SnowGoose69

On 2/11/94 my district as always just was refusing to close. Finally the parents calling in furious led to them at like 750am saying they were closed. My mom had already decided no way was I going in that day. We were always one of the hardest districts on LI to close back in the 80s/90s. We went from Jan 87 to 2/9/94 without a single snow day which was remarkable. Weekend events helped that out somewhat but still there were plenty of bad week day events where we stayed open and almost 90% of LI was closed. Setauket was another district notorious for never wanting to close back in the day.

I have definitely noticed a tendency for the Pacific or GOA pattern in late November to often end up carrying through the winter. I had never checked the stats on it but it seems more frequently it translates to Dec-Feb whereas the NAO in late November can mean nothing at all. Obviously 2 notable cases that failed though were 89-90 and 93-94. 89 was about as perfect as it could get and went to hell after December. 1993 is the only case I recall where the AK vortex was a mainstay from late Nov into mid December and then retrograded and never came back the rest of the winter. I had written off that winter by 12/15 based on that pattern and even CPC which back in those days tended to do much more scientific winters forecast a very mild winter for 93-94.

Most sources have not yet even updated their sites to show it. Accuwx has yet to. As a matter of fact Accuwx had to overhaul their site just to get the Euro to display yesterday as the upgrade messed with things enough it was not displaying anything but thicknesses.

If La Nina truly fades to nearly nothing or fails to really even hold weak status there is a better chance February is not as torchy though not a guarantee. We've had plenty of leaning cold phase neutral winters with bad Februarys too

Yeah right now looks like maybe we can carry a workable pattern 11/22 til 12/5 or so as my hunch is the -NAO and the west ridge won't just snap off by 12/1 but probably 12/5-12/20 is going to be bad, how bad depends on the PDO. If its -1.5 and not -3.5 something can sneak in if we assume Canada is not torched like last year.

This still requires a ton of bad luck for this to LF in Florida. The amount of looping around that goes on in most ensembles down there would require nothing short of a miracle for this not to landfall somewhere and then also split the Cuba/Yucatan gap as well as somehow be a major hurricane

That explains why I guess the 06Z run has all sorts of parameters missing on many sources

There it is!!!! NYC 291800 METAR 291751Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN018 14/12 A3045 RMK AO2 RAE50 SLP301 P0001 60001 T01440122 10172 20128 58018

Recently it has not worked. October in 2006 2012 2013 2014 2019 2021 2023 all were very negative and the winters were positive. It seems lately you want October to maybe average less negative if the winter is going to be negative. October 2020 it was only slightly negative but honestly we've had so few negative NAO winters lately who knows if its reliable

KTPA 100318Z AUTO 34047G81KT 2SM +RA OVC016 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 35084/0306 PRESRR P0027 $

Now we got one at SPG over 100mph KSPG 100233Z AUTO 35041G88KT 3/4SM +RA BR VV010 22/22 A2894 RMK AO2 PK WND 34088/0229 P0094 T02220217

I didn’t think they’d get this much wind with the eye going south of them. Has to be quite a bit of tree damage since there are many non palms there

TPA now gusting 71kts SPG gusted to 82kts. Sensor at PIE has died

Possible places like Winter Haven/Lakeland/Bartow see worse winds that the Tampa metro based on the way the eye wall could track from east northeast of Sarasota

SRQ came back online. Peak wins about 15 minutes ago of 96mph KSRQ 092353Z 10046G81KT 2 1/2SM RA BR BKN011 OVC016 25/24 A2842 RMK AO2 PK WND 12083/2341 PRESFR SLP624 P0006 60341 T02500239 10261 20244 58211

Oddly enough SRQ does not seem to be transmitting nor does the ASOS report anything if you call it yet its definitely operating because the wind data is updating

SPG airport now gusting to 77kts

SRQ airport just gusted to 90 mph

It would not be that huge of a track error if this came up the bay, maybe on a straight line 20 miles from the NHC track yesterday, just more a case where it deviated a bit the direction opposite where most models were moving the final 1-2 days

Damn this better make that hook E in a few hours, if it does not its going into St Pete

00Z Euro makes landfall at St. Pete Beach

Both HAFS go into long boat key, the HMON goes into St Pete still. HWRF still most north into Johns Pass. worst track for Tampa by far

It should steadily do that all day into tomorrow night. I think it might still come in as weak as 110-115, NHC's 120-125 at landfall is about at the top end of everything. The surge definitely will be the main problem with this outside of the immediate areas that get in the eye wall.

The 00Z GFS/ICON have the worst imaginable tracks if you include wind damage/surge in that Tampa would probably avoid the worst surge but St Pete's east side would be obliterated when all the water that rushes in ahead of the storm then floods them on the NE flow when it makes landfall just south. Also, St Pete and Western Tampa would probably get into the NRN eyewall

At the very least I’d feel better now if I lived in fort Myers. You’d need a heck of a forecast error now to take a serious hit so at least the folks who got hit hard by Ian look likely to miss this