SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SnowGoose69 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
The Op Euro still does seem to do wild stuff at times, especially the 18Z runs, the 06z I seem to notice it less but its been noticeable that its wacky at times at 18z to me. I don't see that issue as much anymore with the NAM/RGEM. I see it with the GFS at times but way less than we'd see 15-20-25 years ago. -
This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east. Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss. That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right. This one however is subject to big moves still. I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles.
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To be fair it is due for a win. Its been 3 winters I think since it has had a big score. It did well for awhile there pre most recent Euro and CMC upgrade but since those 2 got upgraded 2-3 years back and its not made a hit.
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I'm not surprised the GFS is not caving yet, it always is stubborn til usually the final 60-72 hours or so though in the last few years its sometimes given up a bit earlier
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This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was. Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance.
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the NAM is in essence useless beyond 48-60, it can do anything possible beyond that and you cannot really put faith in it at all being right or not.
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Most also show another lead wave Saturday in the southern MA or SE which is a problem too
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SnowGoose69 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
That final panel is like 2/1989 exactly. I always say if you see that you better have a very strong -NAO. 12/26/10 was close to that too but not same orientation. The ridge was taller -
I think this is either gone or established as a likely impact by this time Thursday. There should be a solid move towards one idea or another by then
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SnowGoose69 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
I'd have this event as highly likely nothing right now if the initial storm Friday was more of a pure coastal low, but because its more GL low transferring I am not quite as worried about the whole baroclinic zone/trof etc being forced east making it AS hard for the followup system to get going. I am still leaning more than slightly though that this thing whiffs. -
I am still going for a miss at the moment. But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs
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Thats what I took from it. I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours
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The first system does not concern me too much here because its more a late Miller B type transfer. If it was a pure coastal or an earlier transfer way south I'd be more concerned about the Sunday storm ending up flat or not happening. As a matter of fact we probably do not want the Friday event to have the primary/Lakes low be too strong because I think the leftover result if that happens may be Sunday being more a risk to do what the AIGFS had been showing on some runs yesterday
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Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great. It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago.
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AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux. ICON was going to be well south and flat this run.
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This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building. Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this. I think it'll be Thursday before we know much
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Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it
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I think this will be weak-moderate. The CFs/Euro have been too strong on forecasting ENSO events. I tend to go more with the ENSO model average...right now they barely have this even making it to 1.0....regardless mostly El Nino summers as you say are pretty cool here in the east.
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I'm amazed in 02-03 it did not totally freeze
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Tomorrow night looks a bit too windy, if it was not I think many places would go below 0 outside urban areas Monday AM.
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Yeah it looked done. My co-worker walked in at 6 and was really upset about his forecast from the evening prior thinking it was going to bust. Around 10pm he finally began to talk again lol, but it was dead silence til I finally said I think you're gonna be good
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That late capture with the upper low really saved us. That was quite close to busting west of central Long Island til the last minute. Similar to December 2009
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33 years ago a setup that had some similarities to this weekend, synoptics of the snow were not the same, was more a weak surface feature forming as the arctic boundary came south. 2-5 inches fell, mostly from the CT coast/NJ/NY border south with little north of there. Forecast was T-1 inch and it just kept snowing til like 3-4pm. Setup looked like one that was a classic below 0 setup, but only HPN made it to 0. ISP got to 2. Airmass just was not quite cold enough aloft despite the snowpack. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0206.php https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0207.php
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Its quite amazing how much that SER feature has flattened from 2/11-2/13 the last couple of days, even for places way down south, its like 2/09 and 10 are now the only really much above days in there
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One thing I have definitely noticed with the AI models beyond 120 is they tend to deviate less wildly from their ensemble average. The GFS/Euro Op have been showing December 2015 like ridges the last 2 days late in their runs at times. The AI GFS/Euro seem to look way more like the ensemble mean and that has been the case most of the winter.
