SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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The problem the metro has is the main initial round now looks to go mainly NW and the coastal probably is too far east...there will be a screw zone between, there has been a slight SE move though on the some models the last 1-2 cycles so as someone said above, a mix of the GFS/RGEM is really the best for the metro itself
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The 1/2017 storm was odd in that a LP which originated off FL managed to come N enough to impact us, nobody had ever seen that before, if we see the same happen again and get a substantial snow event out of it it just adds to the list of odd things we see that we never used to
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Band will be south of stadium by 1-2pm I think, they just did not want people driving in it. I feel maybe having it at night would have been fine
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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming
SnowGoose69 replied to Jebman's topic in Mid Atlantic
System is heavily NRN stream involved...GFS/CMC might school the Euro on this one til we get inside 90-100. Vice versa looks like it may happen on Tuesday, tons of SRN stream activity and GFS now looks to be the most lost of any model with that one -
Inside 90 the Euro never makes large moves but it can just incrementally keep moving one direction...to me the most glaring thing is the RGEM/NAM agreeing somewhat past 60...that is not something we see too often, when you see that you have to be concerned the higher res models might be onto something.
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
SnowGoose69 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Models went through a bit of a pullback yesterday delaying the reset but overnight ensembles sort of went back to things looking fairly good again by 1/27-1/28 after 1/21-1/26 are fairly warm...the problem is the pattern is largely just a cold dry/warm wet look outside of New England...the NAO is positive and the western ridge is too far west on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS is better but the pattern still sort of screams that any big storm would cut N of the MA or SE US. Regardless, there won't be trees blooming in February this year across the SE US for the first time a good 7-8 years probably -
Ensembles overnight seem to have gone back to accelerating the return to a cool down again...problem is they do not agree on where the ridge is, GEFS too far west and we'd keep getting cutters but be cold...GEPS a bit better, EPS best...all have a +NAO
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The GFS finally came around to the idea of some snow...I'd be cautious somewhat about the "finger" band of snow...often times models do not see the coastal stealing the show just yet at this range...so anything over 2 inches with that feature is unlikely even if some runs try to show crazy amounts from it
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The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on. If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening
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The GFS did not take long to look totally different than literally every other model with an EC storm lol....through the UKIE with just the Euro to go its basically the only model lacking any of that precip associated with the vort getting north of the MA...that said the GEPS sorta does say the RGEM/CMC are out to lunch on that idea more or less. I have not seen a ton of instances though in recent years where the RGEM/NAM being sort of similar at 84 has led to a solution not somewhat close to the idea...its usually 80-20 the NAM is different than the RGEM at that range
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Any time you have two storms tracking in close proximity relatively speaking and one is significantly large or strong there’s a chance you will have some impact on the forecast of the 2nd event so it’s not out of the question at all
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Yeah its about as close to no change as you can get, it was better ever so slightly in some areas, worse in others but it likely would not have unfolded much different than 12z
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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?
SnowGoose69 replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
At this range the Euro got schooled by the GFS if I remember right...it was pretty far east and cold, at least up in this area past 96 hours then was gradually coming west and milder. I was concerned about a snowier solution 4-5 days out because the recent year normally amped Euro with any east coast storm in that 84-120 period was not amped relative to the CMC/GFS at that range- 449 replies
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This thing is unlikely to heart attack us anyway, this will be a slow death in all likelihood if we do totally lose it. Probably won't be til 36-48 til we can declare it dead due to the many moving parts
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Not totally surprised there are signs now the relaxation period could be maybe 2-3 days longer than ensembles showed a few days back and that was probably logical by the MJO progression. I think it may be 1/28/-1/29 before things really turn back on after it moderates
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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
SnowGoose69 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Its moving too fast. We have had some discussions about this on twitter/forums recent days that historically waves that move fast in mod or greater ENSOs have reduced impact. Also, the GEFS badly overdid the strength, all winter so far EPS has been too weak/GEFS too strong but this time the EPS almost looks like its forecast 10 days back for late Jan may win...both have also been too slow moving the waves -
One thing to note is the UKIE nailed this Midwest event from 4 days out...it tends to run hot and cold for months at a time...this is a largely different setup in a different part of the country but its worth noting its been the most amped now for probably 4-5 consecutive runs
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UKMET 987 S of central LI at 120...probably a ton of mixing with that solution. Looks like it goes from Pensacola to there from 96-120
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More so in El Nino patterns or patterns with strong NATL blocking you'll tend to see changes from Day 5 inside than you otherwise would because the faster flow in other patterns is likely to mess things up but the big cutter yet to happen is likely something that will change the evolution
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Yeah NYC would 100% be below 0 at 240 hours...that is about as good a setup as you get, air mass originates NNW and drops SSE and you have light NNW flow
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