SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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We'd get something on Thursday or Wednesday probably but again it would be a slop type event. Any all snow event after Tuesday's chance would be the following week into the end of the month when the pattern overall looks more classic.
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00z ICON barely even hits DC lol. When I said I thought this would miss south or COULD a few days ago I meant like maybe TTN-BWI, not Richmond
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It needs to be an approaching system from the south. Overrunning events that come from the SW or W here rarely are big. 2/8/94 was due to flukey mesoscale banding but generally its the southern approachers with a high up over Maine that are the biggest like November 2018. They tend to be rare though, in the last 30 plus years I can only remember 6-7 events that did that.
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It bombs once in a great while on storms like this. I recall using it a few winters back and basically going mostly sleet and we got like 5 inches of snow before it flipped over. Every now and then it’s totally out to lunch on the warm push. We can hope it’s doing that here
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The Euro is very late on the precip arrival too but is way too cold aloft so it has snow til like 05-06Z in NYC. I just don’t see that happening. I issued a forecast of 1.5 inches of snow followed by a half inch to an inch of sleet
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Delta is least likely to cancel flights but not sure you can rebook with another airline. Some carriers have agreements with others, I want to say JBU has no rebook agreements with anyone nor does SWA
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12/19/08 continues to be a remarkably close analog to this storm. There was a transfer from a primary, LGA saw 4, JFK 2, HPN-BDR 6-7. This event does not have the high in as ideal a spot to the north which is why I'd take amounts down due to more sleet.
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Euro even more south now. I have next to no confidence still since we lack a -NAO and have a SE ridge here. The pattern otherwise argues this should be somewhat squashed and compacted but the 18Z Euro shows what could happen and I have seen happen before in these setups. Interior areas like E PA and SE NY get missed but as the surface low gets more east off the Delmarva it can ride close enough for the coastal areas to see snow. This event from 2/1985 is a similar match, parts of LI saw 6 inches. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0205.php https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1985/us0206.php
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It was last storm too and was right but not sure that was dumb luck more than anything. as some said, the extensive convection that formed in the SRN Oh Valley could have been why the QPf ended up so lousy here
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Its just nonsensical across the board, slow transfer yet somehow it only pushes the mid-level WAA into like SE NY And CT late, it keeps CNJ and NYC all snow which could not possibly happen if the whole transfer was that late.
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HRRR still seems too cold aloft much like the last event, its even got snow down to like Trenton, the slow evolution was shown on the Euro too
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The problem is Tuesday is influenced by tomorrow's event somewhat and most definitely next Friday is influenced by Tuesday. I still think Tuesday is a south coast event on southward, but I don't feel its gonna be lost completely to PHL-DCA like last month's system.
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The Euro shows what I posted earlier, the warm nose punches harder there than it even does for NYC itself, I doubt NYC is +SN at 06Z still as the Euro shows but my guess is there is going to be some location between NE NJ and SW CT tomorrow night where the warm nose stalls for a good 2 hours and there will be heavy snow just N-NE of that.
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Honestly the 3km NAM does not get sleet that far north really, it more or less HPN/BDR snow all event. It does get sleet further north west because they are under the WAA influence before the transfer, we could see a case here where somewhere like Orient Point does better than say Morristown
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Yeah, in order to get over 2 places like EWR need the period from 23-02Z to be pretty snowy, if its very light they'll end up primarily sleet from 03-07z when the best precip rates are. Unlike last storm due to the transfer the winds will likely back to 030-050, we could see LGA/EWR possibly get to 33-34 for a time and then drop back to 30-32.
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The HRRR has something going on. For example, its showing sleet in places like Detroit then you check the sounding and its -2C at the warmest anywhere
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To be honest I forecast for the entire eastern US and both have been bad this winter overall. The Euro has more or less owned the show this year inside 36 hours.
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The NAM idea made more sense last storm because it was truly much more disorganized. It barely had an organized precip shield til it was almost overhead. This system is a bit faster to get going. I also don’t think 4-6 is realistic at all for NYC, I would only go 2-4 right now and closer to 2 than 4
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Likely have to wait til this first storm moves out, again, if this one tomorrow and Sunday is more south and we see mainly snow even down close to the city it probably increases the risk this event on Tuesday ends up south. I've sort of been leaning towards this being an NYC south event for a few days.
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Even the UKMET came slightly south from 12z so it likely comes south as well, at this range though it means little, if it did this tomorrow night I think its more of an issue, there's a big difference in an across the board swing at 80-90 hours than 120
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Funny how the HRRR at 48 is a straight up torch and way north this time, meanwhile it was way south and an ice box with today's event. NAM looks close to the Euro/GFS overall
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The Euro/AI are probably less impressive on the 11th event somewhat because they're flatter with the event that occurs before it on Sunday. Its not the whole story but I think its a big part of why. I still lean towards Sunday being more GFSish though I am concerned about the AI solution being where its at, its honestly not botched an event inside 72 yet this winter
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The Tuesday one largely depends on what Sunday does, you can even see that on the Euro/AI to a degree, they're noticeably flatter with Tuesday since they're farthest south Sunday.
