SnowGoose69

Change that to SE/TN Valley. Chicago/Detroit have had basically no snow this winter at all. I think Minneapolis is close to 30 inches below normal now too

I would not even call this a SE ridge. This is more of just a broad southern US ridge...most warmth will be centered more in places like OK/TX/AR/KS the next 2 weeks than SC/GA/FL/AL. This pattern looks more El Nino like to me over the US than it does La Nina

Probably the slowest advancement its had since like 2015. It won't move much either even if they do torch down there from 1/29-2/8 or so. After you have a month that cold it takes a good 12-14 days where you're averaging over 50 or so to really get things going. Even less year FL/GA/MS/AL/TX went way slower in Feb than they did in 21-23 because January had that cold stretch mid month.

The bad part is when bird flu eventually jumps to go human to human which is probably within the next 10 years or so we'll probably have a ton of people who just ignore it. The good news is I saw a fairly good program on TV a few weeks back that projects it likely won't be as deadly as COVID was, likely somewhere midway between the severity of the 2009 and 1919 outbreaks but its believed that since influenza causes bacterial vs viral pneumonia it'll be easier to control the secondary impacts. COVID causing viral pneumonia is really what was most problematic.

The one thing I will say is this winter the GEFS amplitude has tended to be a bit too strong so it might end up between the two

I might lean more towards the GEFS right now given its handled the MJO better. the GEPS/EPS probably are getting colder faster since they are not pushing it through 4-5-6

Some doctors believe it still does not work quite as well from getting it naturally from the sun but its actually harder to obtain it that way than we realize. Your body sometimes won't absorb it fully if you shower quickly after being out and also you sort of need to be in a bathing suit, shorts/t-shirt won't exactly expose enough of your skin

Low vitamin D too. I got extraordinarily sick the first time I got covid. Began taking vitamin D supplement thereafter and have good levels on my yearly blood test, before that I was in the 20s. Have had Covid 3 more times since and just two colds, all were very minor. Vitamin D won't stop you from getting sick but it tends to limit the severity of the infections if you're levels are up in the 50s or higher.

I think KC is getting their drawers blown off in this game unless Allen turns into prime January Philip Rivers out of nowhere. I think KC -1.5 is about the biggest gift in a couple of months. I'd be real surprised if they won this game or even were in it with 5-6 mins to go. WSH may win too though I'd be sorta worried BUF/WSH would be like LA/SD from 1994. Don't think this team is quite ready yet to hang with an offense that good in a game that big.

The core of the airmass in 04 missed us to the NE over New England and it was simply way too windy that night so we were probably mixing too much. Ideally winds gusting 20-25kts tend to be ideal for NYC to go below 0 but it was well into the 30s that night

RSV tends to have outbreaks impacting adults every 4-6 years or so. In general we have immunity to it that lasts several years whereas children usually get very sick from it the first time around. I think when the strain alters enough that the immunity wears off we have outbreaks like this winter. I recall in 17/18 there was an outbreak impacting people middle aged and up. I definitely had it 2-3 weeks ago following like 4 people I work with having it. No runny nose or sneezing and no fever just a horrid sore throat that became a nasty dry cough. Usually in adults there is a pronounced lack of runny nose/sneezing vs the cold which can be a tip off thats what you have. Doctor told me at my physical in December there has been nearly no covid or flu this winter, at least as of then on 12/15 and all he was seeing was RSV/colds.

I feel as if the EPS/GEFS have been switching off on attempting this for weeks, now the 12Z GEFS today is trying it after it was the coldest in the east at D13-16 just a few days ago

NYC actually had several 80s winters with only 12-18 inches or so total snow that were pretty cold winters. That is somewhat unrepresentative of the area as a whole though as many of those winter NYC was a snow hole relative to Long Island and places inland

Jacksonville FL 33/30 now, going to see alot of FZRA maybe

Thats another daily record beating 0.8 from 1983

My mom wanted to retire to Jacksonville I told her yeah that won't work, you need to be Tampa to Melbourne line south really to be consistently warm with only some cold nights

Somewhere from ABY in GA down to the FL border is going to see crazy snow totals, maybe 7-8 inches. Looks like once you head over to VLD it'll be a mix

Ensembles and for example 18Z GFS show a pattern that is potentially very clipper favorable, we might finally see one impact the area in the next 2 weeks

The frontogenesis models showed 30-40 miles south of ATL as often happens verified about that distance north which is why that corridor had a period of moderate snow and so far Macon and other locations were light, probably had some subsidence

Ratios seem to be closer to 10:1 so I think the official airport measurement will be 0.7 or something near that which is what the Euro 10:1 maps showed when I had the major airports on them

Airport camera in ATL looks like VIS is down to 2-3 miles

I think the airport might see a half inch, downtown less. The Euro did have like 1.1 at the airport based on .08 QPF but I think some of that will be lost to dry air as it had snow by 1830-19z

Euro .08 liquid still for ATL, for those in FFC .12 shows snow 19-00Z. Radar about to close up the virga hole so might begin very soon. MGM interestingly is struggling so far, sometimes in these setups dry air aloft can push harder into AL/MS than GA

Looking at the virga circle closing up and the radar overall I do think steady snow will fall from I-20 south. could see the line setting up slightly north, still probably 90 more minutes til anything falls

Can see its snowing out over the Gulf right now on this camera https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/