SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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If you look back at the 12Z runs as of 19Z the 3km NAM/Euro/HRRR seem to be the closest, both are a bit too slow down in SE MD advancing the snow but not by much. The high res GFS is way too far N in W PA and the RGEM is too far south in W PA. The difference is the HRRR just does not advance the snow from the coast up as far N overnight as those other 2 models do
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Its been south all winter it seems on many storms, not just the ones that impact the NE either.
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Saturday could easily be nothing, I think our best shot there is keep with the progressive tendency of the winter and have that first system be flat and quick so we force the baroclinic zone and trof more east and the follow up wave could be snow. Its going to take alot of work but at this range its possible
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Its hard to puck a ton of stock in the NAM given how bad for example its 12Z run from yesterday is currently verifying at hour 27. It had snow into SW PA and basically no snow in coastal VA.
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The warm nose was pretty stubborn all night in the metro in that one. I think LGA saw way more snow than the S shore of LI did. I drove later that day from LI to Florida (NY, not Florida Florida) and there like 10 inches up there
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They're gonna mix probably
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The PV orientation if I recall right in Canada was far east and elongated which prevented it. Also we had more of a neutral NAO and -AO.
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The pattern honestly screams suppression post 2/17 or so but not totally sure I buy it
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The window to me is 2/17-2/23, after that if you even take the ensemble pattern verbatim and assume the Pac Jet is underdone the ridge again may end up too far east and we'll be cool and dry.
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I think 3-4 is the best case still southern parts of our area. The next storm is just way too amped up that even inland areas may be ZR or sleet mostly, that setup is good as far as high placement but you need a weak wave not a jacked up system.
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We were not going to see a real blockbuster potential til post 2/17 or so when the PNA goes positive.
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The block is just too far north, would not have mattered even back then if it was that far up
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Might not inland, depends on how strong the system is, exactly where that high is positioned etc. The 18Z RGEM high position not sure anyone inland goes over to rain really
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Thursday would be decent if the system was not so amped up. Its one of those SSW approachers with the high to our north but its just way to zonked right now the coast to see much snow.
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Its funny how it mishandled yesterday here so similarly to how it mishandled the southern snow event that gave ATL 3-4 inches a few weeks back. In both cases it was insanely far north inside the final 12-18 hours and practically dry slotted areas where the most snow fell. I know some of the SNE forum posters have said in the case of systems that are more dynamic with WAA it can go overboard sometimes and handles the more modest intensity storms better
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One thing to watch on that is the HRRR as it comes into range on this, its usually been able to see those jet induced areas of snow, sort of picked it up on the event last time which was mostly well to our south
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The mean is still like 2.7 at JFK because about 12 of the EPS members are pretty amped still.
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More just fast/progressive flow. There is confluence stretched form NNE back to the Upper Midwest/Canada border which likely stops this from getting up to say BOS. The north movement with this the last 2 days is a combo I think of the shortwave that you see crossing Quebec into NRN Maine and NB near 50 hours out being faster and out of the way and likely also the next system diving down into the Rockies/high plains possibly pumping the SE ridge a bit more downstream.
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This sort of event often has a band of frontogenesis induced heavier snow up near the north fringe of the system. Ratios could also be 12-15:1 with this, really need .20-.30 liquid to get this to be possibility of something more significant
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The 06z UKIE and AI went back south a bit, the high res GFS seems to indicate the 12Z GFS won't move, not a surprise to me as this is a storm that the GFS probably would be south of everything else but I don't think anything over 1-4 is realistic right now and the 4s would be SI/JFK.
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The setup is becoming crazily complicated now, they are almost involving 2 waves which is partially why this has come north and now the big system behind it is trending way less "cutty" at 00Z which I think most agreed would happen since this pattern is not producing a Great Lakes bomb
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NYC/LGA reported .20 liquid but just 1 inch this hour so ratios may have dropped to 7:-8:1 as can happen before a changeover
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Yeah its real heavy now, LGA .08 liquid already this hour, easily could be 2 inches this hour
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CPCantmeasure might have work cut out tomorrow AM, this is a classic case where they'll come in with a crazy low total because the sleet will compact it before the 1am measurement
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Its that small subsidence zone between the two intense areas, will probably go all snow again when that area in WRN SI up through N-C NJ crosses, after that clears I think it goes all sleet
