SnowGoose69

Main reason I want this to happen is it increases the odds the Giants lose a game that is very winnable....

That said there is a risk of a rainer, at least down where I am and the SE parts of the MA forum. I think Forky was maybe hinting at that in one of his posts and I have seen some of the Mets on X indicate that as well, the look over the GL region at 500 is indicative of that but I think the fast flow and overall positive tilt to that trof makes it a remote possibility. In the days of slower Pac flow this one to me would have much higher rain risks at this stage.

Its another 7 days before we have any idea where early January is going. I currently still side towards this warmup is brief from the Lakes to the NE and NRN MA. May be longer for the TN Valley/SE but still their warmup will be nothing compared to 2015 or 2021, I would bet even places like TN/GA/SC struggle to get much above upper 60s as that is a sneaky setup where highs will keep semi wedging down in there.

Yeah I still lean towards a miss being more likely out of all the possibilities. Once again I almost would rather be in the northern MA right now if you forced me to take a stand one way or another. There is a chance this could get its act together in time that C-SNJ or the PHL area could get a few inches and NYC to BOS could miss out.

My ex was watching one of those 10 years ago and I almost got enraged. I may still have the photo on my phone somewhere, they showed a blizzard setup as the main character was watching TV and the map of the lows/highs and track made zero sense, stuff was moving the wrong way

Still think we got another 36 hours or so til Sunday is figured out. There continues to be a risk of anything from C-1 inch, several inches, a rainer, or a miss completely. I am still not that sold on any major warmup, unfortunately there may be a 3-5 stretch that hits the XMas window dead on but until that WPO as Don has pointed out goes positive there is a chance that ridging isn't extended to the E Coast or the NE for more than just a brief period. The EPO pop too on the EPS drops back towards neutral by 12/25

GFSAI has a storm off Nantucket at 114

Yeah was coming to say this. Even the NAM was that way though at 84 the NAM is a mess anyway most times

Despite the change on the 18Z runs the ingredients for this are still in no man’s land. This was stated by someone on the SNE forum too. I think this will change about two times over in the next 36-48 hours. There is even a risk for this thing to be a rainer honestly given the setup but I’d still lean towards a miss being the more likely fail

IMO this is a classic setup the GFS would win. In La Nina years or any case where you have any heavy northern stream involvement or fast flow if its squashing a system it tends to be right. Its more often owned on Miller As or systems where you've got more southern stream action

I do know the NWS office reported they've begun to mix...I think the line may stall or even settle back SW soon. Not sure it'll make it to the immediate metro except the S side near the airport for awhile.

They'll still likely beat OU. Albeit, OU caught a huge break not getting MIA/ND. Those teams even vs their D would post 25-30 probably which would be too much for OU to overcome, Bama they might be able to defend their way out of it

The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles. Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though

There has been many cases in the last 2-3 winters where both the GEFS/EPS show a pattern at like D12-16 that seemingly not a single Op run over that few days ever shows, if anything its the reverse and then the Op idea verifies more 2 weeks later. Not sure why that would happen, it shouldn't but I have seen it more than you'd think is normal.

Both GEFS runs and the GEPS today seemed to get cold feet on the warmup after 300 hours, the EPS not as much

I am surprised nobody posted the 18Z GFS at 360

It’s hard to know now because ensembles suck with this pattern. When you look at many of the individual members on days 10-16 you can see they are actually quite cold in the east. We are getting skewing on many ensemble averages by some members that crank raging zonal patterns by trying to place the ridge all the way to the east coast. Probably need to see the WPO go positive in order to have this totally come off the rails

I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13. Look at 162 hours today its not even close. There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.

I always mention the April 2000 NY snow event where ALB went from 78 to 14 inches next day and it mostly fell from 8am-2pm too in mid April

I’d be surprised if there was any significant warmup in the east given the MJO wave strength. We’ve seen before beyond D8-10 ensembles often can show a pattern that doesn’t really resemble what the expected MJO phase will be and then once you get closer it does. We’ve seen many maps like the above at day 15 when we have a strong wave in 3 or 4 and we know it’s going to be wrong

Its just really a bunch of clippers

I feel like since 2010 just about every December down there has been warm minus 2020/2024

Down in the SE US Dec 2023 was not as warm as 2019. 2023 the warmth was worse across the Lakes/UW and NE

Compared to December 2015, 2021, 2019 its still an ice box though

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time. NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters. There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat. 88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89