3. SnowGoose69
    Early on I thought the CMC was coming way west
  4. SnowGoose69
    The 18Z EC/AI were like 12/27/04 level misses. 75-100 miles and you go from nothing or a minor event to a monster.
  5. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM has been pretty money this winter at 84, generally too amped overall as has always been the case but I'd usually take it 9 out of 10 over the NAM at 84.
  6. SnowGoose69
    GFS tends to be stubborn most of the time, in this case since the solution is wonky it might waffle but ordinarily whatever it shows around 96-120 it holds til like 36-48 when it caves.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Generally no, but in cases like this where the setup is semi complicated with a ton going on we've seen it happen.
  8. SnowGoose69
    2/1999 was one I thought of too though I think that missed the Carolinas, that backed in from well out over the ocean
  9. SnowGoose69
    This is highly likely to just close off way too early but I would not rule out the chance of a modest snowfall here potentially, I just doubt we are likely to see a monster storm in this area
  10. SnowGoose69
    For the past few years the UKMET/Euro have often tended to go reverse directions at this range, but this winter so far they've tended to follow each other.
  11. SnowGoose69
    My main concern now is too much of a NW move down in the SE over time. We don't want to see places like BHM/ATL/BNA getting accumulating snow from this, if that happens there would be a higher chance this has mixing issues up here.
  12. SnowGoose69
    The 1st one was not either, it was expected to be south although the morning prior or even 36 hours prior models began making a shift to the north.
  13. SnowGoose69
    The end of the ensemble runs look to perhaps be signaling the soon to be breakdown of the pattern as they are retrograding the ridge out west but it could ultimately be 2/15 or later before that happens
  14. SnowGoose69
    For areas near you to get involved this has to amp up and get going earlier but that is certainly possible given the setup that this could trend that way.
  15. SnowGoose69
    LOL. Florida would shatter record lows in some spots if that 120 hour ICON verified
  16. SnowGoose69
    Central Park ended with 11.4
  17. SnowGoose69
    You can see how just N of Central Park in NE NJ there's totals of 13-14, definitely a sharp increase where it stayed snow
  18. SnowGoose69
    Depends on if we go to FZRAPL. They went from 7.2 to 8.8 from 1pm to 345pm so probably could get to 10.5-11 if we stay mainly sleet
  19. SnowGoose69
    NYC record was only one not from 1/25/2000 I think
  20. SnowGoose69
    This will be a test for the RRFS to see if its idea of the line pushing back SE is right.
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its unlikely I think they'd add more than 1-2 more inches anyway, though they probably did get an inch from 1-2pm
  22. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the good news is it seems the RRFS is close to as good as the NAM and better than the HRRR on this. The HRRR actually picked up on it this event, probably because it was such strong warm advection
  23. SnowGoose69
    They had 7.2 at 1pm
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah based on measurement of 7.2 and EWR 8.0 I think we know those are off unless ratios came down so far the last 3 hours they averaged out 9 or 10:1 in the end
  25. SnowGoose69
    I have heard EWR was 7.7 as of 1pm, not official, it may be near that
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