SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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00Z Euro makes landfall at St. Pete Beach
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Both HAFS go into long boat key, the HMON goes into St Pete still. HWRF still most north into Johns Pass. worst track for Tampa by far
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It should steadily do that all day into tomorrow night. I think it might still come in as weak as 110-115, NHC's 120-125 at landfall is about at the top end of everything. The surge definitely will be the main problem with this outside of the immediate areas that get in the eye wall.
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The 00Z GFS/ICON have the worst imaginable tracks if you include wind damage/surge in that Tampa would probably avoid the worst surge but St Pete's east side would be obliterated when all the water that rushes in ahead of the storm then floods them on the NE flow when it makes landfall just south. Also, St Pete and Western Tampa would probably get into the NRN eyewall
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At the very least I’d feel better now if I lived in fort Myers. You’d need a heck of a forecast error now to take a serious hit so at least the folks who got hit hard by Ian look likely to miss this
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18Z Euro similar to 12Z...it does continue to take that hard ENE movement late just S of Tampa
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HMON 896mb at 09z tonight so far. HAFS B does look like it might shift closer to the NHC track but its not in far enough yet
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I think most of us 2 days ago expected this might make it to a 4, perhaps a 5, so if we assumed it would be 130-140mph now vs the 170 it likely is the expectation of a 110-125 storm at landfall was reasonable. Its still possible though the shear coupled with another likely ERC means this could weaken significantly on approach
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I am wondering if perhaps these hurricane models overreact to wobbles or the system deviating out of the cone. I cannot recall if Helene had multiple occasions of being N or W of the cone or not, obviously the 6 hour cone position is not huge so the system deviating out of it might not impact track at 36-48. But now the storm is E-S of the cone so not sure that led to the 18Z guidance being south whereas global models are not as sensitive. Would have to ask someone who is way more modeling experienced.
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50-75. Most models went over AHN in GA they were at times along the GA/AL Border
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Difference this time is the globals and the HWRF are not in disagreement as much from those models as they were last time
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The HWRF/HMON/HAFs were with the globals, it was the NHC cane models on the spaghetti plots that were way west
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HWRF/HAFS-B 12Z runs are closest on MSLP and likely evolution next 12-18 hours, one is directly into the bay, the other still wants to be more north (HWRF)
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Euro again LF around Anna Maria to Bradenton Beach. Still wonder if such a hard hook is realistic or as typical the storm will try to ride out over water or hold a NNE component longer before it moves ashore
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Depends, it may be hooking somewhat hard at LF so I think if it comes in over SRQ its probably missing metro TB, if it comes in N of metro Sarasota then definitely it could hit eastern side of the metro
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ICON ticked back north again
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The biggest concern for Tampa so far is the HAFS-A/B and HWRF still take this in over Clearwater or north and they were fairly close in the last storm
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My memory has gotten really bad. I probably want to forget that week since for a good day all the models had it hitting New York City then in one shot they all moved south
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Isabel i believe never came close to its initial peak strength. I was working that week and recall it made it back to maybe a a weak 3 but that was all
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I’ve never seen a cat 4 or 5 have a second peak after an ERC higher than the first from what I remember. It’s probably happened at some point but it’s rare
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Euro landfall looks like around St Pete beach
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Its a small storm so an ERC which appears likely in the next 18-24 hours likely takes it to a 2-3, it may then strengthen again slightly but probably remains a 3, it should then get impacted by shear. I think it comes in between 110-130mph
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I don't think we see that significant of a track error, it'll probably make deviations E once it feels the impact of the land mass and miss. I could see it coming within 20-30 miles but not moving onshore
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The shear direction continues to be problematic based on storm movement. I am not sure 25kts at shear from 215 is going to be enough to have a meaningful weakening impact
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What I never understood about small storms with small eyes is why they rapidly strengthen but that they seem to weaken way more following ERCs than big storms do. You’d think it would be the opposite of that but you think of Patricia or Opal those things straight up got killed by ERCs. Then again both also made landfall soon after so we don’t really know if they had another day or two over water what might have happened
