SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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EWR has 2 on the ground, LGA/JFK have nothing as of the 00Z METAR. This may be an event where NYC reports way more than LGA/JFK do due to temps being cooler in the park
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Meanwhile neither JFK/LGA reported TSSN, shows you how you have to be very close to where its occurring to hear it
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The GS line finally cleared E of them, radar was more impressive an hour ago but it was mixed with GS so it did not look that bad
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You can see the graupel line has now cleared PHL as its all snow at the game now despite the fact radar echoes looked better an hour ago
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Not even what the issue is I don't think as all layers are below 0C above like 1500ft, its likely just lousy snow growth on the east edge of the deformation zone. The CC radar does not see it since its not PL though some observers are mistakenly reporting PL instead of GS
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Definitely going to be graupel mixed in til 23z or so based on latest obs...you can see looking at the METARS from E PA to NJ that a line from around CDW back to just east of TTN and down through metro PHL the visibilities are high based on the radar echoes, everything back behind that is all snow
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Definitely is SNGS, PHL METAR confirms it, should be all snow soon
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Not for long, maybe 15-20 more minutes
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yeah finally has a handle on it, matches current radar, as I said earlier this event all occurs from around the city east in a 3-4 hour period from 22-02 or so
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LGA 191900 METAR 191851Z 07007KT 2 1/2SM GSSN SCT020 OVC038 03/M03 A2974 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SNB31GSB47 SLP070 GS LGT P0000 T00281028
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DPs are pretty low now in the HSV and SW CT. The N wind is gonna pull those down in the 22-01z period. LGA/JFK will go from like 37/34 to 32/30 really fast once this consolidates and moves in
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They'll get sleeted to death there in the end probably. I checked the IAH/MSY airport snow records and basically nothing of this magnitude has ever happened before. I think more mid level WAA could sneak in there. Baton Rouge maybe, they've had 6-7 inch storms before
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I still think something happens there, the strong 250mb jet on the N side could also generate snow. I'd start watching the HRRR at the end of its runs. It has tended to do a good job seeing these WAA induced areas of snow that can occur as a result of that feature and it will see them at 48 hours. If the 18Z or 00Z HRRR generate snow into MS/AL north of the other models that would be an indicator of it
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The HRRR/06Z Euro are only models that seem to be close at the moment....all show little activity from NYC-E til 2130z or so
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The HREF looks overdone. To me the metro will get 99% of their snow from 23-02Z probably, unless somewhere there are 2 inch an hour rates 6-7 would be hard to reach
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The ICON finally got a clue this run and looks similar over GA/SC to others
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The main problem I see now is DPs/Ts higher than modeled. for example LGA 40/30, both NAM/GFS had 36/27 or so. It may mean any snow from 18-21Z or so won't do a whole lot but not sure it matters a ton as 22-02 was probably when the meaningful rates were coming anyway
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I always use them in situations like this to gauge evaporative cooling potential. One thing is for sure early, the 36/27 at LGA at 15Z won't be right, its 40/30 now
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The January 2018 and January 2014 storms at this range looked similar. This is actually an extremely close match to 14, 18 not quite as much as that had more NW flow and was a weaker system down along the Gulf which fooled so many of us but we were warned on forecasts for the AL/GA region to watch out because there was SW flow in the mid-levels and the models could be underdoing amounts. sure enough inside 36 hours everything started expanding the snow area and parts of S ATL had 4 inches with it.
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The HRRR can suck on systems like this where its organizing/developing very late and in close proximity to an area. I'd still stick with there being risk of more 5s and 6s vs 3s and 4s
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Surprised they put a WSW out THAT far N in GA. I do think maybe the ATL metro could see an inch as the WAA snow area in these often ends up extending more N than models show at this range but the northern tier of counties in the watch seems a bit far north
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The HREF mean is now 4-6 everywhere with 6-8s N shore of LI and parts of NW NJ the Hudson Valley
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These events always are this way. The post MetLife stadium Super Bowl storm in 2014 I think was mid or high 40s before and I know the April event maybe 5-6 years ago was too
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The Euro just totally owned every model on the storm up here for tomorrow so just keep hoping its run continues down your way on this one. Oddly enough the RGEM/CMC agrees with it for this storm though and that was the model that just got beat the worst up here for tomorrow
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The ICON does wacky stuff once you're inside like 72. I use it sometimes to get a sense of where other models are at from 72-144 or so and it can outperform the GFS/CMC on the end result there often but close in it can be all over.
