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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board. Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro
  2. SnowGoose69
    The AI EURO has been a bit more waffly the last 3-4 events beyond like 60 hours. I felt through February it never moved once on anything inside like 108. The systems this month its definitely bit more bouncy
  3. SnowGoose69
    I do think probably this has a west edge extreme maybe like December 09 or so as far as big amounts. I think even if it works out something like 50-75 miles west of the 18z Euro Op is probably the best doable at this point.
  4. SnowGoose69
    The Op Euro still does seem to do wild stuff at times, especially the 18Z runs, the 06z I seem to notice it less but its been noticeable that its wacky at times at 18z to me. I don't see that issue as much anymore with the NAM/RGEM. I see it with the GFS at times but way less than we'd see 15-20-25 years ago.
  5. SnowGoose69
    This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east. Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss. That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right. This one however is subject to big moves still. I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles.
  6. SnowGoose69
    To be fair it is due for a win. Its been 3 winters I think since it has had a big score. It did well for awhile there pre most recent Euro and CMC upgrade but since those 2 got upgraded 2-3 years back and its not made a hit.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I'm not surprised the GFS is not caving yet, it always is stubborn til usually the final 60-72 hours or so though in the last few years its sometimes given up a bit earlier
  8. SnowGoose69
    This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was. Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance.
  9. SnowGoose69
    the NAM is in essence useless beyond 48-60, it can do anything possible beyond that and you cannot really put faith in it at all being right or not.
  10. SnowGoose69
    Most also show another lead wave Saturday in the southern MA or SE which is a problem too
  11. SnowGoose69
    That final panel is like 2/1989 exactly. I always say if you see that you better have a very strong -NAO. 12/26/10 was close to that too but not same orientation. The ridge was taller
  12. SnowGoose69
    I think this is either gone or established as a likely impact by this time Thursday. There should be a solid move towards one idea or another by then
  13. SnowGoose69
    I'd have this event as highly likely nothing right now if the initial storm Friday was more of a pure coastal low, but because its more GL low transferring I am not quite as worried about the whole baroclinic zone/trof etc being forced east making it AS hard for the followup system to get going. I am still leaning more than slightly though that this thing whiffs.
  14. SnowGoose69
    I am still going for a miss at the moment. But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs
  15. SnowGoose69
    Thats what I took from it. I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours
  16. SnowGoose69
    The first system does not concern me too much here because its more a late Miller B type transfer. If it was a pure coastal or an earlier transfer way south I'd be more concerned about the Sunday storm ending up flat or not happening. As a matter of fact we probably do not want the Friday event to have the primary/Lakes low be too strong because I think the leftover result if that happens may be Sunday being more a risk to do what the AIGFS had been showing on some runs yesterday
  17. SnowGoose69
    Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great. It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago.
  18. SnowGoose69
    AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux. ICON was going to be well south and flat this run.
  19. SnowGoose69
    This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building. Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this. I think it'll be Thursday before we know much
  20. SnowGoose69
    Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it
  21. SnowGoose69
    I think this will be weak-moderate. The CFs/Euro have been too strong on forecasting ENSO events. I tend to go more with the ENSO model average...right now they barely have this even making it to 1.0....regardless mostly El Nino summers as you say are pretty cool here in the east.
  22. SnowGoose69
    I'm amazed in 02-03 it did not totally freeze
  23. SnowGoose69
    Tomorrow night looks a bit too windy, if it was not I think many places would go below 0 outside urban areas Monday AM.
  24. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it looked done. My co-worker walked in at 6 and was really upset about his forecast from the evening prior thinking it was going to bust. Around 10pm he finally began to talk again lol, but it was dead silence til I finally said I think you're gonna be good
  25. SnowGoose69
    That late capture with the upper low really saved us. That was quite close to busting west of central Long Island til the last minute. Similar to December 2009
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