SnowGoose69

As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time. You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter

Jan/Feb 90 was the highest AO/NAO ever I think other than Jan/Feb 1989. I still think its the record now though 2018 or 2020 may have surpassed it. In general there's been tendencies near the solar max if you have a persistently -AO/NAO in Nov/Dec it can be a problematic issue in Jan/Feb where it swings wildly to be strongly positive. We saw this a bit in 2000-01 too, the AO remained negative in Jan/Feb but the NAO went significantly positive the remainder of the winter.

There was just a ton of bad luck. It wasn’t so much the winter patterns were bad outside of 82-83 84-85 and 88-89. Even 89-90 December was decent it was just that everything got suppressed

I guess the snow total was skewed by the 4/1 event. Overall it was a strange winter because indice wise it was good in December and January. There was just no snow or it was all inland

The 90s were odd depending where you were. 92-93 and 96-97 sucked in NYC and the metro but basically everywhere else in the northeast they were good winters. 93-94 95-96 were the only two that were really universally good winters for snow most areas. At least most agree that 90-91 91-92 94-95 97-98 sucked everywhere though

Its December depiction makes sense to me, not sure about Jan/Feb. The Feb anomaly does not look much like any recent Nina or neutral composite we've seen. It looks more like a raging progressive Pac jet type pattern. If that type of setup verified I think the SER would be much stronger in the east

2011-2012 and 2001-2002 to me are always automatic tosses, those were just wild anomalies in neutral winters that just can never be used as analogs. Its similar to how 95-96, at least as far as precip anomalies should never be considered heavily, temp wise that winter was not especially cold in the east despite many thinking it was.

Yeah I think 2018 was the year where in southeast parts of the US all the trees opened and there was major damage from frosts in March and April

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though. It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

The last minute or two I think they are partially in the eye. Conditions seemed to have improved a bit

Definitely picked up as soon as winds flipped more NW from the ENE

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

Moving more E of N now, MBJ could possibly miss the west eye wall if it kept moving more NE

Likely just outside the eyewall but those winds still look maybe 70-90mph

Was just thinking he might be in that eye for a bit, should be close to fully clear in it

Some claimed it under went a "MERC" this morning where the two eyewalls merged but did not have the typical replacement. Not sure if thats a real thing or not

Bad tracks not just for the population but those both hit resort areas hard. Most of them are on the western 1/4 of the island so thats a loss of a big portion of their economy for this winter probably

Watch the next 2 weeks. GEFS pulling the Ole 21-22/22-23/23-24 thing D12 plus right now where it says nahhh you don't to the GEPS/EPS regarding the Pacific. It did that at times last winter too but due to the poleward AK ridge it was wrong almost every if not every time. This could give us some idea where this winter is going, at least early if the GEPS/EPS end up winning this one if it remains a persistent difference in the models the next few days. I will say that over the last 10 days or so all of the ensembles have somewhat lost the battle as we are definitely still much more GOA/AK vortex heavy than we were on their forecasts back 10 days ago, so they certainly rushed the change.

Didn't we have a massive NF warm pool in Nov/Dec 2000 though? I think that its more the lack of a 50/50 low for some reason that we keep seeing that. We saw it less often last winter however when we had the -NAO because that vortex was there to prevent it from happening.

Thats not too surprising given the recent combo of a strong west based -NAO and AK vortex flooding W Canada with mild air. This pattern this month as far as Pac/ATL is about as close to December 2001 or 2012 as you can get.

The 18z Euro AI is almost exactly the 11pm NHC track

I felt they were great last winter as far as seeing the pattern 10 plus days out. The prior winter as well as 22-23 they were very bad.

I'm trying to figure out what 9.5 or so event is at -1.2...probably one of the 2010-2011 events. Dec 84 and Dec 90 clearly present there as the 6 and 7 inch events.

The NAO thing does not seem to hold much weight in the last 30 years. We have had quite a few very negative Octobers and most of those winters ended up +, obviously most winters have been + so many positive Octobers had positive NAO winters too. The most positive thing so far continues to be the NATL SST anomalies

3km NAM looks to be only 12 or 06Z run that has any idea based on current radar but even it looks like it may not be aggressive enough with the NW push today