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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Looking back at the 00Z NAM/RGEM last night they were just so bad on the current coverage of precip in SE AR/W MS/NRN LA at the 00Z hour tonight 24 hour forecast. Even the Euro was underdone but not as bad. This was the key area for whether parts of GA down by ATL would get smashed in the AM or not, this area needed to be there and it is. Finally the 3km NAM caught it on the 18Z run today too. Just hope its PL and not FZRA, it ain't gonna be snow
  2. SnowGoose69
    Thats gotta be sleet
  3. SnowGoose69
    If the NAM is right ATL should be fine, 4-5 hours of some nasty sleet and then likely over to RA. The ESE winds of 10-15kts should push them into the mid 30s
  4. SnowGoose69
    RGEM not bad but its been ticking north over AL/GA with the WAA slug the last few runs.
  5. SnowGoose69
    If anything the FV3 is south of the 12Z run through like 42 hours but I’ve never followed that model much to know how it performs
  6. SnowGoose69
    The Euro doesn’t bomb often and it’s been real good this year but my memory is the one area it’s dropped a few major duds is on these pure southern branch systems like this
  7. SnowGoose69
    It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z. They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32
  8. SnowGoose69
    The fact it’s been trending this way for several runs tells me it may be onto something. I’ve not seen the NAM fail that severely at 36-42 hours too often. Beyond that is another story
  9. SnowGoose69
    The NAM now basically gives Atlanta nothing at all in the morning. I’m not sure it’s onto something or on it own planet
  10. SnowGoose69
    RGEM maybe did tick towards the NAM slightly, could be noise but there was a 20-25 mile shift N for a good portion of the run. Still have to watch this closely for areas on the edge
  11. SnowGoose69
    Yeah they continue to be way north with the WAA precip in AL/GA too though early in the run it did not look that way
  12. SnowGoose69
    Through 30 at least NAM looks like it won't be as N with precip into AL/GA this run
  13. SnowGoose69
    Just like 18-19 the Nino never came but long range models kept trying to bring it. Those PNA ensembles just 3-5 days ago unanimously had it going to -1 now they are mostly positive again
  14. SnowGoose69
    The New England forum has said before beyond 36 the GRAF is not too reliable but it does well at times inside of that.
  15. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is usually okay at 48-54 and not awful from 54-84. The 12km NAM can be really bad past 42-48 though the degree of badness can vary storm to storm. 3km NAM I trust only inside 30-36. Today for example the 3Km NAM at 48-60 over AL/GA/TN more resembles the RGEM/GFS than it down its own 12km counterpart which was very far north
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah that must be a model algorithm issue or something the sounding at that time is 32.2/23 at JFK with a NW wind
  17. SnowGoose69
    Most of TN and NRN GA closer to the TN border is the area I'd be most confident in now for snow amounts. Beginning to think even down close to ATL could see 2-3 inches though before it flips, especially if some type of mesoscale banding happens.
  18. SnowGoose69
    Euro now having the most snow here still is funny. Must be keying in more on that disturbance or jet than the other models are
  19. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM is not nearly as far north as the NAM is
  20. SnowGoose69
    The NAM is probably too warm and amped. Prior to 36 hours there’s a tendency for that
  21. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM. I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that
  22. SnowGoose69
    Once you get inside 72 hours of a setup that is not exactly simple the ICON can start doing funny things. Part of that is the other models just are way better than the ICON at that range. Its in the Day 4-7 period the ICON can often school the NAM at the end of its run or the GFS/CMC at times. Inside of that it will do odd stuff those models are just better at not falling into
  23. SnowGoose69
    Already some GEFS members are bailing on the -PNA, it was a unanimous move to -1 or so a few days back now its a split with some wanting to stay positive. I still think the pattern goes lousy at some stage but it might be mid or late February by the time it does
  24. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM/Euro now show ATL north might see a decent amount of snow/sleet before they flip to FZRA. The problem is they are so close to being dry slotted because the WAA precip shield more or less only runs about 30-40 miles south of ATL on northeast. So a shift of 30 miles and there may be next to no precip falling at all.
  25. SnowGoose69
    I think the 12Z Euro/EPS really faked everyone out as it joined the RGEM/UKMET that cycle and was north. 18Z went right back south, that 00Z UKMET snow map looks very close to the 18Z Euro. Still this is far enough out more surprises might happen
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