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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The system at 90-108 is absolutely going to have an impact on where this storm goes
  2. SnowGoose69
    Anything with WAA/overrunning mechanisms models will be all over the place...there will probably be a location somewhere that gets absolutely dumped on with a mesoscale band and if you look at the models its likely to be right at the beginning in the first 3 hours.
  3. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has really been bad this winter...really the RGEM/CMC has probably been the best model overall...at this range though both will generally not correctly see mid level warmth...you really have to be inside 30 hours before you have any good idea. I am not sure I see this is a system though with a monstrous area of WAA/sleet because its dampening to a degree as it approaches. I think you're more likely to just have a narrow 10-20 mile area of SNPL or PL somewhere in the transition zone
  4. SnowGoose69
    The front running system from 96-108 IMO is what makes it more likely a Euro type solution happens vs GFS
  5. SnowGoose69
    As forky said you don't want it to fizzle too much because you doubly can get screwed if it does...one you get less QPF but a weaker system causes more E-SE gradient. Right now you start SE but the dvlpmt of the sfc low to the SE of us kinks the gradient and it gets CAD like and we go from 090 to 030-050 and hold low level cold air in. A weaker approaching system basically wave trains the whole thing downstream and you'd be 34-35 with light snow.
  6. SnowGoose69
    Sort of but the ICON and GGEM made notable shifts north. Its simply too far out at this point though
  7. SnowGoose69
    Meanwhile everything is caving towards the GFS on the next storm lol
  8. SnowGoose69
    I wonder if in the end my area up into CT gets the worst middle finger imaginable in that the s/w continues to trend worse and inevitably the whole thing ticks north so even places like DXR end up just seeing paltry amounts of sleet
  9. SnowGoose69
    This may be the usual head fake south we see on these events at this range then immediately they go north again inside 48. The problem here though is the S/W is getting crappier and the blocking is becoming stronger. Its possible this is a legit change and probably why I'd be wary of hoping the next system does not end up like the ICON has being over North Carolina
  10. SnowGoose69
    Verbatim if you take a mix of the guidance this is as close to 12/2005 as you can get or maybe 1/3/03 where it may be 31 and snowing in Mt Vernon and 34 and rain or 32 and sleet in LGA...the storm setups are nothing alike but you can see even on the warmest setups the metro winds go 120-080-020 so its never gonna get above 33-34 probably even on central or eastern LI. This is automatically a rain event in December but here it may be hours on end of PLRA or PL...I definitely could see places like EWR or NYC being entirely sleet without a doubt.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Most likely...I still question if we do not even end top 5...it won't be hard to randomly get a 5 inch storm if the ensemble pattern verifies
  12. SnowGoose69
    I'm filing a disclaimer complaint with Upton if CPK/NYC gets 1 inch of sleet with this and then adds 1.5 or less elsewhere and we break the record lol....sleet normally counts as snow...well should I say OFFICIALLY does but in this case we should make an exception if it ruins the record
  13. SnowGoose69
    The 06z Euro is the closest thing to the NAM right now for tomorrow afternoon and evening
  14. SnowGoose69
    With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March
  15. SnowGoose69
    Its been on the snow train here for both 2/25 and 2/28 so far for sure
  16. SnowGoose69
    There are some Mets who are sorta on the reverse train like Rayo was in December telling everyone the event was gonna be an inland or Lakes event I have talked to several Mets in the last 24 hours and seen some on social media hyping that this thing is gonna be a NYC or Philly south event and we are gonna see all the models out of nowhere shift in the next 24-48 hours. I am not seeing it though.
  17. SnowGoose69
    That is a classic system where models will underestimate any overrunning til very late...the southern area is gonna miss but I'd watch inside 48 to see if suddenly we start seeing a widespread area of light snows from CNJ into SNE...the Euro has been showing it somewhat and the RGEM/NAM did last night before losing it today
  18. SnowGoose69
    I think the NATL side setup is fine but the issue is I cannot see anything to argue for the system ejecting from the SW and Plains to come out flatter or weaker through the Midwest and Lakes which is really what everyone south of 90 or even along it needs
  19. SnowGoose69
    In this case the airmass in place before might actually allow for a lengthy period of snow in areas which begin as snow in SNE. The wildly fast flip from SN to PL usually only happens in SWFE type events where you have a majorly stale airmass in place or one that is not that cold but in this case if you're in Worcester for example its established for awhile
  20. SnowGoose69
    I'd probably feel pretty good in ORH or BOS but way less so in BDL or PVD
  21. SnowGoose69
    If the high is more south it can work but that high is just way too far N and E IMO. Even then you still changeover but in this setup I'd be surprised if NYC did better than just some PL at the start of the event
  22. SnowGoose69
    I jokingly said in the NYC forum if you're between BDL and BDR right now I like the chances of the 25th event producing more snow than I do this one...or the system later next week. I'd be surprised if this ended up being a major event even in a place like interior central CT
  23. SnowGoose69
    I like the weekend overrunning better than I like the 28th event lol and that ain't saying much. Talk to me about the storm later next week once perhaps confluence and blocking is more established but I'd be surprised if even places like central CT saw big snows from this event, the primary low due to the pattern is probably gonna get too far north for the confluence to matter much. I could still see the weekend event producing an inch of snow in parts of the area despite models being paltry as of now on QPF
  24. SnowGoose69
    I'd still watch Saturday for something as well...it may end up more north but someone probably sees light snows
  25. SnowGoose69
    The tendency being away from that all winter is partly what makes me think this has a chance...virtually nothing has gotten sheared like that all season
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