SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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1/10-11 super awesome winter SE OBS thread
SnowGoose69 replied to strongwxnc's topic in Southeastern States
CC radar shows the FZRAPL line now moving towards ATL. FFC has gone over to PL now based on the VIS. Still ATL got more snow outta this than I think most models had other than the Euro -
Yeah web cams look like its all snow I-20 N and PLSN south of there. If you extrapolate the obs in AL and radar I think I-20 N might see a 2 hour period of decent snow. S of there probably no
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The ESE flow on almost all models may be enough that it just flips to rain in ATL. If they lay down a widespread area of 2 inches of sleet/snow though that might make it harder for the temp to climb over 32 as the gradient is not terribly strong. Many models show FZRA all aftn but the HRRR has not been buying it. The RGEM at 00Z moved towards the idea but mostly NE suburbs
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I think mainly sleet. I think N side will see snow for a couple of hours. Downtown area S likely starts as sleet and gets it hard for awhile
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NAM in essence is on its own for GA. RGEM/Hi res GFS/HRRR all look the same, as a whole this event is quicker than expected a day ago. It may be snowing into ATL and most of WRN N GA by 1030Z
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Well if the NAM is right this is the biggest bust ever for ATL. Rain by 14Z
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18z Euro verifying best by a wide margin on precip coverage right now. RGEM is not bad but its too dry, 12/3KM NAM horrific. They were both dry in Shreveport and most of NRN LA and WRN MS/SE AR. Even the high res 12Z GFS is okay as is the regular GFS.
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That may be why the 18Z run had a notable south shift over AL/GA with the WAA precip shield. We'll see if the 00Z continues to do that
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One reason the NAM may have been yanking this thing so far N on runs til 18Z today and also drier on the SRN periphery was it was trying to blow too much convection up in the WRN Gulf. The HREF TSTM probs were never high with this and there is little activity out there now
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the air mass in place there was lousy, it was like 01/M05 when the event started. Most areas in the SE/MA have a better air mass but it does indicate FZRA/PL will be a problem regardless
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Looking back at the 00Z NAM/RGEM last night they were just so bad on the current coverage of precip in SE AR/W MS/NRN LA at the 00Z hour tonight 24 hour forecast. Even the Euro was underdone but not as bad. This was the key area for whether parts of GA down by ATL would get smashed in the AM or not, this area needed to be there and it is. Finally the 3km NAM caught it on the 18Z run today too. Just hope its PL and not FZRA, it ain't gonna be snow
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Thats gotta be sleet
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If the NAM is right ATL should be fine, 4-5 hours of some nasty sleet and then likely over to RA. The ESE winds of 10-15kts should push them into the mid 30s
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RGEM not bad but its been ticking north over AL/GA with the WAA slug the last few runs.
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If anything the FV3 is south of the 12Z run through like 42 hours but I’ve never followed that model much to know how it performs
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The Euro doesn’t bomb often and it’s been real good this year but my memory is the one area it’s dropped a few major duds is on these pure southern branch systems like this
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It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z. They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32
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The fact it’s been trending this way for several runs tells me it may be onto something. I’ve not seen the NAM fail that severely at 36-42 hours too often. Beyond that is another story
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The NAM now basically gives Atlanta nothing at all in the morning. I’m not sure it’s onto something or on it own planet
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RGEM maybe did tick towards the NAM slightly, could be noise but there was a 20-25 mile shift N for a good portion of the run. Still have to watch this closely for areas on the edge
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Yeah they continue to be way north with the WAA precip in AL/GA too though early in the run it did not look that way
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Through 30 at least NAM looks like it won't be as N with precip into AL/GA this run
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Just like 18-19 the Nino never came but long range models kept trying to bring it. Those PNA ensembles just 3-5 days ago unanimously had it going to -1 now they are mostly positive again
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The New England forum has said before beyond 36 the GRAF is not too reliable but it does well at times inside of that.
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The RGEM is usually okay at 48-54 and not awful from 54-84. The 12km NAM can be really bad past 42-48 though the degree of badness can vary storm to storm. 3km NAM I trust only inside 30-36. Today for example the 3Km NAM at 48-60 over AL/GA/TN more resembles the RGEM/GFS than it down its own 12km counterpart which was very far north
