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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM. I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that
  2. SnowGoose69
    Once you get inside 72 hours of a setup that is not exactly simple the ICON can start doing funny things. Part of that is the other models just are way better than the ICON at that range. Its in the Day 4-7 period the ICON can often school the NAM at the end of its run or the GFS/CMC at times. Inside of that it will do odd stuff those models are just better at not falling into
  3. SnowGoose69
    Already some GEFS members are bailing on the -PNA, it was a unanimous move to -1 or so a few days back now its a split with some wanting to stay positive. I still think the pattern goes lousy at some stage but it might be mid or late February by the time it does
  4. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM/Euro now show ATL north might see a decent amount of snow/sleet before they flip to FZRA. The problem is they are so close to being dry slotted because the WAA precip shield more or less only runs about 30-40 miles south of ATL on northeast. So a shift of 30 miles and there may be next to no precip falling at all.
  5. SnowGoose69
    I think the 12Z Euro/EPS really faked everyone out as it joined the RGEM/UKMET that cycle and was north. 18Z went right back south, that 00Z UKMET snow map looks very close to the 18Z Euro. Still this is far enough out more surprises might happen
  6. SnowGoose69
    I think you need to wait til Thu AM to know. The 18Z Euro looked better for ATL, cannot put much stock in the GFS, NAM is out of range. I think once the NAM/RGEM are inside 48 we'd have a better idea. The flatter this is the more likely that area sees mainly snow but at same time they'd have hard time getting over 3-4 inches at best.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I find it funny the CMC/RGEM/UKMET all said I'm out tonight and did not run UKMET finally is running
  8. SnowGoose69
    Correct. This forum will be exploding at like 5am Friday over GA/SC that its going to start snowing any minute because the radar will be blossoming everywhere but it likely won't reach the ground for 2-3 hours after. The models only show precip when its expect to reach the ground
  9. SnowGoose69
    The funny thing is the 18Z Euro had more snow here than the 00Z GFS did
  10. SnowGoose69
    Usually that layer though from like 680-850 which shows as -1C with strong SW flow verifies way milder in the end. Often 1-2C milder
  11. SnowGoose69
    EURO AI went more OTS on this run
  12. SnowGoose69
    That may be possible. The wedge is lousy but the air mass in place and nearby is good. I still think ATL's snow event comes next week. Setup and position of high to me is way better.
  13. SnowGoose69
    I got a bunch of texts about the NAVGEM. It still does usually end up more progressive than other models. I think that was just an off run but its interesting, if it continues to be that amped up I've seen cases where that ends up being an indicator other models move north or west
  14. SnowGoose69
    I'd go mostly pellets ending as light FZRA in ATL with some snow at the start. I don't think due to the pattern over the Atlantic this is going to climb much more north. The one thing I would watch for is less shearing out of the system as it comes east. I do think the QPF values on the Euro for example are likely too low
  15. SnowGoose69
    30-40 miles probably. Assuming we see no north shift I'd say places 15-20 miles north of the north side of 285 would be mostly snow
  16. SnowGoose69
    Euro for ATL about what I've been expecting. SN briefly, then SNPL, then PL, then FZRA. The wedge may indeed break and they get to 34 but by then I think the event has ended anyway
  17. SnowGoose69
    It verifies usually just behind the Euro but thats 500 heights. It can show funny things for precip type/QPF so usually you want to use it just for track
  18. SnowGoose69
    I don't think the Euro will be as flat as the UKMET. The UKMET was a bit too flat with this last system too. Its also missing the snow across the MA region which I think happens with the vort/jet
  19. SnowGoose69
    Yeah ORD/DTW/MSP all pretty low on snow this winter so far. Obviously BOS too
  20. SnowGoose69
    Can keeps getting kicked. I am convinced we never see a sustained torch this winter at this point, maybe mid February onward finally there is a change but not happening consistently so far on anything in next 2 weeks
  21. SnowGoose69
    GGEM has more of a wedge over NGA/ATL than the RGEM which tells me typical RGEM long range issues, beyond 42-48 its not terribly reliable in a mixed precip event
  22. SnowGoose69
    This winter is so 1980s....NYC could be nickled and dimed to like 6-7 inches of snow by 1/10. We have not seen that in a long time
  23. SnowGoose69
    I felt the NAM/RGEM were not the best if you want snow in ATL. Both seemed to also move away from the wedge strength indicating it might just be a 1-2 hours of pellets/snow to begin and then right over to rain. We'll see if the Euro moves that way. RGEM/NAM just are not terribly reliable beyond 48, the NAM is wonky and the RGEM has a tendency to be overamped or too warm beyond 48.
  24. SnowGoose69
    The combo of that jet and the vort I think it snows for sure. I'd rather be us right now than SNE probably.
  25. SnowGoose69
    I think the Euro is too weak with the system as it goes from TX to GA. I'd go way bigger on QPF and dynamics overall. That might have some impact as to what happens down the line although probably the NRN stream differences make that meaningless anyway
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