SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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I think LGA/JFK stayed all snow, JFK may have had PL mixed in at times, it was anticipated we'd change to rain and we never did but the March sun angle and marginal temps led to tons of melting and compacting. I measured 7 at the time in Astoria and LGA reported close to that but if that event was 4-5 weeks earlier we'd have had a foot
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I noticed today many records being broken in the SE US were from 94, of course back then the SE Ridge was overpowered fast and most of those areas finished the month barely above normal in the end, they'll be way way above this time in a totally different climate, even if the final 8 days average below
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I think they're hedging in NYC/LI because the Euro/NAM but IMO the Euro/NAM have always had issues with south biases on SWFE type storms forever, its not as bad as it once was with the NAM, the Euro has gotten worse though with this last event it oddly enough was a bit north til the final 24-36 hours. I'd have left NYC out for now.
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There's a ton of notable events in the analogs but to me none of them resemble this. The problem with CIPS is it tends to grab by region so the pattern overall may not be close. 3/19/92 has some similarities but the pattern was may more favorable in Canada that kept that storm more south. To me 12/19/08 is actually the closest match to this storm. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2008/us1219.php https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F060&rundt=2025020612&map=thbCOOP72
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I think its more the concern that 6 inches is a possibility, albeit a low one. That said, to me a watch was more warranted on the event 2 weeks ago at this range than it is here.
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That could ultimately end up missing us to the south. I’ve never loved the prospects of that event. I felt until models came to a one storm idea vs multiple waves we’d have no real range of where it was going.
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Main issue I see Saturday is once again sort of late developing as it approaches so we’ll have to see if we struggle with rates ahead of the changeover but overall it’s a more organized system than this one and the air mass is better. I’d still say metro is mostly 3-4 inches or less on that as of now though
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Even the NAM didn’t have JFK raining at 12Z. The main issue here as some posted yesterday was steady precip came in too late. You needed rates of like .05 an hour by 08-09Z or so and you’d have had a shot at maybe 2 inches even in areas around the city but it wasn’t til almost 11z in the end.
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The CMC storm cutting into PA probably is never going to happen. I'd be more worried about misses south late next week than being too far NW.
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18Z Euro no major change, it may have a bit more warm nose progressing in slightly faster but its within 20 miles of its 12Z track on everything
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Anything from 3-5 to 1 is on the table right now for the immediate metro. I don't really buy the markedly colder ensemble members right now as a track that gives us 6 plus from an event like this is rare.
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All comes down to can it begin snowing by like 08-09z. If it can get in that early I think 2-3 is very possible even in NYC but if its closer to 10-11z probably more like 1 inch. Could be a 2 hour period of pellets and still not sure what type of changeover really happens to rain outside of LI or south Queens and Brooklyn and Staten Island
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Chances are the boundary won’t sit there that long or there won’t be as much activity riding along it as the Euro shows.
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I think there could be some surprises with this one, especially NE NJ/L HV area...usually in these events there is a region that is near the base of the high axis that really overperforms and sometimes does better than areas that end up staying mostly snow like say BOS/ORH in this case who have deeper cold air in place. It typically is a combination of them sitting near the changeover line for a sustained period/not being as dry so virga is not as much of an issue and also frontogenesis. Does not happen in all SWFEs but it seems to be often enough I always watch that area near the wedge axis at the base or back side of the high for it.
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Probably explains why to be honest the GEFS/EPS pattern just don't look a whole lot like phase 8 beyond D10, the wave is too weak, although the 12Z GFS Op run post 240 does look more phase 8ish on the pattern
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This will end up as one storm, more like the 06Z AI shows. You might see some type of real wimpy weak front running wave as the AI also shows over NC/VA the day before, but this long drawn out slow multi wave idea I don't think happens
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I think in the end it ends up similar to tomorrow AM's storm. There are some aspects of the storm tomorrow I like better than I do this one, wave as a whole is weaker so mid-level WAA might not be as strong so it could surprise and stay snow longer. This one has the look of one that might be best to the north right now.
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I also think it ends up being one storm, not sure I believe the idea of a whole bunch of different waves riding the boundary based on how things have gone this winter.
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Even the GFS shows signs of snow breaking out over NJ/PA earlier at night as the HRRR/NAM show. Will have to watch this one closely for starting as early as 06-07z.
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Closest setup I can find to this event, 2/21/05. 3-5 fell most places. High was in a slightly better spot, albeit still not great. The SFC low re-developed though and we got a NE flow after being south. This time I think we'd get more sleet. Shows you how a pretty close setup acts differently with small changes. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2005/us0221.php
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Yeah I'd definitely not use its thermals but the idea its generating so much overrunning precip relative to the Euro is good
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The 18Z HRRR sure doubling down on its idea, no notable move towards the Euro. We'll see if the NAM begins to move towards it next few cycles
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The Op runs definitely have more SE ridging than the ensemble average which tells me there probably are alot of ensemble members D12-16 that are not nearly as troffy or suppressed in the east as the GEFS/EPS average is
