SnowGoose69

Macon is gonna be close. They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them. Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though

Yeah I heard that. Makes no sense as just an hour or two ago they showed 50 which to me makes most sense and that might not happen til 10-11Z when the W-NW sting jet gets them

I think the only mistake was the 11am issuance. They went W only to have to go back E again thereafter. Maybe holding it steady was right idea. I'd have played the split between the hurricane models and globals a bit more dead even than they did the last 2 days for sure

TLH having it pass E won't be quite as beneficial as ATL having it pass E. The winds will still be real bad on that W side at landfall, now if it goes 30-40 miles E of TLH then maybe they get a big break

Seems reasonable now. 140-145 would not surprise me

The 3k NAM has been showing for a couple of days once the pressure goes above 968 or so is when the NW tug begins. Its not anything highly scientific but it probably does indicate that if this goes into the 930s given how fast its moving it might end up much further E over GA.

St Marks was my guess an hour ago. I'd be surprised if it did NOT go west of Perry, again, sometimes these love making right wobbles in the final hour before making landfall though

I just think its unlikely in 2024 the high res models would miss that degree of a capture this close in and now that its going to become a 4 I think it'll make it even harder for it to get pulled W of N til its well into GA though it might move 360-010 after landfall. I'd feel confident now saying it will pass E of ATL, would not put a mileage on it but would say at least 30. Ultimately not a massive error on the current track, it just seems big because it would make a huge difference in a big city.

Its wobbled north last 30 mins but it looks like it may go smack between the NHC track and the UKMET. I am not certain as of now it'll make it over into that clustered region of plots

Tendency with big storms is to have an east bias.

NHC might be committed now. Not sure they're gonna make any E moves now, they've sort of layed out the reasoning and might go down with the ship somewhat

Based on current radar of center I'd lean it does come in E of TLH but a few wobbles will change that

Euro LF no different than 06z run...its probably too far east as its east of the NHC track. Over N-CNTRL GA it ticked east again

FOX WX forecasting 90 mph gusts in ATL

The HMON is the only cane model on tidbits showing any semblance of a N or NNW track over GA and its still 70 miles E of the NHC track

Those HAFS/HWRF/HMON I notice too are not capturing the 10m winds inland. My experience has been the HRRR max 10m wind product verifies well with these inland once inside 8 hours.

HAFS-B first 12z in nearly same LF point as 06z but slower, close to NHC LF point

Recently they've had some events where they've had decent sized misses, not necessarily on LF but post LF to a degree as I have said may be the case here.

I think their LF Point is gonna be right, TBH it may even be a bit west of that but their motion afterwards through the body of FL into GA I'd be surprised if it did not verify 50 or so miles too far W

The stranger thing is how far west they continue to be over GA

The 3KM NAM continues to show that tendency of not wanting to capture and hook til its 965-970 or weaker.

The core of those is mostly dead on the current NHC track, wonder if they will keep shifting east though. As you said, the ultimate LF point looks like its maybe on east end of that

I think the current NHC track is 40 miles or so E of the 5pm yesterday Its east of ATL by a nose

The 925mb winds are fairly unimpressive on the west side of this once it reaches ATL’s latitude. I could see them not even hitting 40kts if this passes 30-50 miles east of them. There isn’t a big high to the north over the Oh Valley or Midwest so you don’t really have anything aiding the pressure gradient with the storm once it gets 100 miles or more inland so really only near and barely east of the center would likely see winds capable of very nasty damage but ATL itself even with 35-40kts could see probably a few hundred thousand lose power

Looks like their first east adjustment in awhile, albeit not much