SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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18Z Euro now has .20 at JFK
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Yeah it has no snow into JFK til 0230z, that seems nearly impossible based on latest radar and movement.
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This is quite amazing, I mentioned that storm to a friend around the time of my post, he sent me this link off youutube. The first weather segment is from the day before but you can scroll through and watch Joe Cioffi get progressively more nervous and eventually just mad about the forecast which appears its going to bust. Who'd have known a broadcast from that day would be on youtube.
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Snow has been reaching the ground almost everywhere once ceilings reach 5000-7000ft so its not taking too long once you get radar echoes over you
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Its steadily moving north now, its close to the 3km NAM's 23Z position of it, that had snow into JFK by 0030Z. I still think that could be a bit too fast, even for just flurries.
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Went back and looked at 15z HRRR and 12Z NAM, at 22Z the NAM had the snow N of ACY with a steady advancement by 23Z which is happening, the HRRR barely had it into ACY by 23Z. Its possible the HRRR will just keep playing catch up all night
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GFS has snow at the start but there is screaming south flow. Not sure I buy that except inland
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We won't know which model is right til 01-03Z or so when we see how hard that push up the NJ coast from the SSE is. I feel like I'm watching the February 89 storm unfold, you had to keep watching snow that was SE of here trying to pivot NW
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I am starting to think coastal NJ and parts of LI see more snow from this than places such as NRN MD/NRN DE and SE PA
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If you look back at the 12Z runs as of 19Z the 3km NAM/Euro/HRRR seem to be the closest, both are a bit too slow down in SE MD advancing the snow but not by much. The high res GFS is way too far N in W PA and the RGEM is too far south in W PA. The difference is the HRRR just does not advance the snow from the coast up as far N overnight as those other 2 models do
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Its been south all winter it seems on many storms, not just the ones that impact the NE either.
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Saturday could easily be nothing, I think our best shot there is keep with the progressive tendency of the winter and have that first system be flat and quick so we force the baroclinic zone and trof more east and the follow up wave could be snow. Its going to take alot of work but at this range its possible
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Its hard to puck a ton of stock in the NAM given how bad for example its 12Z run from yesterday is currently verifying at hour 27. It had snow into SW PA and basically no snow in coastal VA.
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The warm nose was pretty stubborn all night in the metro in that one. I think LGA saw way more snow than the S shore of LI did. I drove later that day from LI to Florida (NY, not Florida Florida) and there like 10 inches up there
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They're gonna mix probably
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The PV orientation if I recall right in Canada was far east and elongated which prevented it. Also we had more of a neutral NAO and -AO.
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The pattern honestly screams suppression post 2/17 or so but not totally sure I buy it
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The window to me is 2/17-2/23, after that if you even take the ensemble pattern verbatim and assume the Pac Jet is underdone the ridge again may end up too far east and we'll be cool and dry.
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I think 3-4 is the best case still southern parts of our area. The next storm is just way too amped up that even inland areas may be ZR or sleet mostly, that setup is good as far as high placement but you need a weak wave not a jacked up system.
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We were not going to see a real blockbuster potential til post 2/17 or so when the PNA goes positive.
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The block is just too far north, would not have mattered even back then if it was that far up
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Might not inland, depends on how strong the system is, exactly where that high is positioned etc. The 18Z RGEM high position not sure anyone inland goes over to rain really
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Thursday would be decent if the system was not so amped up. Its one of those SSW approachers with the high to our north but its just way to zonked right now the coast to see much snow.
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Its funny how it mishandled yesterday here so similarly to how it mishandled the southern snow event that gave ATL 3-4 inches a few weeks back. In both cases it was insanely far north inside the final 12-18 hours and practically dry slotted areas where the most snow fell. I know some of the SNE forum posters have said in the case of systems that are more dynamic with WAA it can go overboard sometimes and handles the more modest intensity storms better
