SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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That could ultimately end up missing us to the south. I’ve never loved the prospects of that event. I felt until models came to a one storm idea vs multiple waves we’d have no real range of where it was going.
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Main issue I see Saturday is once again sort of late developing as it approaches so we’ll have to see if we struggle with rates ahead of the changeover but overall it’s a more organized system than this one and the air mass is better. I’d still say metro is mostly 3-4 inches or less on that as of now though
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Even the NAM didn’t have JFK raining at 12Z. The main issue here as some posted yesterday was steady precip came in too late. You needed rates of like .05 an hour by 08-09Z or so and you’d have had a shot at maybe 2 inches even in areas around the city but it wasn’t til almost 11z in the end.
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The CMC storm cutting into PA probably is never going to happen. I'd be more worried about misses south late next week than being too far NW.
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18Z Euro no major change, it may have a bit more warm nose progressing in slightly faster but its within 20 miles of its 12Z track on everything
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Anything from 3-5 to 1 is on the table right now for the immediate metro. I don't really buy the markedly colder ensemble members right now as a track that gives us 6 plus from an event like this is rare.
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All comes down to can it begin snowing by like 08-09z. If it can get in that early I think 2-3 is very possible even in NYC but if its closer to 10-11z probably more like 1 inch. Could be a 2 hour period of pellets and still not sure what type of changeover really happens to rain outside of LI or south Queens and Brooklyn and Staten Island
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Chances are the boundary won’t sit there that long or there won’t be as much activity riding along it as the Euro shows.
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I think there could be some surprises with this one, especially NE NJ/L HV area...usually in these events there is a region that is near the base of the high axis that really overperforms and sometimes does better than areas that end up staying mostly snow like say BOS/ORH in this case who have deeper cold air in place. It typically is a combination of them sitting near the changeover line for a sustained period/not being as dry so virga is not as much of an issue and also frontogenesis. Does not happen in all SWFEs but it seems to be often enough I always watch that area near the wedge axis at the base or back side of the high for it.
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Probably explains why to be honest the GEFS/EPS pattern just don't look a whole lot like phase 8 beyond D10, the wave is too weak, although the 12Z GFS Op run post 240 does look more phase 8ish on the pattern
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This will end up as one storm, more like the 06Z AI shows. You might see some type of real wimpy weak front running wave as the AI also shows over NC/VA the day before, but this long drawn out slow multi wave idea I don't think happens
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I think in the end it ends up similar to tomorrow AM's storm. There are some aspects of the storm tomorrow I like better than I do this one, wave as a whole is weaker so mid-level WAA might not be as strong so it could surprise and stay snow longer. This one has the look of one that might be best to the north right now.
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I also think it ends up being one storm, not sure I believe the idea of a whole bunch of different waves riding the boundary based on how things have gone this winter.
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Even the GFS shows signs of snow breaking out over NJ/PA earlier at night as the HRRR/NAM show. Will have to watch this one closely for starting as early as 06-07z.
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Closest setup I can find to this event, 2/21/05. 3-5 fell most places. High was in a slightly better spot, albeit still not great. The SFC low re-developed though and we got a NE flow after being south. This time I think we'd get more sleet. Shows you how a pretty close setup acts differently with small changes. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2005/us0221.php
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Yeah I'd definitely not use its thermals but the idea its generating so much overrunning precip relative to the Euro is good
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The 18Z HRRR sure doubling down on its idea, no notable move towards the Euro. We'll see if the NAM begins to move towards it next few cycles
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The Op runs definitely have more SE ridging than the ensemble average which tells me there probably are alot of ensemble members D12-16 that are not nearly as troffy or suppressed in the east as the GEFS/EPS average is
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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
SE flow is just weak, it does not really crank til the system is already producing precip, and near shore water temps are now fairly cold. I am not sure even down here if anyone except Long Island and the south shore of NYC ever goes above 32. -
I agree with Walt on that 12th-14th storm, there is definitely a risk of suppression though I think suppression is the wrong word. As I said yesterday, its more "failed phasing" or disjointed setup than it really would be suppresison
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Wide range of risk on this one, anything from about the same as the 2/6 event to significantly snowier is possible.
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Its very possible places from N Queens on W-NW never go to rain on this event, while there is ESE flow, its light, the event is very fast moving and short duration and there may be too much wet bulbing initially to push temps over 32 til the precip is almost over. LGA is roughly 32/21 at the start, if they fall to 28 I really doubt an 8-10kts wind from 090-110 blowing across a large area of sleet/snow on the ground is going to get them over freezing before the event exits. I still think there is mostly sleet though after maybe 2 hours of snow at the start.
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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential
SnowGoose69 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
06/18z Euro runs the last few years have tended to do some strange stuff. Should not be happening with today's model ingests but I've seen it more than enough times to know its a tendency at this point
