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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed. I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL. I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.
  2. SnowGoose69
    I think you'd see sleet there. I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week
  3. SnowGoose69
    Its more likely given the setup in place this takes more of an 89 or 73 track than it does coming way NW. I'd lean more towards this being a storm from coastal NC back through SC/GA/AL/MS now than I would TN/NC/VA but its still far out
  4. SnowGoose69
    It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade. This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone
  5. SnowGoose69
    It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally
  6. SnowGoose69
    The main idea for areas in the SE is to have the wave that hits New England be weak or develop late, if its early like the Euro has had or it just is too strong it will sharpen up the trof from Texas to the East Coast and hence you won't have the broader meridional look you see on the GFS to allow a storm to ride out of that area along the Gulf. The CMC develops the storm so late and far north it does not have a ton of impact on the orientation though it does not have the broad extended trof the GFS has
  7. SnowGoose69
    Unfortunately its been bad in the long range this winter. the EPS has tended to verify better past D10 on the overall look
  8. SnowGoose69
    It torched everywhere though after that. If I remember right even places like SLC/SEA had record warm Februarys in 2011. The entire pattern just went full blown 01-02
  9. SnowGoose69
    There was also an ETAxx that bombed out everything massively
  10. SnowGoose69
    NYC went 9 years without an 8 inch storm I think from 1984-1993, but some of that was bad luck and bad measuring. The 7.6 inches on 1/22/87 had to be wrong based on EWR/LGA and some other random mesoscale bad luck contributed to that
  11. SnowGoose69
    I'm to the point where I feel the only way the pattern fully snaps and breaks down is the MJO races through 4-5-6 but its hard for me to believe this wave can continue at this amplitude that long
  12. SnowGoose69
    Being so far west I would put them in the risk for now
  13. SnowGoose69
    At minimum at the moment I like the idea of at least a close call near 160-180. The main two ways it can go sour is probably first wave is too strong or the ensuing cold push from the Plains/MW is too strong and presses farther south.
  14. SnowGoose69
    CMC/ICON seem to argue the event at 180 is more TN Valley/CNTRL or NRN MA. Its possible if the cold push is stronger that might be a GA/SC event too but I'd lean now more to MS/AL/TN and NE front there. Might even be a tough ask for NC
  15. SnowGoose69
    Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east
  16. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro sure looks like it could produce some type of wave post 144..overall Euro/CMC have been flatter with the wave at 120-144, if that is not a cutter or something going into PA or WRN NY it increases the risk that the follow up would track offshore with the boundary more able to press SE
  17. SnowGoose69
    All models show some type of wave trying to generate in the Western Gulf there, that is such a suppressive pattern I'd be surprised if anything showed up consistently before D4-5 because most ensemble members and Op runs will want to squash the wave
  18. SnowGoose69
    I thought they had 2.3 and 2.5 back in Dec/Jan 17-18
  19. SnowGoose69
    Euro has like 2 inches of FZRA in Florida lol
  20. SnowGoose69
    Some AMO periods have lasted 30-35 years I believe so its not surprising we are delayed. There were signs a few years back it was going to flip. I guess the WATL is colder this winter than recent years but we'd need to see a shift in summer months and not see well above normal SSTs
  21. SnowGoose69
    Eventually the AMO will go negative again. Those typically lead to less snowy/drier winters even if its cold. Thats partly why the 80s were not terribly snowy, especially western parts of the metro. Many storms in the 80s favored SNE/Eastern LI
  22. SnowGoose69
    Models definitely are overdoing the -PNA long range, they keep trying to have a run or two every few days where they really tank it down to -1 then the average goes back to neutral or positive. If the MJO wave weakens before it can strongly go through 3 and 4 its hard to believe we ever see this pattern shift, even in February which means sooner or later it'll snow but the 06z runs no doubt again have a look that favors the TN Valley/SE/MA more so
  23. SnowGoose69
    Depends if they measure quickly enough when the flip begins, it can compact fast
  24. SnowGoose69
    SNINCR 1/1 this hour so at least 0.5 or as much as 1.4 so far
  25. SnowGoose69
    Will be close if they reach 1 inch, changeover line approaching fairly quick now.
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