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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    You can see how just N of Central Park in NE NJ there's totals of 13-14, definitely a sharp increase where it stayed snow
  2. SnowGoose69
    Depends on if we go to FZRAPL. They went from 7.2 to 8.8 from 1pm to 345pm so probably could get to 10.5-11 if we stay mainly sleet
  3. SnowGoose69
    NYC record was only one not from 1/25/2000 I think
  4. SnowGoose69
    This will be a test for the RRFS to see if its idea of the line pushing back SE is right.
  5. SnowGoose69
    Its unlikely I think they'd add more than 1-2 more inches anyway, though they probably did get an inch from 1-2pm
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the good news is it seems the RRFS is close to as good as the NAM and better than the HRRR on this. The HRRR actually picked up on it this event, probably because it was such strong warm advection
  7. SnowGoose69
    They had 7.2 at 1pm
  8. SnowGoose69
    Yeah based on measurement of 7.2 and EWR 8.0 I think we know those are off unless ratios came down so far the last 3 hours they averaged out 9 or 10:1 in the end
  9. SnowGoose69
    I have heard EWR was 7.7 as of 1pm, not official, it may be near that
  10. SnowGoose69
    The liquid equivalent at NYC of .73 seems high relative to LGA/EWR/JFK unless they just have been under heavy banding.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Yes. I think even LGA/JFK have some freezing rain like 01-04z maybe as things really lighten up
  12. SnowGoose69
    The Central Park cam at 72nd street you can see the plow go by and within 10 minutes its covered up
  13. SnowGoose69
    JFK now at 5, EWR 7, NYC had .17 liquid this hour! I think JFK may be undermeasuring a bit, they do often times in windy events.
  14. SnowGoose69
    PHL over to SNPL. EWR on their SPECI just now has had .09 liquid this hour already so maybe 2-3 inches again
  15. SnowGoose69
    EWR 2/5 now .09 last hour...JFK reported .06 but no snow remark total for the hour. NYC had .13 liquid
  16. SnowGoose69
    Looking outside I swear 2 inches has fallen in past 30 minutes
  17. SnowGoose69
    The ratios will begin to fall to like 8 or 9:1 by 18Z probably but you'd think there will be amounts now of 10-12 in some spots before it changes
  18. SnowGoose69
    LGA and NYC had .12 and .10 liquid past hour. LGA now reporting 3 on the ground 2 last hour
  19. SnowGoose69
    I think there will be many 7s-8s-9s but getting over that unless rates go to 2-3 inches an hour after 15Z will be hard
  20. SnowGoose69
    I think they may get saved a bit by sleet but I’m not highly optimistic
  21. SnowGoose69
    Does now look like NE side of ATL metro will get hit hard. Didn’t think they’d do it a few hours ago but even think down to the airport now makes 31-32 by 4-5am but those areas may benefit from the dryslot more once they are under the threshold
  22. SnowGoose69
    Looks like across Maryland and south snow began when cloud decks reached around 7,000 ft. Across PA it’s been 4,000ft. Up here it may take til they get down to 2500-3000ft. I’d say it could begin as early as 10Z but meaningful accumulations won’t be til 12-13Z. In these setups too the immediate NYC area as well as western LI always pulls down more dry air from the Connecticut river valley and can take longer to saturate than NW NJ and central and eastern LI
  23. SnowGoose69
    This looks pretty close. 7-9 or 8-10 for LI/NYC area unless little mixing happens https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne
  24. SnowGoose69
    I prefer the high to be situated a bit more SE and the approach of the storm to be more due south than it is in this case but both are close. I’ve mentioned before the center of the high over or slightly east of PWM and the core of the system approaching from along the VA/NC coast due north vs more from the SW is ideal. January 87 2014 and November 2018 are examples of that. It tends to result in more severe lifting and crazy snow rates but can also slow the changeover
  25. SnowGoose69
    I’d be more worried honestly this comes pretty far back north. The trof while deep in the east it’s not an exceptionally cold air mass anymore by late week and it’s not like January 20 last year screaming suppression to me. I’m not saying it’s a Tennessee snow event but it may be the classic north of a Montgomery Macon Charleston line event where Birmingham to Atlanta and on east gets the snow
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