SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Most of the CIPS analogs were light events, only one that is terribly close at 500 is 1/18-19/84 which was around 3-4 most of the area. Many were inland snow events, but way inland because the whole trof axis in the east was much further west than it is here. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php
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The NAM totally sucked last week too with the storm in the south, not sure why its suddenly having such major issues, been awhile since I've seen it do this
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We are still far out buy the Euro still tends to be too low on QPF in my mind on any system that’s entraining Atlantic or Gulf moisture. It was the only model to accurately depict the snow in the MA two weeks ago because that was a rare case of a W-E moving storm where you weren’t entraining a ton of Atlantic moisture into it.
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yeah to me that event is close to dead as far as coming up the coast. I’ve been hitting the 73-89 drum on that for 3 days. Canadian may have nailed this one up here but it’s gonna bomb I think on its idea down there
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I think it’s getting late early for places in northern MS/AL. Not necessarily the same in GA/SC. I think ATL/GSP may still be alive albeit barely. This has potential to have a late movement up the coast still where those areas may get hit though I still think I’d rather be in Augusta or Columbia
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I still cannot believe how different the GFS is in the SE past 120 compared to every other model
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The GFS/GEFS difference for the storm on the Gulf Coast last 120 could be the craziest difference I’ve seen from the Op to an ensemble on a single model run inside day 7 ever
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I’ve wondered with Denver where the person who measures is at since there isn’t exactly anyone nearby as you said
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Yeah it’s not even close to the Op. that’s extremely rare to see with the GFS honestly. They usually are in tandem but there are some setups where there can be wild differences from the Op to the ensembles
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It also has no event in the south after that so it’s most likely wrong
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No matter how many times that SE ridge keeps trying to appear beyond about 290 hours it keeps getting flattened or pushed east once we get closer in time
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As good as the AI has been its been jumpy post 120. It keeps going more with the GFS idea of the later wave and the system digging for China. I am not sure I buy that. I think something between the UKMET/ICON where it ejects along the Gulf from TX vs coming up out of the oil rigs is more likely.
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I think all 4 are someone who lives just off the airport within 1 mile. BOS you'll notice never puts 4 groups or SNINCR remarks in METARs during snow events as those other airports do not either. If you see that you know they are not measuring there.
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No it was the 06. I believe ISP measures at the airport. As far as I know the only airports nationwide where the measuring is not done at the field are BOS/PHL/DTW/DEN. There may be others I am not aware of but those all got moved due to bad measuring and JFK was close to being moved too
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Hope the EURO AI is right. No QPF available but probably is like 2-5 inches. Its been so good the last month or two inside of 120. A bit erratic beyond that and I feel the Euro/EPS has beaten it from 120-180 but it was really the only model that accurately depicted the SRN US Event last week from days out
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I still like the idea right now of places like BHM/ATL being on the north end of this and it being more a central AL-GA-coastal SC NC event. But I am still wary of the fact that these days these cold air masses tend to be overdone on models at this range, if thats the case again something near or just south of this previous event is likely.
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CMC and ICON following the Eric Webb theory, he said he felt the boundary was gonna be slower to press east than modeled and hence we'd see a more bomby type low though he said risk the coast could be rainy if it was too slow
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The ICON honestly from D5-8 the last month has been better than the GFS. This may be a bit crazy for the moment though
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18Z Op Euro was gonna look nothing like the 18Z GFS if it ran past 144, thats for sure
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I think that event is another southern event. The SE forum was worried about the FZRA and it moving NW I said there's a better chance that event goes December 89 than trends NW but its still far enough out and the first event impacts that one. Depending how it evolves it might sharpen the trof too much in the East which would then prevent the wave from being able to eject from Texas across the Gulf. The trof needs to be more meridional from DFW-ATL or you typically cannot eject the system and it buries.
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I recall 88, the warm nose was totally missed. I also remember one in the early 90s, forecast was basically nothing and there was 5 inches at ATL. I think it was supposed to miss well to the south in Macon.
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I think you'd see sleet there. I recall the Feb 2014 event I was forecasting for the SE and we all thought it would be ZR but the air mass was just so cold aloft the warm nose did not verify as strong and that to me was more a wedging setup, this looks like a classic slider storm at the moment more so with a high located in a better spot than it was last week
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Its more likely given the setup in place this takes more of an 89 or 73 track than it does coming way NW. I'd lean more towards this being a storm from coastal NC back through SC/GA/AL/MS now than I would TN/NC/VA but its still far out
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It did from about 96-140 before the most recent upgrade. This winter season so far that bias seems to be gone
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It would be more snow or sleet probably given the quality of the air mass in place ahead of it, that degree of ZR makes no sense really in that setup taken literally
