SnowGoose69

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs. Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

Yeah I think 2018 was the year where in southeast parts of the US all the trees opened and there was major damage from frosts in March and April

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though. It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

The last minute or two I think they are partially in the eye. Conditions seemed to have improved a bit

Definitely picked up as soon as winds flipped more NW from the ENE

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

Moving more E of N now, MBJ could possibly miss the west eye wall if it kept moving more NE

Likely just outside the eyewall but those winds still look maybe 70-90mph

Was just thinking he might be in that eye for a bit, should be close to fully clear in it

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement. Not sure if thats a real thing or not

Bad tracks not just for the population but those both hit resort areas hard. Most of them are on the western 1/4 of the island so thats a loss of a big portion of their economy for this winter probably

Watch the next 2 weeks. GEFS pulling the Ole 21-22/22-23/23-24 thing D12 plus right now where it says nahhh you don't to the GEPS/EPS regarding the Pacific. It did that at times last winter too but due to the poleward AK ridge it was wrong almost every if not every time. This could give us some idea where this winter is going, at least early if the GEPS/EPS end up winning this one if it remains a persistent difference in the models the next few days. I will say that over the last 10 days or so all of the ensembles have somewhat lost the battle as we are definitely still much more GOA/AK vortex heavy than we were on their forecasts back 10 days ago, so they certainly rushed the change.

Didn't we have a massive NF warm pool in Nov/Dec 2000 though? I think that its more the lack of a 50/50 low for some reason that we keep seeing that. We saw it less often last winter however when we had the -NAO because that vortex was there to prevent it from happening.

Thats not too surprising given the recent combo of a strong west based -NAO and AK vortex flooding W Canada with mild air. This pattern this month as far as Pac/ATL is about as close to December 2001 or 2012 as you can get.

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

I felt they were great last winter as far as seeing the pattern 10 plus days out. The prior winter as well as 22-23 they were very bad.

I'm trying to figure out what 9.5 or so event is at -1.2...probably one of the 2010-2011 events. Dec 84 and Dec 90 clearly present there as the 6 and 7 inch events.

The NAO thing does not seem to hold much weight in the last 30 years. We have had quite a few very negative Octobers and most of those winters ended up +, obviously most winters have been + so many positive Octobers had positive NAO winters too. The most positive thing so far continues to be the NATL SST anomalies

3km NAM looks to be only 12 or 06Z run that has any idea based on current radar but even it looks like it may not be aggressive enough with the NW push today

I do believe there is some correlation historically to that feature being there in mid October to the winter though its better to see it now than on 11/30. In 1993 I think it was basically there the entire period from about 10/15-12/15 before the pattern totally flipped

This forum would be in meltdown mode right now if the 00 EPS/GEFS pattern in the GOA/AK was being shown in December or January

I think maybe like last year we might have lucked out with the -PDO peaking too early. Its hard to sustain a -3 or 4 from July-August through an entire winter. Last year it basically bottomed out in October and then it was -1 during the winter. Could see the same thing happen again though I'd be wary of it not averaging slightly more negative than last winter.

This activity might ultimately be going off a bit too early, may result in less convection in the end. I still see no LTG strikes over NJ thus far or maybe just 1-2

I think most activity today is SW NJ back into the DC area. There may be some cells north of Trenton up through the NYC area but not sure its widespread at all.

LGA airport 1.25 this hour