SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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I'd still watch NYE with the FROPA, the RGEM shows what can and has happened before with those setups, a small surface low forming off the coast on the front and some areas, especially S and E portions can see accumulating snow
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Next 5-7 days I don't see anything but something could show up after 1/4 or 1/5. Still think 1/10 or 1/12 and after is where the major risk begins
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Probably the longer it takes the +PNA to develop the less February ends up mild because it tends to be a difficult pattern to flip out of rapidly, so if it does not establish til around 1/15 I could see it being 2/10 or 2/15 before we really begin to get that setup. In recent really mild Februarys in the La Nina years January has tended to be cold from the very beginning. I think outside of the Lakes/NE its going to be 1/12 or so til we see the cold anomalies get down into the SE/TN Valley/Plains
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Another narrow miss of the 79 from 1991 today. Just seems to me 80 is not possible there in December unless its full sunshine and deep WSW flow. Today was just a bit too cloudy. Tomorrow definitely too many clouds so probably 73-75 is best that could happen.
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Does not happen often. 93/94 obviously 2/8 and 2/11 is the most memorable case. 95-96 I do not recall any really, seemed like the close together events were small and melted and the big ones had separation and we had a massive thaw too. 09-10 I think had a couple of instances.
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The 18Z RRFS was pretty close on the sleet idea too. It had the line briefly over NYC in the evening for an hour or two. So at least it seems the RRFS is better than the HRRR on warm advection aloft.
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I think they also use an estimate for the daily snowfall as they do not measure at both 12am and 1am. They did for awhile but for the last 4-5 years have stopped doing that. The official daily total was 1.7 I think. I have no idea what they used to do pre 92-93. I was told years back they just had the HMT/Intern drive up to a spot in the park from the NWS office at Rockefeller and measure at 12/1/7/1/7 respectively.
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This has to be the first time in ages I can recall the Euro/NAM both actually getting QPF right in a storm, in general they're insanely too dry/wet respectively. Its strange how both somehow got it right the QPF would be way lower than many other guidance parameters had
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
SnowGoose69 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
JB with yet another totally random X post lol. He says only 5 Januarys since 75 with the MJO spending 23 or more days in the null phase. All were quite cold in the East/MW/Plains. 80 82 96 00 03. Problem with that post is who knows if the BOMM/EPS are possibly accurate out that far and only 1 of those 5 years comes close to our current ENSO (96) -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
SnowGoose69 replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Hard to say. The GEFS really looks nothing like the EPS/GEPS. I think at some point after 1/12-1/15 we go into a pattern than might be more suppression risk but not sure before that. -
You don’t usually see widespread “clear air busts” anymore these days. These types of cases where a small sector of the impact region gets screwed is more common vs the entire storm taking a track 100 miles off at the last second
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Oddly enough snow growth based on ASOS reports relative to radar echoes and ground reports seems good. You would not think thats the case given the area went over to sleet for a time though.
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That area might actually hit LI. I still think places as far west as the Nassau/Suffolk border could do well but I'd think it'll swing too far E for NYC and you have to expect given its coming from the NNW some degree of downslope will happen
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The sleet changeover did not even matter much as it stands now. The 5 boroughs would have had maybe 1-1.5 so far had that not happened. The QPF bust is really the issue. We'd have seen 5 plus easily in and near the city even with that brief surge of the sleet
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I got a report of 2.4 from someone in Central Park about 15 minutes ago. I don't think that is correct, would think something more near like 1.5 is realistic right now
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They'd actually get over 4 easily probably if the back edge of this was not so quickly approaching. Its mostly all snow there now once again
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Ratios are not as good either as I thought they'd be. POU has had .38 liquid, friend lives about 2 mi from the airport he has had only 4.9 so far, similar readings on LI it seems where its about 10 or 11:1. I felt maybe 15 was possible especially up in the LHV
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Long Island is probably still fine. Not sure about Queens Brooklyn Bronx or NYC though unless that line stops like the 12/3Km NAM showed
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Given the radar over NYC and NE NJ I’m surprised most stations aren’t reporting anything
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There were some runs of the RGEM and NAM that suggested those areas and even into middlesex could mix for the first two hours before heavier rates pushed the line back south and west
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I feel its always too dry with the exception of deep lows. Its not always a huge error but .25-.30 too low can be 4-5 inches if you have a 15:1 event.
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I think NYC finally gets 4, whether its 4.1 or 7.2 I don't know but I'd lean closer to the 4 for sure right now though.
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The Euro has been low on QPF in most significant storms so far to impact the Midwest/Lakes/NE this last 2 months so I am not surprised to see it doing the same again.
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It won't even be that, it'll be 4 hours from like 7-11pm. I think after that its just snizzle/pellets/frz drizzle, even in SW CT and the LHV where they may get 7-10 inches that'll happen. Its rare to see big overrunning type events be snow all the way through, even in areas which get hit hard
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The GEFS/EPS still strongly disagree on virtually every indice. GEFS likes more of a -AO/NAO/WPO/PNA whereas the EPS is way less negative on the AO/NAO and same story on the WPO/PNA
