SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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The HRRR is usually too cold at this range but the good news is it does show the meat of the heaviest QPF being over the area...if that verifies we have a shot but these things will tend to end up more NE in time. I'd like being probably in SW CT at this point in time
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Thermals on even the high res guidance are pretty poor here. I'd be fairly surprised if anything measurable fell in the metro itself UNLESS the axis of the IT feature ends up dead over the top and you could probably drop 2-3 wet inches of snow before by 9am it melted
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The NAM sort of shows what can happen if the system does not occlude at a crazy fast rate...if you ran that thing to 96 it would be insane probably. I do wonder if maybe globals are attempting to occlude this too quickly upon the transfer and redevelopment. Even the RGEM does not seem to do it by 84, its just simply way way south
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This is a case where you just need things to be perfect where the transfer is late enough that the system bombs in the right spot and it does not occlude too ast
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Its cold enough probably so long as we don't see it track way north like the NAM is showing
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Nothing else is quite as far S with the track of storm 1 as the Euro was, the CMC does sort of lean that way...the 06Z Icon did move south somewhat, the NAM continues to be way north
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Bradford PA has had .36 liquid in 2 hours...probably only 3.2 inches of snow or snow with the ratios but this thing is potent in N PA
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Chances are they'd lose it next week or sometime in the next 2 anyway but even getting 0.3 or 0.4 tonight makes it really hard to hold onto it
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This is a case where those in the southern half of the metro can hope that the tendency for these compact dynamic systems to tick 25 or so miles north of the average model depiction happens.
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It sometimes does well with convective events but I rarely look at it otherwise
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
SnowGoose69 replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
The RGEM still basically has poo for E PA and NJ but I am ready to toss it somewhat as the Euro at 18Z ticked wetter and N and the HRRR being as far N as it is is a red flag, it really has not budged on its last few 48 hour runs -
The RGEM is probably going to be wrong at this stage, especially across C-E PA...even the Euro at 18Z was bringing decent snows into N-C PA. I'm still not confident on what happens E of there
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The HRRR being this stubborn is concerning for sure from a forecasting standpoint. It has had tendencies to catch these types of events in the past
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The 18Z Euro did move to destroy the S/W a tad less...no doubt its juicier than runs were 24 hours ago over PA but we still need decent changes with this.
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The tendency the last 3 years is when we finally get the UKIE on board the Euro goes the other way, so I am sure the 12Z Euro will either be congrats Kalamazoo or Bermuda
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BTW The UKMET is in the CMC/Euro came of nothing this far north with the clipper either.
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Put it this way. I'd rather be us than PHL or DCA, thats for sure
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It at least does not have nothing altogether though. The CMC/RGEM basically wash all the precip out in central PA. I can at least respect a Euro idea of simply missing south but bringing snow to the SNJ Coast
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Its a fairly massive outlier at the moment though...even the 12Z HRRR has something at 40-48
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I'd be uncomfortable saying anything higher than 6 in DTW as of now but if a bit of a south adjustment happens 8-10 is possible
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This will be a good event to do an over under on Logan. Hard to see them getting over 3-4 but 5 miles inland is another story
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Underrated issue with this storm too is the convection over the OH and TN Valley region is probably going to have some sort of impact on track and moisture
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The HRRR has a pretty bad mid level cold bias beyond 12-18 so I usually lean more warm in the mid levels but even so its worlds away from the NAM
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It blew the event down here though a few days ago til basically 18-24 out...it insisted nothing for the north shore of LI or Queens more or less and they ended up with 4-5 in some areas
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It can but the 80s was more bad luck than anything. But as a whole it will result in less storminess and usually less tropical activity
