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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    None of these really fit. Many of those events surprisingly did jackpot areas just inland a bit but the systems were not this deep. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2026022100&map=thbCOOP72
  2. SnowGoose69
    The sustained winds on the 18Z GFS MOS are crazy. Its not often you see 30s on there. MOS guidance tends to run low on sustained winds often times in deep lows.
  3. SnowGoose69
    I was half joking when I said the GFS was due to score one of these hits, looks like it finally did but to a degree it was right for the wrong reason. This is a rare period historically to see big snow events here and you can see that on the daily snow records on 2/22 and 2/23, mostly all 6 inches or lower.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Its on Weatherbell but there is only a 00Z and 12Z run there. I am not sure if some websites have an 18 and 06
  5. SnowGoose69
    We’ll see what ends up happening in the end but DT’s post about the NWS soundings a few days back could have something to do with it because we’ve seen issues all winter
  6. SnowGoose69
    The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board. Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro
  7. SnowGoose69
    The AI EURO has been a bit more waffly the last 3-4 events beyond like 60 hours. I felt through February it never moved once on anything inside like 108. The systems this month its definitely bit more bouncy
  8. SnowGoose69
    I do think probably this has a west edge extreme maybe like December 09 or so as far as big amounts. I think even if it works out something like 50-75 miles west of the 18z Euro Op is probably the best doable at this point.
  9. SnowGoose69
    The Op Euro still does seem to do wild stuff at times, especially the 18Z runs, the 06z I seem to notice it less but its been noticeable that its wacky at times at 18z to me. I don't see that issue as much anymore with the NAM/RGEM. I see it with the GFS at times but way less than we'd see 15-20-25 years ago.
  10. SnowGoose69
    This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east. Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss. That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right. This one however is subject to big moves still. I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles.
  11. SnowGoose69
    To be fair it is due for a win. Its been 3 winters I think since it has had a big score. It did well for awhile there pre most recent Euro and CMC upgrade but since those 2 got upgraded 2-3 years back and its not made a hit.
  12. SnowGoose69
    I'm not surprised the GFS is not caving yet, it always is stubborn til usually the final 60-72 hours or so though in the last few years its sometimes given up a bit earlier
  13. SnowGoose69
    This one is not as dead at this range as the system 3 or so weeks back was. Its pretty dead but I'd still give it a 25% chance.
  14. SnowGoose69
    the NAM is in essence useless beyond 48-60, it can do anything possible beyond that and you cannot really put faith in it at all being right or not.
  15. SnowGoose69
    Most also show another lead wave Saturday in the southern MA or SE which is a problem too
  16. SnowGoose69
    That final panel is like 2/1989 exactly. I always say if you see that you better have a very strong -NAO. 12/26/10 was close to that too but not same orientation. The ridge was taller
  17. SnowGoose69
    I think this is either gone or established as a likely impact by this time Thursday. There should be a solid move towards one idea or another by then
  18. SnowGoose69
    I'd have this event as highly likely nothing right now if the initial storm Friday was more of a pure coastal low, but because its more GL low transferring I am not quite as worried about the whole baroclinic zone/trof etc being forced east making it AS hard for the followup system to get going. I am still leaning more than slightly though that this thing whiffs.
  19. SnowGoose69
    I am still going for a miss at the moment. But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs
  20. SnowGoose69
    Thats what I took from it. I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours
  21. SnowGoose69
    The first system does not concern me too much here because its more a late Miller B type transfer. If it was a pure coastal or an earlier transfer way south I'd be more concerned about the Sunday storm ending up flat or not happening. As a matter of fact we probably do not want the Friday event to have the primary/Lakes low be too strong because I think the leftover result if that happens may be Sunday being more a risk to do what the AIGFS had been showing on some runs yesterday
  22. SnowGoose69
    Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great. It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago.
  23. SnowGoose69
    AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux. ICON was going to be well south and flat this run.
  24. SnowGoose69
    This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building. Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this. I think it'll be Thursday before we know much
  25. SnowGoose69
    Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it
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