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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    SE flow is just weak, it does not really crank til the system is already producing precip, and near shore water temps are now fairly cold. I am not sure even down here if anyone except Long Island and the south shore of NYC ever goes above 32.
  2. SnowGoose69
    I agree with Walt on that 12th-14th storm, there is definitely a risk of suppression though I think suppression is the wrong word. As I said yesterday, its more "failed phasing" or disjointed setup than it really would be suppresison
  3. SnowGoose69
    Wide range of risk on this one, anything from about the same as the 2/6 event to significantly snowier is possible.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Its very possible places from N Queens on W-NW never go to rain on this event, while there is ESE flow, its light, the event is very fast moving and short duration and there may be too much wet bulbing initially to push temps over 32 til the precip is almost over. LGA is roughly 32/21 at the start, if they fall to 28 I really doubt an 8-10kts wind from 090-110 blowing across a large area of sleet/snow on the ground is going to get them over freezing before the event exits. I still think there is mostly sleet though after maybe 2 hours of snow at the start.
  5. SnowGoose69
    06/18z Euro runs the last few years have tended to do some strange stuff. Should not be happening with today's model ingests but I've seen it more than enough times to know its a tendency at this point
  6. SnowGoose69
    The Euro seems out to lunch on this one, I am still wary of totally discounting it, maybe the 06z run was a blip but its evolution overall is just different than any other model right now.
  7. SnowGoose69
    The NAM is almost always the slowest model when it comes to start times, the fact its consistently been the earliest for the last 2 days tells me it might be right
  8. SnowGoose69
    I'm not worried too much about suppression as I am maybe storms not being able to amp up quite as much if the SER is flatter than that Op run shows
  9. SnowGoose69
    The GFS still could be overdoing the presence of the SER so I am not sold post 2/13-2/14 that storm tracks are going to be that far north.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The AI which has probably performed best on start time in many of these precip events has 07-08z for NYC. Probably means the UKMET/GFS/Euro might be too slow right now and NAM slightly too fast. It also has a slight wedging signature showing up. I think NE NJ/N parts of NYC have to be wary of this event staying frozen for most of it. We'll see what the NAM shows as it gets closer. As of today it shows most places turning SE on winds
  11. SnowGoose69
    Definitely need some sort of mesoscale help on this one to get more than a quick shot of snow, high positioning just not great though some higher res models show it could try to wedge itself in for a bit. Its why I am nervous about LGA/EWR on north holding onto ZR or PL longer before going to all rain but the event that follows this one looks more promising though I still think its the 10th and beyond when any all snow event is likely.
  12. SnowGoose69
    GEFS more or less moving that way, still has a ton of members going into nothing or even back into 2-3 but more today seem to be moving towards 8-1 than previous days
  13. SnowGoose69
    Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW. IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.
  14. SnowGoose69
    JFK east went over to rain. LGA west I’m not sure they ever did. Maybe for an hour or so they got some light rain but then it went back below freezing. Most areas simply just dry slotted
  15. SnowGoose69
    It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here. While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding. The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more. Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5
  16. SnowGoose69
    HUH? LGA 030000 METAR 022351Z 04007KT 6SM -RASN OVC030 M02/M04 A3033 RMK AO2 RAB50SNB48 SLP270 P0000 60000 T1017107211011 21028 56026
  17. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro is a bit colder at the start for the 6th, would definitely have snow for several hours on the next event too
  18. SnowGoose69
    I think the SE ridge is gonna be pretty much toasted after 2/15, but I don't fear suppression really as of now. I think likely lack of a strong -NAO should prevent that
  19. SnowGoose69
    I had said days ago don't buy into the 8th setup, even the 6th will be all rain at the coast probably because the high position is bad. The 8th has a chance of starting as something frozen but more likely PL or FZRA. Thereafter is where snow is more likely but still probably more of a classic SWFE where it goes snow to rain
  20. SnowGoose69
    My recollection whoever ran the server did not pay the bill and it just died for like 1-2 weeks then all of a sudden a notice came that the new site was coming.
  21. SnowGoose69
    GFS probably out to lunch on Wednesday, I am still not sold on the 8th-9th either, I think it may be after that where the threats start. At least as far as snow
  22. SnowGoose69
    Haven't they been torchy the entire winter too? I seem to remember them showing January being like 2002 or 2012
  23. SnowGoose69
    The GEFS has been awful on it all winter and the last 3 days many of its members have moved pretty heavily towards the EPS idea so my hunch is the EPS is going to win again.
  24. SnowGoose69
    Its still early but I am becoming somewhat more optimistic perhaps we see a good 8-1-2 wave again. In the last 2 days its evident the EPS has really has the GEFS move towards it on the MJO idea, at least in the near term. The GEFS still seems to want to maybe kill the wave in 7 or late in 6 though.
  25. SnowGoose69
    I would not get too excited about 2/8. I suspect there is high risk that ends up well to the north. There is also a chance it could just be flat and nothing if again the whole progressiveness of the pattern is being underestimated at this range. Overall it requires nearly perfect timing of everything to work
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