SnowGoose69
-
Posts
16,742 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnowGoose69
-
“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SnowGoose69 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
That final panel is like 2/1989 exactly. I always say if you see that you better have a very strong -NAO. 12/26/10 was close to that too but not same orientation. The ridge was taller -
I think this is either gone or established as a likely impact by this time Thursday. There should be a solid move towards one idea or another by then
-
“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
SnowGoose69 replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
I'd have this event as highly likely nothing right now if the initial storm Friday was more of a pure coastal low, but because its more GL low transferring I am not quite as worried about the whole baroclinic zone/trof etc being forced east making it AS hard for the followup system to get going. I am still leaning more than slightly though that this thing whiffs. -
I am still going for a miss at the moment. But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs
-
Thats what I took from it. I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours
-
The first system does not concern me too much here because its more a late Miller B type transfer. If it was a pure coastal or an earlier transfer way south I'd be more concerned about the Sunday storm ending up flat or not happening. As a matter of fact we probably do not want the Friday event to have the primary/Lakes low be too strong because I think the leftover result if that happens may be Sunday being more a risk to do what the AIGFS had been showing on some runs yesterday
-
Inside 120, beyond 120 its been overall not great. It was not too good on this last event, had us getting almost nothing til 2 days ago.
-
AIGFS is like a 2/1995 redux. ICON was going to be well south and flat this run.
-
This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building. Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this. I think it'll be Thursday before we know much
-
Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it
-
I think this will be weak-moderate. The CFs/Euro have been too strong on forecasting ENSO events. I tend to go more with the ENSO model average...right now they barely have this even making it to 1.0....regardless mostly El Nino summers as you say are pretty cool here in the east.
-
I'm amazed in 02-03 it did not totally freeze
-
Tomorrow night looks a bit too windy, if it was not I think many places would go below 0 outside urban areas Monday AM.
-
Yeah it looked done. My co-worker walked in at 6 and was really upset about his forecast from the evening prior thinking it was going to bust. Around 10pm he finally began to talk again lol, but it was dead silence til I finally said I think you're gonna be good
-
That late capture with the upper low really saved us. That was quite close to busting west of central Long Island til the last minute. Similar to December 2009
-
33 years ago a setup that had some similarities to this weekend, synoptics of the snow were not the same, was more a weak surface feature forming as the arctic boundary came south. 2-5 inches fell, mostly from the CT coast/NJ/NY border south with little north of there. Forecast was T-1 inch and it just kept snowing til like 3-4pm. Setup looked like one that was a classic below 0 setup, but only HPN made it to 0. ISP got to 2. Airmass just was not quite cold enough aloft despite the snowpack. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0206.php https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0207.php
-
Its quite amazing how much that SER feature has flattened from 2/11-2/13 the last couple of days, even for places way down south, its like 2/09 and 10 are now the only really much above days in there
-
One thing I have definitely noticed with the AI models beyond 120 is they tend to deviate less wildly from their ensemble average. The GFS/Euro Op have been showing December 2015 like ridges the last 2 days late in their runs at times. The AI GFS/Euro seem to look way more like the ensemble mean and that has been the case most of the winter.
-
I felt like all El Nino summers here have been at best average. I just checked and since the 80s only 2002 and 2018 were above normal and that was by 0.2 and skewed mostly by August. I was surprised to see 1991 was not above normal. Its common to see places nearby like PA/OH average above though. I assume 2018 may have been an issue with coupling as we saw the ensuing winter. Makes me wonder if perhaps a sign an El Nino may not act like one in winter is a mild summer in the NE
-
I'd classify 12/20/95 and 12/6/03 as Miller Bs more than SWFEs, 12/14/03 was a SWFE though more of a south approacher like 11/2018 was...most come in from way further west than that so the core of the heaviest snows occur to our W and N. Overall systems do seem to amplify more now, we rarely see these weak washed out systems anymore like a 2/8/94 or 2/2008, those types of events always seem to want to majorly intensify or amp. There are numerous reasons why thats the case, likely the Pac SSTs being one of them
-
Yeah looks late month to me. Hopefully soil temps are cold enough that stretch from 2/9-2/14 does not do what it did last year and cause massive pre-mature blooming, we had numerous people in SC/GA lose crops etc when it got cold again in late February. I think the difference this time is soil temps won't rebound as well, last year 1/25-2/2 was decently warm which allowed the baseline soil temps to get up enough that the big warm spell just after that opened everything up.
-
To me they're the same thing...a SWFE is a Miller B which does not transfer and re-develop til N of 40 or 41N while a Miller B IMO is one that transfers and re-develops from like 39 or more 38N south. Also the transfer N of 40N is always sloppier and longer, because you have land mass extending more E over SNE than you do over DE/VA where the ocean is further west. Some of my friends and I used to call them Swmiller Bs at times....here's an example of one from 2/1993, you can see how it attempts to transfer over SNE but its messy and even most of SNE went to rain here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1993/us0222.php Blizzard of 1996 is a true Miller B, the transfer happens way more south. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1996/us0107.php
-
NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this
-
Minus the EPS the 2/9-2/13 period has seen some tempering of the ridge over the Lakes/TN Valley area. Beyond 2/16 its hard to know yet, some signs of a EPO ridge trying to poke back into AK on some of the ensembles again but the NAO looks gone, then again we've seen that attempt a few times too and its been wrong.
-
Right now feels like all major ensembles are locked onto the idea 10-13is pretty mild...especially W of the NE/SNE, then 14-17 looks colder. Then it comes down to what happens with the indices. If the PNA/EPO/WPO go strong -/+/+ the month is probably cooked and it gets very mild just about everywhere in the CONUS 18-28, but does not mean March is done. If those indices can at least settle near neutral values we may be in business since I think the AO/NAO are favorable. Someone else too maybe in the SNE thread mentioned don't forget shortening wavelengths allow crappier 500 setups to produce storms. I always point out how 2/8/13 and 4/6/82 had very similar 500mb patterns nationwide. One event pretty much escaped east, the other almost cut over us and was rain. Its a bit easier to get snow here in lousy setups in March than January, but obviously that factor can be negated by temp issues.
