SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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The GRAF has come back south somewhat now, showing less wacky totals for ATL than it had been. I think dsaur/deltapilot/suzook are sitting in a way better spot than ATL downtown or even the airport. could see a case where they see 1-1.5 inches if this bumps somewhat north and downtown ATL sees flurries or nothing. In SC I think I'd pick 30-40 miles NW of CHS for prime spot. CHS obviously risk of sleet.
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No both were weak La Ninas to neutral cold. 96-97 had a great AO/NAO combo in Dec much like 2012 did but nothing happened outside of interior parts of SNE and Upstate NY. Then we went cold and dry in January and torch in February. It was more of a bad luck winter than anything else, some places south of here had well above normal snowfall. 11-12 and 01-02 were similar as far as their proximity to a solar max and a neutral after a Nina
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Looks increasingly likely we will be neutral or weak La Nina again next winter. Historically that has not generally been good near solar maxes, I think this winter we benefited somewhat coming off the El Nino as we did in 2010-2011. I am definitely fearing 96-97 01-02 11-12 somewhat next winter if we continue to see a move towards La Nina or cold neutral
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The spots I'd most want to be in are probably a BTR-Hattiesburg to maybe 40 miles south of MGM-CSG-MCN corridor...south of that might be mixing
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Don't think you'll see a big change really, this is simply the models catching onto what the Euro has been showing, the WAA finger of snow over GA/SC/AL was being badly underdone but I'd expect it does not climb much further north than this.
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It did well with the last SE storm, I know that. Its awful with convection though. I had been ignoring it since it was so bad last summer.
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Tough one for the NWS here, the GRAF/Euro/GFS are all showing snow extending way further in GA/SC/NC than any other model, you can assume the higher resolution of the mesos is correct and why they see nothing but in airmass like this it might not take much to squeeze out an inch of snow
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3-5 seems common everywhere. Based on the 7pm official station obs though I am not sure any reach 3 other than EWR. LGA maybe will be 2.7 or so
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Won’t be til 1am probbaly but I’d guess it’s between 2-3
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Canadian sort of got it right for the wrong reason. The low didn’t track anywhere near that far west
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You gotta be close to it. Christmas 02 I was 3 miles maybe on a straight line form LGA and heard numerous claps of thunder but the airport never reported it. Its usually only audible due to the snow absorbing the sound and the lightning sometimes being obscured form nearby
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The Euro has consistently shown the warm advection band reaching them. Otherwise just the high res GFS did today. RGEM was close but just south
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EWR has 2 on the ground, LGA/JFK have nothing as of the 00Z METAR. This may be an event where NYC reports way more than LGA/JFK do due to temps being cooler in the park
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Meanwhile neither JFK/LGA reported TSSN, shows you how you have to be very close to where its occurring to hear it
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The GS line finally cleared E of them, radar was more impressive an hour ago but it was mixed with GS so it did not look that bad
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You can see the graupel line has now cleared PHL as its all snow at the game now despite the fact radar echoes looked better an hour ago
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Not even what the issue is I don't think as all layers are below 0C above like 1500ft, its likely just lousy snow growth on the east edge of the deformation zone. The CC radar does not see it since its not PL though some observers are mistakenly reporting PL instead of GS
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Definitely going to be graupel mixed in til 23z or so based on latest obs...you can see looking at the METARS from E PA to NJ that a line from around CDW back to just east of TTN and down through metro PHL the visibilities are high based on the radar echoes, everything back behind that is all snow
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Definitely is SNGS, PHL METAR confirms it, should be all snow soon
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Not for long, maybe 15-20 more minutes
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yeah finally has a handle on it, matches current radar, as I said earlier this event all occurs from around the city east in a 3-4 hour period from 22-02 or so
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LGA 191900 METAR 191851Z 07007KT 2 1/2SM GSSN SCT020 OVC038 03/M03 A2974 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SNB31GSB47 SLP070 GS LGT P0000 T00281028
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DPs are pretty low now in the HSV and SW CT. The N wind is gonna pull those down in the 22-01z period. LGA/JFK will go from like 37/34 to 32/30 really fast once this consolidates and moves in
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They'll get sleeted to death there in the end probably. I checked the IAH/MSY airport snow records and basically nothing of this magnitude has ever happened before. I think more mid level WAA could sneak in there. Baton Rouge maybe, they've had 6-7 inch storms before
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I still think something happens there, the strong 250mb jet on the N side could also generate snow. I'd start watching the HRRR at the end of its runs. It has tended to do a good job seeing these WAA induced areas of snow that can occur as a result of that feature and it will see them at 48 hours. If the 18Z or 00Z HRRR generate snow into MS/AL north of the other models that would be an indicator of it
