SnowGoose69

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time. NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters. There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat. 88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89

I think the look has gone more suppressive for sure in the 12/6-12/12 period. I think after that the pattern could go active again but that period may be quiet across most of the country.

Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last I heard the NAM may run for another year or so. Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events. The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels. The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

Next year the RRFS is supposed to replace it

Yeah not impressed with that one but there's a ton of moving pieces still

Might have put Putnam/Rockland in there but can always be added tomorrow

The Euro has nailed the last 2 events in the Upper Midwest, I'll say that much. But this is a totally different setup and area of the country.

The GEFS is as 96-97 as it gets lol. That was more or less the pattern that winter. The EPO ridge was largely too far west in Dec/Feb so we had continued SER issues, we did go very January 99 in January but it was just mostly cold and dry.

The RRFS looks reasonable with 2-4 or 3-5 up that way which is good news because it'll be the NAM replacement within a year.

Forgot about that storm, that was one of the craziest cases I remember where the setup was almost perfect and it rained. Many of us at that point felt we were headed for another 97-98

This probably is a snow event for NYC in January, even without a true high to the north but 12/2 is too early for that setup. The temps are cold enough but the DPs are not due to the airmass in place

NW/Illinois and Mich State/Maryland are going to be interesting games. Looks like OSU/Mich will be mostly done before its impactful

Usually anything from like 1-3 to 3-5 is most common. Some rare instances where 6-7 has occurred for the coast like February 2008 November 2018 December 1990 but those usually consist of one of two scenarios. Weak waves vs amping lows or the system approaches more from down in the Carolinas vs the Tennessee or Ohio Valley.

Unfortunately the classic SWFE has become somewhat of a lost thing in recent years much like the clipper and coastal track have seemed to. I think it’s a product of stale highs due to warming in Canada coupled with systems having a tendency to want to overamp more in that setup vs just remain weak flat waves bumping into highs, I can’t remember the last case of that we had. We have seen more SWFEs have long duration periods of sleet which 20-30 years ago almost never happened. They were usually snow to rain 9 out of 10 times

Faster evolution. That’s the key here really. I don’t believe that scenario in early December would remain all snow even if that exact track panned out but the key here really is get that second system to develop as fast behind the first as it can while the high is still in decent position.

Yeah first system being the lakes storm which is in essence a glorified FROPA here. That system over the last 8-10 days has gone from a Midwest cutter to a solid Lakes cutter to a weak lakes low. This is what mostly led to the failed SER. That SER shown 10 days ago was a product of that assumed massive cutter.

The first storm continuing to gradually become strung out and flatter is leading to the second one being more likely to be a hit. 2-3 days ago I felt the second system was a miss but not so much anymore. That said, keeping with the theme of recent years and given the flow, go weaker on that one too. I believe there is a decent chance for the 2nd storm to be snow to rain, even to the coast if everything times out correctly but if it’s too late and the high begins to slide offshore it won’t happen

GEFS/GEPS in a snap shot mindset do not look great D14-16, but they're in the process it seems of evolving to something different. A ton likely depends on where the MJO goes

Not surprised to see it was during a Nino too where Dec tends to lean milder anyway. I think we had a small snow event in SNE a few days prior to that too.

I think a big part of the reason we lost the SER in early Dec is the storm system D5-6 ended up much less amped and not like a bomb models shows 3-4-5 days ago. Now of course they try to do the same thing with the ensuing storm, once again I am inclined to lean flatter as that has been the trend seemingly forever. If we don't get a monster cutter into the Lakes or MW the SER will keep verifying weaker in the medium range. The question is if the LR is going too weak on it. If we do blast hard into phase 8, that will certainly help

It looks transient and more like a reshuffle though on the GEPS/EPS, you can see D15-16 already it seems a ridge is trying to begin popping again in W Canada or along the coast. I'd be surprised if we have that rabid of an MJO wave going into 8 that we see a pattern like that, though once in a great while we've seen a raging -PNA/+AO/NAO with a phase 8 MJO, I think maybe January of 1990 we did, but I'm not sure if its ever been with a wave potentially that strong.

This is about as strong a look we've seen for it to get into phase 8 in several years. I'd be surprised if it did not get there, and yeah, ensembles just never see a moderate-strong MJO wave impacts it seems. Its why so often here when we see a raging 3-4-5 forecast but the D16 ensembles look like January 94 you more or less know that look will be way off if that 3-4-5 wave verified.