SnowGoose69

I think more a general rule that applies is if January is way above normal there are almost no cases of the winter being snowy. That is really the only rule I think that applies. I just do not know though how many below normal Decembers with above normal snow saw torch Januarys though. Off memory I don't recall any, maybe 2005-06? 1989 obviously was crazy cold but had no snow albeit we had 1 very close call where like POU/BDL/BDR saw 5-10 inches so these things are somewhat relative as close calls either way could have resulted in years fitting/not fitting into analogs.

I'd have tossed it in a second 3-4-5 winters ago but given the PDO decline back near neutral these past 2 winters I am inclined to trust it more on the W-Coast/Canada/AK ideas these days over the GEFS as its outperformed it there now the last 1 1/2 cold seasons

It is quite amazing how the last 5-6 cycles the wild shift the GEFS/GEPS have made while the EPS seemingly has not moved for 5 days. The GEPS now moved to the GEFS idea from 1-2 days ago while the GEFS in the 8-12 day range sort of moved to what the ECAIFS/EPS was showing in that period but then immediately goes back to trying to do post D12 what it was doing yesterday beyond D8 lol

A strong El Nino December would rarely have those anomalies from ND into the Lakes, they'd normally be above normal. Sometimes the immediate EC can be below but El Nino Decembers, even weak to moderate ones often are not cold anywhere except the Deep South and SE and that is often just a relativity thing where a place like ATL/BNA might average -1 largely due to lots of overcast and rainy days but not exactly have a ton of days in the 40s or below or nights below 32. An El Nino January or February can have that type of departure map though

Well the GEFS the last 2-3 runs is really moving towards the GEPS/EPS in the D8-10 period ejecting the trof/building the ridge out near the west coast.

Up until last winter the GEFS was owning the EPS on Pac based stuff for like 5-6 years in the long range, that changed last winter and so far this winter that trend has continued. What has happened though the past winter and a half now is the GEFS is owning the EPS long range on the NAO stuff it seems so maybe lean towards each idea on both with that

Historics argue we are in a real good spot next winter. The weakening PDO the past two winters now coupled with the La Nina strength as of 12/31 in 3.4 argues we would see a Nino somewhere in the 0.5-1.2 range next winter and it would likely be able to couple with the atmosphere vs the 18-19 event. There has never been a Nino over 1.2 the ensuing winter when we've had Nina numbers where they were on 12/31. Almost all of the Mod-Strong events had either cold neutral or just below that.

IMO it never made sense with the EPO spike which many of the individual members showed and the GEPS/GEFS had.

My friend is trying to convince me to go. We have not been back up there for snow in like 20 years. The HREF probs show is mostly where you mention though the 12Z high res guidance models today now largely want to focus it more N of there til tomorrow which is a bit of a delay

I'll take the +PNA though as it can be a harder pattern to dislodge. My concern with a -EPO and just a neutral or slightly -PNA would be that the EPO ridge retrogrades by late month and its a raging SER in February. Many analogs suggest that anyway but if you can establish a +1 or 2 PNA that sometimes is a much more difficult setup to just flip out of, you could probably carry this change into the first 2 weeks of February if that happened. Otherwise we might just be seeing a 1/15-1/27 flip and that might pretty much be all after that til late February or early March.

I still hold to 1/12-1/14 before any big change happens. Looks more and more likely it is around that time.

Safe to say one of the GEFS or EPS/GEPS will end up badly wrong on their PNA forecasts

I'd still watch NYE with the FROPA, the RGEM shows what can and has happened before with those setups, a small surface low forming off the coast on the front and some areas, especially S and E portions can see accumulating snow

Next 5-7 days I don't see anything but something could show up after 1/4 or 1/5. Still think 1/10 or 1/12 and after is where the major risk begins

Probably the longer it takes the +PNA to develop the less February ends up mild because it tends to be a difficult pattern to flip out of rapidly, so if it does not establish til around 1/15 I could see it being 2/10 or 2/15 before we really begin to get that setup. In recent really mild Februarys in the La Nina years January has tended to be cold from the very beginning. I think outside of the Lakes/NE its going to be 1/12 or so til we see the cold anomalies get down into the SE/TN Valley/Plains

Another narrow miss of the 79 from 1991 today. Just seems to me 80 is not possible there in December unless its full sunshine and deep WSW flow. Today was just a bit too cloudy. Tomorrow definitely too many clouds so probably 73-75 is best that could happen.

Does not happen often. 93/94 obviously 2/8 and 2/11 is the most memorable case. 95-96 I do not recall any really, seemed like the close together events were small and melted and the big ones had separation and we had a massive thaw too. 09-10 I think had a couple of instances.

The 18Z RRFS was pretty close on the sleet idea too. It had the line briefly over NYC in the evening for an hour or two. So at least it seems the RRFS is better than the HRRR on warm advection aloft.

I think they also use an estimate for the daily snowfall as they do not measure at both 12am and 1am. They did for awhile but for the last 4-5 years have stopped doing that. The official daily total was 1.7 I think. I have no idea what they used to do pre 92-93. I was told years back they just had the HMT/Intern drive up to a spot in the park from the NWS office at Rockefeller and measure at 12/1/7/1/7 respectively.

This has to be the first time in ages I can recall the Euro/NAM both actually getting QPF right in a storm, in general they're insanely too dry/wet respectively. Its strange how both somehow got it right the QPF would be way lower than many other guidance parameters had

JB with yet another totally random X post lol. He says only 5 Januarys since 75 with the MJO spending 23 or more days in the null phase. All were quite cold in the East/MW/Plains. 80 82 96 00 03. Problem with that post is who knows if the BOMM/EPS are possibly accurate out that far and only 1 of those 5 years comes close to our current ENSO (96)

Hard to say. The GEFS really looks nothing like the EPS/GEPS. I think at some point after 1/12-1/15 we go into a pattern than might be more suppression risk but not sure before that.

You don’t usually see widespread “clear air busts” anymore these days. These types of cases where a small sector of the impact region gets screwed is more common vs the entire storm taking a track 100 miles off at the last second

Oddly enough snow growth based on ASOS reports relative to radar echoes and ground reports seems good. You would not think thats the case given the area went over to sleet for a time though.

That area might actually hit LI. I still think places as far west as the Nassau/Suffolk border could do well but I'd think it'll swing too far E for NYC and you have to expect given its coming from the NNW some degree of downslope will happen