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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The airmass believe it or not is better than it was with the last event. At least to start. Its 32/13 on the NAM at 12Z. The bigger risk with this is it just is largely too far north in the end.
  2. SnowGoose69
    Europe has not been cold in seemingly forever in winter. Thats the pattern that really gets them cold, though they did well in 09-10 and 10-11 (early) with a W based -NAO, overall the e based one is better though.
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah this just is not a cold pattern for the west at all really. The Bering Sea ridge and subsequent trof are too far west. Its a fine line for them, a 700 mile shift east would produce December 1990 results for them but as of now too much Pac air is getting into that trof so they're just not cold and won't be any time soon
  4. SnowGoose69
    00 and 97 I think also went pretty strong +PNA I think but can’t recall if they were negative in December or not. I want to say they were not
  5. SnowGoose69
    It’s going to be a battle in January I think of which one gives in first. If it’s the NAO winter is probably done for if we assume we get the February most expect we do based on the IOD/ENSO. If it’s the PNA maybe we can get a crazy 2-3 weeks. I’d still lean towards February probably being bad but in La Niña to El Niño transition years we’ve seen March sometimes be good
  6. SnowGoose69
    Thats like a -7 NAO on the GFS at 300. I'm sure the GEFS will look different.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Chances are those will be wrong. The evolution looks more like an El Nino than anything else as late January looks like the transition you'd often see begin to happen in that type of winter. I highly doubt we have a cold +PNA February
  8. SnowGoose69
    They seem to think we're in an El Nino
  9. SnowGoose69
    As long as Canada stays cold this flips quickly if the PNA goes positive if the other indices largely remain where they are. If somehow though we get a week or 2 of a GOA vortex we're probably done til 1/20 at least. No signs of that though
  10. SnowGoose69
    It shows you how a 500 mile difference in feature placement changes everything. The first 2 weeks of December 2010 you can take all those features and shift them 500 miles west and that was basically the pattern. We did not get any big or notable snows though but we were very cold.
  11. SnowGoose69
    We probably need some heavy changes if we're gonna get that 12th straight La Nina +PNA Jan after a -PNA Dec. I don't see a -2.5 on 12/31 flipping to positive before 1/10 or 1/15. Does not mean we won't see cold and snow though if the AO/NAO are negative
  12. SnowGoose69
    That looks like a lock. Unfortunately if the PNA is still -2 to -3 that won't work, even getting it to 0 is ideal
  13. SnowGoose69
    Well hopefully the GEFS idea of the SER linking with the NAO block does not happen because by the end of the run we have a decent -NAO
  14. SnowGoose69
    They got 2.8 last year and it did not turn out well
  15. SnowGoose69
    JFK broke the record from 12/14/2003 by 0.1
  16. SnowGoose69
    They actually came in 0.1 higher than LGA. You can see a noticeable dip in accumulations in NE NJ near NYC into Queens/Brooklyn. Some of that was the heat island but some also was this area got hit by subsidence somewhat. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html
  17. SnowGoose69
    I think they'll be right near 3-3.5
  18. SnowGoose69
    They weren’t that far off. I got 1.6 at 9am. I was surprised how much it melted or must have been melting. My guess is they’ll end around 2.1 to 2.4
  19. SnowGoose69
    .11 liquid since. Probably about 8 or 10:1 so I'd say yeah they have to be near 3.5
  20. SnowGoose69
    All stations will be trying to break the 12/14/03 daily record tomorrow. Not sure any do it, will need over 4.5 to do so except for JFK
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now. Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes
  22. SnowGoose69
    00Z HREF mean is pretty close to the Euro idea...max is in same zone where it seems to want to go like Dover-Monmouth for the highest amounts https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_max&sector=ne
  23. SnowGoose69
    I find it funny all top 3 CIPS analogs (12/5/92, 12/8/06 12/13/86) are sort of close at 500, every one was a nothing event with no snow anywhere from what I can tell, 12/5/92 was an epic bust, we had WSWs out down here and saw nothing, I think they actually dropped them late afternoon on 12/5 after putting them out at 4-5pm on 12/4.
  24. SnowGoose69
    The ICON I swear has ideas close to the end result on some events in the 120-150 range when the GFS/CMC are just totally lost but it might just be selective memory by me or the fact at that range its made a few hits and I remember them. The NAM used to have biases/tendencies at 72-84 that gave you a feel for things but its been a good 8-10 years now since those worked. I think upgrades to it ended that and now it often just shows oddball things but I can never find consistent biases anymore like I used to.
  25. SnowGoose69
    The Euro has struggled in the NE on systems that have more NRN and SRN stream interaction or phasing in recent years. I am less concerned about it falling flat on its face with a system like this. But we still have a ways to go.
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