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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Once we flip back to a +PDO it'll likely be less of a problem since you'd tend to have a +PNA more often
  2. SnowGoose69
    It may have something to do with the crazy Atlantic SSTs which is why we keep seeing those -NAOs with SE ridges
  3. SnowGoose69
    The 12z EPS was not as wildly bad as the 00Z was. I find it funny the EPS/GEFS basically switched places the last 2-3 days beyond day 10
  4. SnowGoose69
    We were trying to figure out in the MA forum last winter why that seems to happen all the time now whereas 20-30 years ago it never did
  5. SnowGoose69
    Yeah it did seem that way. I recall a couple during the day but they always seemed to come in like 3-4pm. It might be like the Gulf or SE coast hurricanes always hit the US at night though, when you check the stats many did hit during the day but we don't remember them.
  6. SnowGoose69
    It never made sense to drop it as far south as some models were doing based on the ridge/trof positioning
  7. SnowGoose69
    Even when you look at 1989 and 2000 which were 2 of the coldest recent Decembers your coldest weather was 12/20 and after. To even get lows of like 22 degrees the first week requires an impressive air mass.
  8. SnowGoose69
    It probably ends up colder than the model numbers are spitting out, there can be a tendency for the guidance to skew towards whatever climo norms are at day 5-6-7
  9. SnowGoose69
    Last winter I noticed the GEFS tends to overreact sometimes to the forecast MJO plots it has. In general the GEFS overdoes the MJO while the EPS seems to underdo magnitude on the plots but the actual EPS/GEPS runs do not seem to have the same issue the GEFS has.
  10. SnowGoose69
    The GEFS keeps thinking we are in a La Nina or that the MJO is running the show. Its been attempting to break the pattern or retrograde that ridge west but keeps kicking the can. It also has now moved towards the the GEPS/EPS from the 5th-9th whereas 3-5 days ago it was quite mild because it had the ridge too far east.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Its fairly patchy outside of a big area from BVY down to BED. Another area in CT near Hartford and south
  12. SnowGoose69
    This could just be the start of everything caving vs a crazy NAM run. The RGEM not having moved towards the Euro was surprising but the GFS in these situations has held out before til 24-36 and the NAM til 48.
  13. SnowGoose69
    This looks like it will fail to reach Nina territory anyway. We might get to -0.5 briefly some time mid to late December but it could easily stay neutral the rest of the way. We have very little track record in recent years in the new climo of a neutral after Nino. 92-93 and 03-04 are the only things close and both were neutral warm while this is neutral cold. 80-81 was really the last neutral cold following a nino
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah Just the Op and even that is just a transient upper low riding the western edge of the ridge and just gets booted due north. The GEFS some of its recent runs is semi concerning as its flattening the western ridge somewhat. The GEFS has tended to be better with the pac the last few winters so we need to see if that continues
  15. SnowGoose69
    Anytime we have a sustained ridge out west like this you can usually assume the GFS will be too flat. It only beats the Euro regularly in those more progressive setups
  16. SnowGoose69
    One thing is for sure. The NAM at 84 is closer to the Euro idea than anything else.
  17. SnowGoose69
    We probably want the MJO to remain fairly weak this winter as the SST anomalies more or less argue it should spend most of the time in 3-4-5
  18. SnowGoose69
    I like the 06z ICON idea, sort of between both models
  19. SnowGoose69
    The euro overamped bias in the 120-144 range sort of went away the last 1-2 years because it had a minor upgrade in 2022 I think. I would be surprised if this ended up as flat as the GFS. It'll probably be something between the two where at least most areas see some rain which is needed.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Its hard to believe that not a single shortwave or disturbance can produce a storm in that 11/30-12/5 period.
  21. SnowGoose69
    we all know models have this right where we want it right now
  22. SnowGoose69
    That was the winter they had like 35 inches of snow in Dec then had 5 or 6 inches the entire remainder of the winter
  23. SnowGoose69
    Its been hard to know in recent years if the MJO is really the problem or its just coincidentally been in bad phases when the Pac has otherwise been bad. Many of those winters such as 93-94 95-96 00-01 02-03 03-04 09-10 10-11 13-14 all had the MJO in bad phases and yet the pattern was still favorable here.
  24. SnowGoose69
    95 and 00 only 2 I remember that were cold the whole way and even 95 I think the final week was somewhat mild.
  25. SnowGoose69
    The GEFS is almost a -EPO/+PNA...really everything is which is why I question somewhat if heights on the W Coast or Rockies will be that high as in recent years any true +PNA has been rare.
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