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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    I think you need to wait til Thu AM to know. The 18Z Euro looked better for ATL, cannot put much stock in the GFS, NAM is out of range. I think once the NAM/RGEM are inside 48 we'd have a better idea. The flatter this is the more likely that area sees mainly snow but at same time they'd have hard time getting over 3-4 inches at best.
  2. SnowGoose69
    I find it funny the CMC/RGEM/UKMET all said I'm out tonight and did not run UKMET finally is running
  3. SnowGoose69
    Correct. This forum will be exploding at like 5am Friday over GA/SC that its going to start snowing any minute because the radar will be blossoming everywhere but it likely won't reach the ground for 2-3 hours after. The models only show precip when its expect to reach the ground
  4. SnowGoose69
    The funny thing is the 18Z Euro had more snow here than the 00Z GFS did
  5. SnowGoose69
    Usually that layer though from like 680-850 which shows as -1C with strong SW flow verifies way milder in the end. Often 1-2C milder
  6. SnowGoose69
    EURO AI went more OTS on this run
  7. SnowGoose69
    That may be possible. The wedge is lousy but the air mass in place and nearby is good. I still think ATL's snow event comes next week. Setup and position of high to me is way better.
  8. SnowGoose69
    I got a bunch of texts about the NAVGEM. It still does usually end up more progressive than other models. I think that was just an off run but its interesting, if it continues to be that amped up I've seen cases where that ends up being an indicator other models move north or west
  9. SnowGoose69
    I'd go mostly pellets ending as light FZRA in ATL with some snow at the start. I don't think due to the pattern over the Atlantic this is going to climb much more north. The one thing I would watch for is less shearing out of the system as it comes east. I do think the QPF values on the Euro for example are likely too low
  10. SnowGoose69
    30-40 miles probably. Assuming we see no north shift I'd say places 15-20 miles north of the north side of 285 would be mostly snow
  11. SnowGoose69
    Euro for ATL about what I've been expecting. SN briefly, then SNPL, then PL, then FZRA. The wedge may indeed break and they get to 34 but by then I think the event has ended anyway
  12. SnowGoose69
    It verifies usually just behind the Euro but thats 500 heights. It can show funny things for precip type/QPF so usually you want to use it just for track
  13. SnowGoose69
    I don't think the Euro will be as flat as the UKMET. The UKMET was a bit too flat with this last system too. Its also missing the snow across the MA region which I think happens with the vort/jet
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah ORD/DTW/MSP all pretty low on snow this winter so far. Obviously BOS too
  15. SnowGoose69
    Can keeps getting kicked. I am convinced we never see a sustained torch this winter at this point, maybe mid February onward finally there is a change but not happening consistently so far on anything in next 2 weeks
  16. SnowGoose69
    GGEM has more of a wedge over NGA/ATL than the RGEM which tells me typical RGEM long range issues, beyond 42-48 its not terribly reliable in a mixed precip event
  17. SnowGoose69
    This winter is so 1980s....NYC could be nickled and dimed to like 6-7 inches of snow by 1/10. We have not seen that in a long time
  18. SnowGoose69
    I felt the NAM/RGEM were not the best if you want snow in ATL. Both seemed to also move away from the wedge strength indicating it might just be a 1-2 hours of pellets/snow to begin and then right over to rain. We'll see if the Euro moves that way. RGEM/NAM just are not terribly reliable beyond 48, the NAM is wonky and the RGEM has a tendency to be overamped or too warm beyond 48.
  19. SnowGoose69
    The combo of that jet and the vort I think it snows for sure. I'd rather be us right now than SNE probably.
  20. SnowGoose69
    I think the Euro is too weak with the system as it goes from TX to GA. I'd go way bigger on QPF and dynamics overall. That might have some impact as to what happens down the line although probably the NRN stream differences make that meaningless anyway
  21. SnowGoose69
    The Euro is too wimpy IMO with the southern stream wave that crosses the Gulf. I don't buy that it'll just try to fizzle as it goes across SRN/GA and NRN FL. Not sure this makes a ton of difference in the end up here but I'd be hyping QPF alot more in TN/AL/MS/GA than the Euro shows.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Euro is just less amped up overall so snow falls further south than some of the other models. ATL would see a couple of inches before PL and FZRAPL on the Euro. They don't see much snow at all on the other models as it begins as FZRAPL
  23. SnowGoose69
    Not much different, it generates light snow due to some combo of the northern stream wave or the jet max overhead but its really not moved a ton since 12z. The Euro is probably too weak with the southern stream wave, its QPF amounts down in AL/GA/TN/MS seem too low to me in this setup
  24. SnowGoose69
    I've been on the Euro track train but I am somewhat worried because the GFS has owned the Euro/CMC before when the one piece thats been the key involves something to do with the northern stream and its the reverse if its southern stream involvement. Euro is usually right and GFS wrong there
  25. SnowGoose69
    The wedge likely would press well back W and S of ATL, the GFS resolution just won't see it at this range, once the NAM starts coming into range we should see that more
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