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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    GGEM has more of a wedge over NGA/ATL than the RGEM which tells me typical RGEM long range issues, beyond 42-48 its not terribly reliable in a mixed precip event
  2. SnowGoose69
    This winter is so 1980s....NYC could be nickled and dimed to like 6-7 inches of snow by 1/10. We have not seen that in a long time
  3. SnowGoose69
    I felt the NAM/RGEM were not the best if you want snow in ATL. Both seemed to also move away from the wedge strength indicating it might just be a 1-2 hours of pellets/snow to begin and then right over to rain. We'll see if the Euro moves that way. RGEM/NAM just are not terribly reliable beyond 48, the NAM is wonky and the RGEM has a tendency to be overamped or too warm beyond 48.
  4. SnowGoose69
    The combo of that jet and the vort I think it snows for sure. I'd rather be us right now than SNE probably.
  5. SnowGoose69
    I think the Euro is too weak with the system as it goes from TX to GA. I'd go way bigger on QPF and dynamics overall. That might have some impact as to what happens down the line although probably the NRN stream differences make that meaningless anyway
  6. SnowGoose69
    The Euro is too wimpy IMO with the southern stream wave that crosses the Gulf. I don't buy that it'll just try to fizzle as it goes across SRN/GA and NRN FL. Not sure this makes a ton of difference in the end up here but I'd be hyping QPF alot more in TN/AL/MS/GA than the Euro shows.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Euro is just less amped up overall so snow falls further south than some of the other models. ATL would see a couple of inches before PL and FZRAPL on the Euro. They don't see much snow at all on the other models as it begins as FZRAPL
  8. SnowGoose69
    Not much different, it generates light snow due to some combo of the northern stream wave or the jet max overhead but its really not moved a ton since 12z. The Euro is probably too weak with the southern stream wave, its QPF amounts down in AL/GA/TN/MS seem too low to me in this setup
  9. SnowGoose69
    I've been on the Euro track train but I am somewhat worried because the GFS has owned the Euro/CMC before when the one piece thats been the key involves something to do with the northern stream and its the reverse if its southern stream involvement. Euro is usually right and GFS wrong there
  10. SnowGoose69
    The wedge likely would press well back W and S of ATL, the GFS resolution just won't see it at this range, once the NAM starts coming into range we should see that more
  11. SnowGoose69
    Well the EUROAI is at least not as big a swing and miss as the Op Euro so we have that going for us
  12. SnowGoose69
    The AVN would make everything a rain storm all the time, it was crazy. Back in 94 it had both the 2/11 and 1/26 events as rain 3 days out. It kept driving everything too far north when there was confluence of strong highs in place. It got better in the later years before it merged to the GFS
  13. SnowGoose69
    October 2002. The 93 blizzard the Euro/UKMET nailed it from like 144 hours out, the MSLP was too weak but they had like a 988mb low off the Delmarva. 96 everything was a near miss til Thursday then the Euro was the most west but nothing else was close til early Saturday
  14. SnowGoose69
    GEFS seems like all winter it wants to keep yanking things too far west. I see the GEPS is now more east today as well. I wonder if the NAO/AO just tank again and that results in a trof that extends to the east coast as the SER won't develop
  15. SnowGoose69
    High res models probably overplayed the banding but even back into the OH Valley/Midwest there was some underperforming in some spots and overperforming in others
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah probably. I said yesterday I'd be more likely to believe this climbs the coast in March than early January.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The one positive is the GFS does generally own the other models in regards to NRN stream activity so perhaps its onto something there which has this phase/move up the coast more but I still lean closer to this being flatter though maybe not as flat as the UKMET
  18. SnowGoose69
    We used to have a rule forecasting for ATL and it still applies today as the GFS wedge resolution still is not great that if the GFS could see a wedge beyond 72 hours in ATL you were in big trouble. In this case it not only sees it but has it almost to the metro. The CMC which tends to have better resolution on that feature has the mixed precip back into Bama
  19. SnowGoose69
    I was surprised to see how low the totals ended up down in the MA. Felt for sure more 8-12s would happen
  20. SnowGoose69
    The Euro more or less has that same idea as does the UKMET because the whole thing shears out as it moves east
  21. SnowGoose69
    Newark now snowing
  22. SnowGoose69
    The 06Z euro is pretty much what I anticipated this storm would do which is just slide out and maybe not even be a major threat for Richmond or Raleigh. But a high percentage of the ensembles at least still want to have this come up the coast
  23. SnowGoose69
    Most locations began seeing snow once ceilings fell to 4000ft so certainly areas near Newark and just WSW of there are close now. It could be another half or to an hour before areas more east do
  24. SnowGoose69
    It happened in February 89, VA/DelMarva got like 20 inches in 7 days
  25. SnowGoose69
    I only see it through 96 but it looks like it might be very amped in the end possibly. Hard to tell through that point
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