SnowGoose69

Some signs the ensembles may be bailing on the SSW. IMO I have no issues with that, I think the pattern is otherwise going to be favorable anyway, give me a good few weeks with chances for snow and don't prolong the cold til like 4/15 which is a risk if we get a SSW.

JFK east went over to rain. LGA west I’m not sure they ever did. Maybe for an hour or so they got some light rain but then it went back below freezing. Most areas simply just dry slotted

It’s always smart to never go much over 3-5 in any snow to rain event here. While to can exceed that it takes an extreme circumstance such as the 93 blizzard or very intense banding. The November 2018 and 93 blizzard are only two snow to rain events I recall that were 6 or more. Some came close like January 99 December 03 January 91 but all were about 5-5.5

HUH? LGA 030000 METAR 022351Z 04007KT 6SM -RASN OVC030 M02/M04 A3033 RMK AO2 RAB50SNB48 SLP270 P0000 60000 T1017107211011 21028 56026

18Z Euro is a bit colder at the start for the 6th, would definitely have snow for several hours on the next event too

I think the SE ridge is gonna be pretty much toasted after 2/15, but I don't fear suppression really as of now. I think likely lack of a strong -NAO should prevent that

I had said days ago don't buy into the 8th setup, even the 6th will be all rain at the coast probably because the high position is bad. The 8th has a chance of starting as something frozen but more likely PL or FZRA. Thereafter is where snow is more likely but still probably more of a classic SWFE where it goes snow to rain

My recollection whoever ran the server did not pay the bill and it just died for like 1-2 weeks then all of a sudden a notice came that the new site was coming.

GFS probably out to lunch on Wednesday, I am still not sold on the 8th-9th either, I think it may be after that where the threats start. At least as far as snow

Haven't they been torchy the entire winter too? I seem to remember them showing January being like 2002 or 2012

The GEFS has been awful on it all winter and the last 3 days many of its members have moved pretty heavily towards the EPS idea so my hunch is the EPS is going to win again.

Its still early but I am becoming somewhat more optimistic perhaps we see a good 8-1-2 wave again. In the last 2 days its evident the EPS has really has the GEFS move towards it on the MJO idea, at least in the near term. The GEFS still seems to want to maybe kill the wave in 7 or late in 6 though.

I would not get too excited about 2/8. I suspect there is high risk that ends up well to the north. There is also a chance it could just be flat and nothing if again the whole progressiveness of the pattern is being underestimated at this range. Overall it requires nearly perfect timing of everything to work

Even the Op GFS you can see how inside D10-12 or so its capable of seeing the shift to the cold pushing east like the Euro/EPS showed but its just unable to resolve the idea beyond that of the Pac jet again probably preventing the SER from being able to flex. TBH even the EPS at 00Z after D13 tries again to build the SER. I think as long as the TPV is not in SE Canada like in Jan/The AO is not strongly negative/The PNA is not positive that the models are going to keep trying to default to a 2018 like SER after 260 hours

It was either Eric Webb or BAMWX who nailed it back in October. They kept showing how some of the indices indicated it would be a La Nina which more favored the poleward ridge over the E PAC/AK. I have not seen any research on this one, not sure if Don has any stats on it. Some others stated that a - AO/NAO episode in the 12/15-1/15 period or so, especially if its strong will tend to correlate with another episode the following winter in the same period. I cannot really make sense of that but indeed that period did have a -AO/NAO in 23-24 and 24-25 but we've seen cases where that does not occur. Example ragingly +NAO/AO in Dec 2001 and Dec 2011 following negative episodes in 2000 and 2010

I think thats why it was Ben Noll arguing on x last week he does not buy the sudden ENSO model shift to a La Nina next winter, he thinks it may be a rare case of the models being confused by the late peaking La Nina here, he is leaning towards a weak to moderate Nino I believe though none of the climate models show that now.

Same story continues on ensembles. Continuation at an attempted overdone SER D13-16 only to see it dampened as it gets closer to D10. Both the GEFS/EPS last night really push the ridge poleward by AK too post 240. Still think we see a couple of events in February, even at the coast.

General consensus on CMC/Euro and ensembles the last few cycles is positive around D10-11 but then the SER tries to come back, whether that really happens or not may depend upon the Pac jet as well as where the MJO is. If it leans weaker I think there is a better chance something like the Op Euro D10-16 is the general pattern, if its stronger something like the Op GFS D13-16 more likely. This winter the verification on the MJO has tended to be like 65-35 EPS vs prior years where it was about 92-8 GEFS

Change that to SE/TN Valley. Chicago/Detroit have had basically no snow this winter at all. I think Minneapolis is close to 30 inches below normal now too

I would not even call this a SE ridge. This is more of just a broad southern US ridge...most warmth will be centered more in places like OK/TX/AR/KS the next 2 weeks than SC/GA/FL/AL. This pattern looks more El Nino like to me over the US than it does La Nina

Probably the slowest advancement its had since like 2015. It won't move much either even if they do torch down there from 1/29-2/8 or so. After you have a month that cold it takes a good 12-14 days where you're averaging over 50 or so to really get things going. Even less year FL/GA/MS/AL/TX went way slower in Feb than they did in 21-23 because January had that cold stretch mid month.

The bad part is when bird flu eventually jumps to go human to human which is probably within the next 10 years or so we'll probably have a ton of people who just ignore it. The good news is I saw a fairly good program on TV a few weeks back that projects it likely won't be as deadly as COVID was, likely somewhere midway between the severity of the 2009 and 1919 outbreaks but its believed that since influenza causes bacterial vs viral pneumonia it'll be easier to control the secondary impacts. COVID causing viral pneumonia is really what was most problematic.

The one thing I will say is this winter the GEFS amplitude has tended to be a bit too strong so it might end up between the two

I might lean more towards the GEFS right now given its handled the MJO better. the GEPS/EPS probably are getting colder faster since they are not pushing it through 4-5-6

Some doctors believe it still does not work quite as well from getting it naturally from the sun but its actually harder to obtain it that way than we realize. Your body sometimes won't absorb it fully if you shower quickly after being out and also you sort of need to be in a bathing suit, shorts/t-shirt won't exactly expose enough of your skin